Two-week heater, trying to make it three …
Week 4 Review: 4-1. Winners: Texas-Texas Tech over 62, Rutgers-Michigan under 50, NC St +10, and Arizona St -14. Losers: Kansas St moneyline.
2021 continues to unfold as a more chaos riddled season than the CFP-era has conditioned fans to cynically think was possible. Clemson has taken a clear step back, which we could see unfolding ahead of last weeks loss to NC St, and Texas A&M confirmed suspicions they were overrated as well. Ohio St is operating with no margin for era to make the playoff, and Oklahoma has looked more and more vulnerable by the drive. This upheaval is unlikely to stop all of a sudden.
Bet 1: Wisconsin -2 vs Michigan (11am CT, Fox; all odds via PointsBet)
As bad as Wisconsin was in the 4th quarter against Notre Dame, undefeated Michigan is sure to be favored. Right? Wrong. Rutgers second half defense brought Michigan’s top tier viability into plain sight. Going up against Jim Leonhard’s defense is not the recipe for figuring things out. Mertz will be good enough. If not, the Badger program is really in unfamiliar territory, something the still-elite defense will save them from.
Bet 2: Duke at North Carolina over 72.5 (-115) (11am CT, ESPN2)
Duke is getting 20 points in this game, which I think is too much given what the QB Holmberg and RB Durant have been doing since their opening faceplant against Charlotte. But given the way in which points will be scored in this game, 20 is smaller than it otherwise would be. Last week’s Texas-TT game is the perfect example of why I’d rather just play the total in such a shootout.
Bet 3: Rutgers +15 vs Ohio St (2:30pm CT, BTN)
Rutgers was pretty clear in their comeback at Michigan that ultimately fell short, that they are no fluke through one month. Could the stress of Ohio St’s more dynamic offense ultimately tear the fighting Schiano’s apart? Sure, it’s possible, but not likely. This is not a team you want to play with a QB not quite at 100% and with a run defense that was gouged the last time the opponent made for a remotely fair fight. It’s not going to be another 10ypc day for TreVeyon Henderson. OSU better come out strong like Michigan did just to win outright.
Bet 4: Indiana at Penn St under 53.5 (6:30pm CT, ABC)
Penn St should be highly motivated to avenge last year’s heartbreaking opener decided in molecular detail by overtime review. Michael Penix Jr of 2021 to date doesn’t look like formidable competition, but Penn St’s offense has averaged just 22ppg vs their two P5 opponents so far. Look for Penn St to win fairly comfortably, but impress more with their defense along the lines of 31-10.
Best Bet: Ole Miss +14.5 at Alabama (2:30pm CT, CBS)
I think Ole Miss will win outright, and the +460 moneyline is well worth the risk, but getting 14.5 deserves the majority of your money in this game. This spread is treating Alabama like they’re 2020’s unstoppable force. News flash! They aren’t. Oh, but they beat 2-3 Miami soundly you say?! Bryce Young may very well have a Heisman in his future, but it won’t be this year. Oregon over Ohio St was chapter one, NC St over Clemson chapter two, and this will be chapter three. You can’t have the core of your roster drafted, let all the other teams bring back super seniors for another run, and not become more vulnerable. Enjoy and profit of the change while it lasts!
Good luck to all! (11-6 ATS on the season)