I’m not much of a casino guy, but when I go I like to play roulette.
It’s not the most exciting game in the world considering my system. I bet on the same number over and over – generally 26 – then play the corners and sides surrounding it, just waiting for it to hit. I never deviate from 26 because that’s when the ball would ultimately land on it. If it hits, it is generally a nice payout. If after a certain amount of time it never lands, then I know it isn’t my day at the wheel and move on.
So what does this have to do with a college football-centric column primarily devoted to the Group of Five? Because this week I am heading out to Las Vegas.
The reasons are many. I will be going to The Sphere and a few casinos of course, but I will also be taking in a Sportsbook or two during the Thursday and Friday football games. And what will I be doing while there? Betting on red of course.
With that in mind, I wanted to highlight a few of the Week One games that might be flying under the radar in the midst of all the OSU/Texas and Notre Dame-Miami talk. You’ll notice a theme I’m sure.
Thursday
Jacksonville St. @ UCF (-18)
Your reigning, defending, undisputed CUSA Champs are the Jacksonville St. Gamecocks. But with Rich Rod taking the country roads home to West Virginia, JSU will look a little different. However, their opener is against a UCF Knights squad that is reportedly starting Cam Fancher. Florida Atlantic and Marshall fans probably got PTSD reading that sentence. New Gamecock quarterback Gavin Wimsatt has played in both the Big 10 and the SEC (Rutgers and Kentucky respectively) so he won’t be intimidated by the Bounce House. Keep and eye on former TCU running back Cam Cook as well.
Miami OH @ Wisconsin (-17.5)
If you remember Wisconsin’s 2024 season opener, it was a Friday night game at Camp Randall against a MAC team (Western Michigan). The final was 28-14 Badgers, but the game was much closer than the score would indicate. Fast Forward to 2025. You have a Wisconsin team considered not as good as last year’s against a MAC squad likely to be better than WMU was last year.
The RedHawks are expected to be one of the top teams in the MAC. Dequon Finn – who made his name for in-state rival Toledo – returns after realizing the grass is not greener in the Power 5 thanks to an unsuccessful stint at Baylor. I sense it won’t take him long to regain the form that made him one of the top QBs in the conference in 2023. Keep an eye on this line, as 17 is a significant number when betting on football (Gambling tip: Always think in terms of 7s and 3s.) so take those points while you can.
Friday
UNLV (-13) @ Sam Houston
These two teams will have two games under their belt before many play their first. God bless Week Zero.
Neither team likely instilled a ton of confidence in their fan bases after Saturday’s performances. UNLV almost had an early submission for Upset of the Year before holding off Idaho St. 38-31. Meanwhile, Sam Houston had a third quarter lead against Western Kentucky for a hot minute before the Hilltoppers pulled away for a 41-24 win. Both teams have coaches known for being offensive masterminds, but with Dan Mullen and Phil Longo still new at each position, there are some kinks to work out.
Sam Houston has a decent running game with former Power 4 RBs Alton McCaskill and Elijah Green, but they can’t fall behind in order to use them most effectively. If the Rebels get their quarterback situation figured out, I trust them to be able to pull away (by at least two touchdowns) at Sam Houston’s temporary home.
Central Michigan @ San Jose St. (-12.5)
Full disclosure: Of all the games I am highlighting following the theme, this is the one I feel the least confident about.
Central Michigan and new Head Coach Matt Drinkall are expected to be a run-heavy team considering his service academy background coming from Army. Again, since we are talking about Week One with a new coach, expect some fine tuning to be needed. And travelling cross country against a team that has pretty high expectations in the Mountain West isn’t the place to work out kinks. (If you are the type to make the 50-50 bets at the Roulette table, Under 51.5 is another bet I like.)
Saturday
Florida Atlantic @ Maryland (-14.5)
If you read my “Grading the G5 Hires” column, you know I am high on Florida Atlantic and Zach Kittley this year. It spits in the face of the “new coaches getting off to sluggish starts” narrative I’ve been pushing, but facing a rebuilding Maryland squad who is possibly playing for Mike Locksley’s job may be a good place to make a statement to the rest of the American. At the very least, a backdoor cover to get within 14 seems very logical.
Ball St. @ Purdue (-17.5)
This might be a bet against Purdue more than a bet for Ball St. The Cardinals are….wait for it… bringing in a new coach in Mike Uremovich. He has Indiana ties after coaching at Butler prior to coming to Muncie. Meanwhile Purdue hired Barry Odom to turn around a program that would just as soon forget the Ryan Walters Era. Ball State might have the better quarterback between the two in Kiael Kelly, and a 17 point win by the Boilers still gets you to the pay window. (This might be another place where the Under is a solid bet by the way.)
Temple (-2.5) @ UMass
Some are calling this the Sickos game of the week. Not me, but some people.
The Temple Owls hired KC Keeler to turn around their program after a less-than successful Stan Drayton regime. He has a proven resume, making his mark most recently at Sam Houston, but he is a Philly guy, so this was a natural fit. He takes his program to Amherst to take on a UMass squad making a return to the MAC. There will be a lot of…whatever shades of red those schools call what they wear, so betting the Over feels fun. But my instinct is to take the Owls and give less than a field goal.
New Mexico @ Michigan (-37)
Let’s not get crazy, Michigan is winning this game. But let’s look at the facts.
The Wolverines are starting superstar freshman Bryce Underwood, but he is still a freshman. If he hits the ground running right away, then he might be a Heisman candidate. If he is merely a very good quarterback, then the first drive or two will likely net some jitters. Meanwhile, New Mexico is (sigh) ushering in a new era under former Idaho coach Jason Eck. You may remember them last year as a team that went into Oregon Week One and put a scare into the Ducks. I see this being close early on with Michigan pulling away, but not by more than 37.
Rice @ Louisiana (-13)
Some makeovers are simple and clean. Barely even noticeable. Then there are some that are so drastic they would make RuPaul proud. What Rice is doing likely will fall into the latter category.
New coach Scott Abell is bring a unique option-style offense that scored over 35 points a game at Davidson. When it gets going it will be a problem. Meanwhile, Louisiana’s “new” comes in the form of former P4 quarterback Walker Howard. I happen to think he has a ton of upside, as his stints at two different SEC schools (LSU and Ole Miss) feel like more a result of a numbers game than a lack of talent on his part. Louisiana might be one of the favorites in the Sun Belt West. And hosting Rice Week One is the best time to catch them. Trust the Cajuns to win by at least two TDs.
Georgia Southern @ Fresno St. (-1.5)
Another team that we have a data point on already is Fresno St. One could certainly draw a conclusion after Saturday’s 31-7 thumping at the hands of Kansas that the Bulldogs have a long way to go under new HC Matt Entz, but there are a couple things to keep in mind.
1. Kansas has a chance to be really good.
2. Georgia Southern has a game next week at USC, something coach Clay Helton likely is thinking about.
This number might actually go the other way by the time the game starts, so if you are patient you could either get Fresno as a home (Bull)dog or it could go the other way but still stay under a field goal. But if you are wanting to place a bet on this game right away, the Over is probably the move.
So there are 10 games featuring Group of Five teams that should definitely be in your College Football Quad Box (or at the very least, streamed). Hopefully by betting on red, you will end the weekend in the black.
