Get right week hopefully

Week 6 Review: 1-4. Winner: Utah +130 moneyline. Losers: South Carolina-Tennessee under 56.5, UNC -17, Auburn +15, and VT-ND under 47.

Consecutive 1-4 weeks, and just like that my consecutive 4-1 weeks have been reduced to a 4 week stretch where we’re down the juice (not quite the full amount given Utah ML’s extra 0.3). And less safety teams to look for this week with consistent covers of Michigan, Ohio St and Penn St all on a bye. Going against the UGA machine proved to be a mistake, but I maintain that the game was very poorly managed by Brian Harsin. The analytics-fueled 4th down aggressiveness has gotten out of hand. Against a defense like UGA’s, you don’t just casually risk 4th and goal from the 4. Avoiding empty trips has to be a higher priority. The goal is to keep it a game and give yourself a chance late, not take huge risks before the clock gives you no other option. UNC is mess, there’s no defending that degree of wrong. Best I can do is not repeat my mistake.

Bet 1: Auburn +4.5 at Arkansas (11am CT, CBS; all odds via PointsBet)

Some 4.5’s are larger than others, and I think this qualifies under the former. There isn’t a large disparity of talent in either direction in this game. Arkansas needs to defend its home turf and get back on track after consecutive road losses to UGA and Ole Miss, but the 11am kick isn’t going to be the most intense atmosphere Fayetteville can offer. Playing a non-UGA defense should feel like 12-on-11 for Bo Nix at times, and while Arkansas may find a way to pull it out in the end, it’s a tight game where getting points ends up being decisive.

Bet 2: Florida at LSU over 59.5 (11:00am CT, ESPN)

Whether LSU is able to keep it close or not will come down to whether the offense keeps pace minus Kayshon Boutte, but there should be little doubt of Florida putting up 40+ points on an LSU defense who’s simultaneously both playing worse and getting more injury ravaged than at any point in recent memory. The lack of a run game is going to make it tough for LSU to shorten the game on the ground, so they’re living or dying on Max Johnson through the air.

Bet 3: Duke +320 moneyline at Virginia (11:30am CT, Charter Sports SE)

Virginia might be better, but the gap is not big enough to pass up these odds in an ACC Coastal matchup. UVA is coming off a comeback escape against Louisville, while Duke is trying to rebound after their first home loss to Georgia Tech. It comes down to Duke having solid offensive weapons and UVA’s run of luck catching up to them. Look for Jake Bobo to have a big day receiving as the Cavaliers load the box to limit Durant.

Bet 4: Iowa St -6.5 at Kansas St (6:30pm CT, ESPN2)

Both teams come in off their bye. All else being equal, that situation should slightly favor the better team. Iowa St is in the Texas A&M mold of preseason top 10 team with 2 losses trying to claw their way back into the discussion as a threat to win the B12. To come out flat after a week off would be a bad look for Matt Campbell’s boys. This should be just another step in ISU’s climb back to the B12 Championship Game. If they win every game, while still losing to Oklahoma, there’s a good chance 7-2 will get them a rematch.

Best Bet: Texas Tech -18.5 at Kansas (3:00pm CT, ESPN+)

Kansas opponent, how formulaic. I wish I could be more innovative, but a win is a win, and I need them. Texas Tech occupies the perfect spot on the college football hierarchy where they’re embarrassed by good teams, but dependably embarrass the teams on the bottom rung. While TCU buried them at home in the first half last week, TT’s offense remained explosive putting up over 550 yards outgaining TCU. Kansas is the perfect draw if you want to keep gaining 500+ yards, but would like to win convincingly in doing so. A close game versus Kansas is practically a scarlet letter, and this aspiring mid-tier B12 team isn’t about to start wearing one.

Should be a strong week with some momentum as we edge toward November. (13-14 ATS on the season)

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