I can only hope Week 7 was rock bottom. 0-5, -6.4, and not even a close call among them. If Dan Mullen couldn’t get enough out of Emory Jones to keep his job, why the hell did I think he could lead Cincinnati to wins? This year’s Auburn team keeping it close in Death Valley – cliched, at best. Mike Locksley laying 13.5 against another B1G team – I should be arrested. My thinking had gotten stale to the point of falling for every logical fallacy the schedule offered. If I’m going to go down in Week 8, it won’t be from the same error. This is an SVP-esque contrarian set. Whatever the public likes, I hate. If it doesn’t make sense, lean in! (chronological, best bet aside)
Bet 1: Ohio St -5.5 (-104) vs Penn St (11:00am CT Sat 10/21, FOX; all odds via FanDuel)
Everybody likes PSU, but the number keeps moving OSU’s way. PSU’s defense is probably the best single unit in this game, but the advantage of having been tested at Notre Dame should pay big dividends here. Just throwing it to Marvin Harrison Jr (don’t know why he isn’t getting more Heisman attention), is something that can beat a great defense, I don’t see the PSU’s version of that. PSU has the edge in prep time, but there’s no way to develop the confidence of the ND win other than going out and doing it. We’ll see if Allar meets the moment the way McCord already has.
Bet 2: Washington St +760 moneyline at Oregon (11:00am CT Sat 10/21, ABC)
Wazzu is reeling! 44 unanswered at home vs Arizona is the perfect segue to a top 10 road upset. Taking the 19.5 might seem more logical, but +760 for a team that was ranked 13th, still has Cam Ward healthy, and had Oregon on the ropes last year, makes more sense to me. After all, if the Ducks lose, at least we know Dan Lanning is a big boy who can handle the criticism. Everything is still in front of Oregon. The CFP is still right there for them, it just starts with a home win against a Wazzu squad that has completely lost its way.
Bet 3: Tennessee +8.5 (-110) at Alabama (2:30pm CT Sat 10/21, CBS)
Joe Milton hasn’t been remotely close to as good as Hendon Hooker in leading the Vol offense. In their only road game so far UT was thoroughly outclassed in The Swamp. At home versus Texas A&M last week Milton recorded season lows in yardage, completion percentage, TD’s and passer rating (11-22, 100, 1-1). Alabama seemed to really be catching their stride through two and half quarters against Arkansas. The QB controversy is a distant memory, and national writers have seemed to settle on an “inevitability” to the Tide, a complete 180 from the justifiable panic caused by a 10-3 game against South Florida until the final seconds. Perfect spot for Alabama to extract revenge for last year’s classic, so bet Tennessee.
Bet 4: Northwestern +10.5 (-110) at Nebraska (2:30pm CT Sat 10/21, BTN)
My Wildcats have looked awful in their first two road games at, admittedly decent/good, Rutgers and Duke. Losing margins of 17 and 24 respectively, made more respectable by late TD’s each time. Starting QB Ben Bryant still might not be back, and FCS Howard outscored them 20-7 in their last half, before proceeding to lose to Harvard 48-7. Nebraska on the other hand, is off their first bye week of the Matt Rhule era, which fell after their best game of the season, suffocating the Illini 20-7 in Champaign. This spread should be UNL -17.5. How the hell is NU going to move the ball? They sure as hell won’t be able to run it, and pass pro is mediocre enough to allow 4 sacks to Howard after 7, including one to knockout QB1, vs PSU. Nebraska makes too much sense.
Best Bet (2 units): Indiana +5.5 (-105) vs Rutgers (11:00am CT Sat 10/21, BTN)
Rutgers is pretty good, Indiana isn’t. Rutgers just had an incredible 18-point fourth quarter comeback to get within a game of 6 win bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014. Indiana is 2-19 vs the B1G since 2021, fired their offensive coordinator, and just lost 52-7. The only question left – why not +180 moneyline?
Week 7: 0-5, -6.4 units; Season: 17-21, -8.14 units. Good (bad?) luck!