The Rivalry Week gods were smiling down on me delivering the 4-1 results we needed to be on the cusp of a winning season going into the CFP and bowls. I was rockheaded in my commitment to Cristobal stumbling on the way to the house, but otherwise nothing to criticize as Houston, BYU and Northwestern all covered, and best bet Wazzu did the same in style (+4.0). With just five Saturday CCG’s on the board, I’m doing three total plays including the usual 2-unit press.
Speaking honestly, I feel like I’m in some alternate universe when it comes to the B1G CG. From where I stand, conference championships have been reduced to a means to an end – entry into the playoff, a bye, or a home game. But winning the playoff is goal. Patrick Mahomes kept winning the AFC West, but that was just a stop on the way. In today’s college football, the B1G CG should be seen for what it is, a neutral site game where both teams should be as protective of their key players as an NFL team in Week 18 with the one seed clinched. On top of that, the CFP committee has an open policy of penalizing teams for key injuries. If an NFL coach was stupid enough to let a star get injured, they’d still have their seed and bye waiting for them. Here, if Fernando Mendoza gets knocked out, they can take away equity you’ve earned. Why isn’t the media screaming this? They changed the rules. Participants should act accordingly. It’s okay to admit the B1G CG doesn’t offer the teams enough to justify risk in this crazy system where the injury is held punitively against you. Rant over. On to the picks!
Bet 1: BYU +12.5 (-108) vs Texas Tech (11:00am CT Sat 12/6, ABC; all odds via Draftkings on ESPN scoreboard)
Taking the opposite side of Texas Tech is bold, but few games force tough choices. Given my position on the B1G, obviously I question how much Tech truly has to play for. The committee is going to take away their bye for losing a rematch, so an idle team can move on up? I don’t buy it. BYU will have the wind of ND Hater Nation at their backs and the benefit of not playing in Lubbock, even if it’s turf friendlier to the Red Raiders. Kilani Sitake recommitting in spite of PSU interest should be good for their pep. BYU has more than proved their mettle to give TTU a one-possession game. Let’s get a throwback to the 2022 game where TCU had banked enough equity that KSU could win the conference and both ended up happy.
Bet 2: Duke vs Virginia over 57.5 (-115) (7:00pm CT Sat 12/6, ABC)
Under no circumstances should Duke make the CFP with a win. I don’t know the specific threshold G6 champ or other team that benefits, but 5 losses is too many, and two were blowouts at home. But Duke doesn’t accept this, and I think they’re going to be extremely aggressive in this game. If things go well, the reality setting in for UVA will force them to try and match, and if it’s going poorly, Manny Diaz’s guys are just going to keep taking shots. Hyper aggression turning into a clock-running under is a tough de-escalation trick to pull off, and I see Mensah, Morris, or both generating big pass plays.
Best Bet (2 units): Alabama +105 moneyline vs Georgia (3:00pm CT Sat 12/6, ABC)
Kalen DeBoer breaks all the rules in games like this. I think it remains the case and he backs up his regular season win over Georgia the way hid did against Oregon and Lanning two years ago in the Pac-12 CG. Oregon was a greater favorite in that one, but Washington winning outright as a dog defied crazy ironclad trends that favored Oregon ATS then. There’s something about the aggression he and Ryan Grubb are committed to that produces an edge. Some of the dumbest takes this week were those trying to downplay their win in Jordan-Hare on account of Auburn’s SEC record and coaching situation. Don’t get it twisted, that place is hell for visitors, especially in the Tide game. Kirby has shown the opposite of any type of je ne sais quoi in SEC CG’s to tell DeBoer, “not on my watch!” Given you injured your QB in this game last year, just accept the bye in your back pocket.
Good luck! Week 14: 4-1 (+4.0 units); Season: 33-37 (-0.3 units)
