Week 8 was the nice bounce back going 3-2 for a +1.93 unit net result. Syracuse easily covered at Clemson, as did best bet Louisville in their two touchdown win over Pitt. Several big games this Saturday with multiple undefeated teams playing away from home, we can only hope for chaos similar to Tennessee’s instant classic over Alabama two weeks ago.
Bet 1: Auburn +3.5 (-112) vs Arkansas (11:00am CT Sat 10/29, SECN; all odds via PointsBet)
Can’t resist the home underdog off a bye, lame duck coach be damned. Arkansas is also off a bye after ending their 3-game losing streak at BYU. This is going to be a clunky game similar to Mizzou-Auburn earlier this year. Some +3.5’s are larger than others, and Jordan-Haire produces enough close games that this provides more protection than most. Auburn has won 6 straight in this series last losing at home in 2012, when they went winless in the SEC. Tigers win outright or lose close.
Bet 2: Georgia Tech +23 (-107) at Florida St (11:00am CT Sat 10/29, ACCN)
Only the second meeting of these cross-divisional opponents since 2015. FSU hasn’t beaten GT since Jameis Winston was playing QB. The Noles come in off a bye on a 3-game losing streak while GT played their first bad game under interim coach Brent Key last Thursday in a home loss to Virginia. 23 is just too many points given the improvement since Geoff Collins was let go. The wild card here is the status of GT starting QB Jeff Sims. An ankle injury took him out of the UVA game and was a large part of the loss, however, he was reportedly a full practice participant as of Wednesday, as communicated by his QB coach, none other than FSU Heisman winner Chris Weinke. If there is any wisdom to impart about the Doak Campbell atmosphere, Sims will be getting it.
Bet 3: Cal +17 (-112) vs Oregon (2:30pm CT Sat 10/29, FS1)
Oregon was unquestionably impressive in their big home win over UCLA last week, but this spot reeks of a letdown. Getting up for a team that lost to Colorado isn’t easy. Cal’s offense woke up in the second half vs Washington and Purdue transfer QB Jack Plummer will look to build on it. Justin Wilcox is formidable as an underdog going a very impressive 25-10 ATS as an underdog. Oregon played near perfect football last week, expect a reversion to the mean.
Bet 4: Pitt at North Carolina under 65.5 (-107) (7:00pm CT Sat 10/29, ACCN)
This game has a stinky line with UNC favored by just 3 at home against a team that’s lost two of its last 3 and isn’t contending for anything in the ACC. This is going to be an ugly game with UNC due for a slip up after consecutive 3-point wins to reach 3-0 in conference. They might escape with a win even cover, but it’s not going to be the back-and-forth offensive battle the total implies.
Best Bet (2 Units): Minnesota -14 (-112) vs Rutgers (1:30pm CT Sat 10/29, BTN)
Two teams coming in off opposite results. Rutgers pulled off a 14-point home comeback for their first B1G win over Indiana, Minnesota was dominated by Penn St having to rely on their backup QB in a very tough situation. PJ Fleck has been coy, but Tanner Morgan should be back for the Gophers, but even if it’s Kaliakmanis again, all is not lost. Rutgers is playing with house money, Minnesota absolutely needs this game to get their season back on track. Rutgers was outscored 80-3 following B1G wins last year, and look for Minnesota’s defense to keep them down in a 31-3 type game.
Last week: 3-2, +1.93. Season: 12-12-1, +0.72 units.