Week 3 Review: 4-1. Winners: Cincinnati -3.5, Auburn-PSU under 52, Stanford -12.5 and Florida +14.5. Losers: Purdue leg of Purdue+MSU moneyline parlay.
Back after a very profitable Week 3 which was a Purdue win away from being essentially 13-0 given the +905 odds of the parlay. We’re starting to get a firmer grasp of what to expect from teams, so more advantages will be found by identifying teams in unfamiliar spots (eg. coming off a big win, strong road favorite, etc) than a soft lines that reflect an uncertain perception of teams. Lets get to it with more winners!
Bet 1: Texas Tech at Texas over 62 (-115) (11am CT, ABC; all odds via PointsBet)
It’s early, but there’s more optimism surrounding the Texas Tech program than many expected to see in year three under head coach Matt Wells. Oregon transfer QB Tyler Shough has been solid in leading them to a 3-0 start, only having an off day in their Week 2 win over FCS Stephen F. Austin. While 62 total points would be the highest scoring game of Steve Sarkisian’s brief Longhorn stint, it would be a fairly low total between these two teams. Five of the last six games in this series have in fact had 75 points or more. The reason for the slightly lower than expected total are mainly on Texas’s side. The defense is slightly improved from 2020 (when Arkansas isn’t running it down their throat), and the offense hasn’t kicked into gear yet. Familiarity between these two will breed more offensive confidence and just a semi-shootout will do between these two.
Bet 2: Rutgers at Michigan under 50 (2:30pm CT, ABC)
Greg Schiano’s continuously improving squad would love nothing more than for this game to be in the single digits all the way into the 4th quarter. Unfortunately for him, that may only be the case for his team, but that will be to our good fortune. The Wolverines are favored by 20.5, which is steep against a defense as stingy as Rutgers’ has been. They aren’t worth betting because the offense has been as mediocre as the defense has been strong, but this game will be anything but a back and forth scoring affair. Something like 28-7 will keep us comfortably on the winning side.
Bet 3: North Carolina St +10 vs Clemson (2:30pm CT, ESPN)
It’s looks like the last chance to buy low on Clemson opponents as they stray further and further from the Watson-Lawrence standard. There’s no doubt Dabo when through his bag of motivational tricks this week after the ugly performance against Georgia Tech, but he needs more than messaging to fix this offense. It’s not the same under DJ Uiagalelei as it was in prior years. The spacing isn’t what it was and the field isn’t being stretched as we’ve become used to during this CFP era run. The defense may be strong enough to give them enough chances to escape, but covering 10 is a tough ask against a remotely competent defense such as NC St’s, mind you they held Miss St to just 316 yards in their lone defeat.
Bet 4: Arizona St -14 vs Colorado (9:30pm CT, ESPNU)
ASU is typically a lousy cover, but the Colorado offense is something you make exceptions for. They’re must bet against bad at this point. Credit to Minnesota for holding them to just 63 yards in their 30-0 shutout win, but nobody is confusing that defense for Georgia’s. ASU is going to load the box and force Colorado to pass to move the ball, which they cannot do. It’s not going to be entertaining, but it’s going to cover in a 34-6 type way (total is 45, not a ton of room to thread the ASU with under needle).
Best Bet: Kansas St +180 ML at Oklahoma St (6pm CT, ESPN+)
Can KSU handle the prosperity of the last spot in this week’s AP Top 25? I think so. There’s a small danger of a lookahead factor with Oklahoma as their next game after OK St, but the latter is formidable enough, and K St not talented enough, for the Cowboys to be taken lightly. OK St gutted out a win at Boise last week, but it was not a thing of beauty, including a scoreless second half. K St has serious momentum and good coaching. They aren’t going to let an inferior team trip them up this early. The mediocre-at-best Spencer Sanders offense catches up with OK St at home with a mild upset.
Good luck to all! (7-5 ATS on the season)