This week I have listed the current standings and the projected standings through week 14 if all current highest placed teams win out. Under this scenario, Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State would advance to our four team playoff. Michigan does not actually control its destiny as it needs the Buckeyes to beat Michigan State to set up a playoff elimination game between the Wolverines and Ohio State in Ann Arbor in two weeks. If Oregon wins out, I would expect the committee to pick the Ducks over a 12-1 Oklahoma State despite their projected seventh place finish in the Power Points Standings. The Ducks need a lot of help to finish in our top four. Wake Forest and UTSA would need a loss or two among teams projected to place ahead of them if they are to finish in the top four. Notre Dame is a long shot but still in contention. Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan State basically control their top four destinies if they win out. Several other teams are mathematically alive but even if they win out, they would need seven or more games to flip projected results for that to happen.
There is one week left until Selection Sunday. The projected standings list automatic qualifiers in blue. At-large teams are listed in red. Sam Houston State, UT Martin, and Holy Cross have clinched auto bids. North Dakota State, East Tennessee State, Villanova, Kennesaw State, Incarnate Word, Davidson, Mercer, and Sacred Heart control their conference championship destinies. East Tennessee State hosts Mercer with the Southern Conference title at stake and Kennesaw State hosts Monmouth for the Big South title. Under the projected scenario, Mercer must win to make the playoffs. Montana State and Sacramento State finish on the road against projected playoff qualifiers Montana and UC Davis respectively. If they both win or both lose, they would tie for the Big Sky title. The two teams did not meet during the regular season. Therefore, I do not know who gets the auto bid if they do tie. Montana State is a lock to make our field no matter what happens. Sacramento State needs to win to qualify. However, I expect that the committee would pick an 8-3 Sacramento State over 6-5 Jacksonville State if this scenario played. Besides Sacramento State and Mercer, Eastern Kentucky is the only other team outside the projected playoff field that controls its destiny. Several teams slotted behind South Dakota are still in playoff contention but need help to qualify.