It was a rough Week 9, 1-4 ATS, at least hitting the best bet for a 2.38 unit net loss. Two close losses were in ACC games with UNC-Pitt going over by a half point, and FSU covering by 2 against Georgia Tech. The third close loss took place out west when Cal +17 lost by 18 to Oregon. Minnesota came through comfortably as a home favorite to keep us in it, as we now enter the CFP rankings dominated portion of the college football schedule. Two top-10 matchups on the board including the monster in Athens between Tennessee and Georgia, does either side offer offer value?
Bet 1: Texas A&M -3 (-110) vs Florida (11:00am CT Sat 11/5, ESPN; all odds via PointsBet)
Aggies continue to be up against the wall after falling to 3-5 on a 4-game losing streak following their home loss to Ole Miss last week. But there’s more reason for optimism than the message board mockery would suggest. It makes the Ole Miss loss worse, but A&M looked dominant at times, especially the first half, of that game. The offensive line was generating chunk plays routinely, and the defensive athleticism was flashing. This is going to be a rough day for Anthony Richardson and the often one-dimensional Gator offense.
Bet 2: Missouri -110 moneyline vs Kentucky (11:00am CT Sat 11/5, SECN)
I’m not really sure what Kentucky is playing for at this point. After reaching #7 in the AP to start October, they’ve lost 3 of 4, including a home loss to South Carolina. Mizzou is going the opposite direction, and while their 3-point home win vs Vandy doesn’t inspire confidence, they took Georgia to the wire in the home game that preceded it. I don’t think the Tigers are cocky enough to look past UK towards their date with Tennessee next week, and instead they’ll ride a 3-game winning streak into it.
Bet 3: Baylor at Oklahoma over 61.5 (2:00pm CT Sat 11/5, ESPN+)
Weather is all clear, sunny, low 60’s. The OU offense has regained its stride thanks to a fully healthy Dillon Gabriel, while the defense still hasn’t erased the problems that led to losses to K St, TCU and Texas. Baylor is averaging 40pts/gm their last three. The time is right for a return to the shootouts these teams delivered during the Baker Mayfield-Kyler Murray era.
Bet 4: LSU +13.5 (-110) vs Alabama (6:00pm CT Sat 11/5, ESPN)
Alabama has just been too shaky on the road to stay away from LSU and Brian Kelly getting this many points. Both sides fear a repeat of their Tennessee fate – LSU being blown out at home, Bama getting upset on the road. It likely lands in the middle with Bryce Young pulling it out, but the Tide defense has not been close to dominant enough to stay away. If this is where Saban kicks it into gear after a year and a half of road malaise, so be it. I’ll take the chance.
Best Bet (2 Units): Michigan -26 (-110) vs Rutgers (6:30pm CT Sat 11/5, BTN)
The Rutgers fade is becoming somewhat of a staple here in the best bet section. The Minnesota game played to a T, and Michigan should come in a little salty off their initial CFP ranking. Sure, Korsak can probably flip the field a few times as he did against Minnesota to prolong the inevitable, but the lack of offense will catch up to them, even if they’re game for a half. Harbaugh doesn’t have the leash to play too cute and vanilla to avoid any tape. November is style points season.
Last week: 1-4, -2.38. Season: 13-16-1, -1.66 units.