We finally have multiple data points in each team. But what do they mean?
Well, we know that Notre Dame will always be wildly overrated even if they wait until the leaves change colors in South Bend to get a victory.
We also know that UCLA and Virginia Tech has no tolerance for embarrassing losses to G5 teams. But they happened nonetheless, to New Mexico and Old Dominion respectively. Completely unrelated: Oklahoma State hosts Tulsa Friday.
So here are 10 games involving G5 teams this weekend that are interesting based on things we know to this point. Use them to fill out your Quad Box. You won’t regret it. We will start with the aforementioned game in Stillwater.
Friday
Tulsa at Oklahoma State
(Line: Oklahoma State -11.5, O/U 53.5)
At 1-2 and winless against FBS teams, Tulsa is not very good. However, that’s exactly the type of team that would ruin a legacy if you lose to them.
Mike Gundy and Billy Napier probably share the hottest seats in college football now that Pry and Foster are no longer employed. Both feel like they have worn out their welcome, but Oklahoma State has felt like they have been going nowhere fast ever since NIL has become a thing. A bad showing here could be the final straw for Gundy, which is sad because “I’m a man. I’m 40” will live forever.
Saturday
Arkansas at Memphis
(Line: Arkansas -7.5, O/U 63.5)
I may have been a bit wrong about Memphis.
This will be by far the most difficult game the Tigers have played, but 3-0 is 3-0. And the defense looked very good last week against Troy. However, taking on Taylen Green and the high powered Razorback offense will prove to be a challenge unlike any they have faced. I do think Brendon Lewis and Memphis can move the ball against Arkansas as well, so expect a high scoring game.
North Texas at Army
(Line: North Texas -2.5, O/U 50.5)
One of these teams is undefeated with a high powered offense and a defense holding opponents to an average of 13 points per game. The other is Army.
The Mean Green are one of 4 teams in the American sitting at 3-0 at the quarter pole of the season. Long considered one of the more fun “half teams” in college football, it appears they have found a defense. But going to West Point to take on an Army team coming off a bye after beating Kansas State two weeks ago will be a huge challenge. (Stay tuned for the G5-Leg Parlay to see how I feel about this game from a betting perspective.)
Oregon State at Oregon
Washington at Washington State
(Line: Oregon -34.5, O/U 55.5, Washington -20.5, O/U 53.5)
I’m lumping these two together because of the common theme. A Big 10 team that shouldn’t be a Big 10 team is playing their very broken in-state rival.
The days where the Civil War and the Apple Cup meant something on a national level are long gone. It’s sad, but the reality of a college football landscape where Oregon and Washington are part of the Big 10 and their rivals are currently floating in purgatory until the new Pac-10 begins.
The Apple Cup is likely to be the closer of the two. Wazzu is 2-1, but last week got absolutely boatraced by North Texas last week 59-10. It’s possible that they were all-in on this game, and it is possible that Washington is looking ahead to next week when they host Ohio St.
Meanwhile one state south, the 0-3 Beavers are headed to Autzen to face the War Machine that is the Oregon Duck offense. Maybe one or both of these games are interesting because of the rivalry aspect, but see it to believe it. (Also, play these games at the end of the year.)
Tulane at Ole Miss
(Line: Ole Miss -11.5, O/U 61.5)
Ole Miss has issues with rushing quarterbacks. Say hello again to Jake Retzlaff.
Retzlaff has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of the Green Wave’s three games. (And six TDs in all.) But they are more than just a mobile quarterback, they have a nice stable of running backs as well. They might need to open it up a bit against an Ole Miss team that looks like it is humming with new quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
James Madison at Liberty
(Line: JMU -8.5, O/U 47.5)
This game looked a lot more interesting two weeks ago, before we learned that Liberty might be kinda terrible.
The Flames are shockingly 1-2, looking very flat in games against Jacksonville State and Bowling Green. But this is a very, very under-the-radar rivalry game. (So under-the-radar that they never play.)
Meanwhile, JMU is 1-1 coming off a bye week. We last saw them give Louisville fits on a Friday night before losing 28-14. The one last image though was their two-quarterback system essentially being the unifying source for the entire country. They need to figure out the Matthew Sluka/Alonza Barnett situation, and if they do, they should handle Liberty. If they don’t, this game could be all kinds of ugly.
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State
(Line: Mississippi State -21.5, O/U 49.5)
Northern Illinois is nothing if not feisty.
Obviously, everyone remembers their win last year in South Bend. Already this year they have covered a spread at Maryland. Now they go to Cowbell University to take on a much improved Mississippi State. It’s possible the Bulldogs are looking ahead to a measuring stick conference game against Tennessee next week, so expect the Huskies to hang around for at least a while.
BYU at East Carolina
(Line: BYU -6.5, O/U 50.5)
This has always been one of the weirder non-conference matchups to me.
Back in 2022, East Carolina went to Provo and upset the Cougars 27-24 on a Friday night. Now-Baltimore Raven Keaton Mitchell ran for 176 yards, while now-Ram Puka Nakua had a big game for BYU. I’m not sure this year’s iteration has the NFL talent on hand, but both teams have held their last two opponents to 3 points total. *Cough, bet the Under, cough*
Boise State at Air Force
(Line: Boise State -10.5, O/U 51.5)
We last saw Boise State being the first sacrificial lamb to the South Florida Bull stampede. They’ve been quiet since, only beating Eastern Washington 51-14 in the battle of teams with unnaturally colored fields. But they are beginning conference play against an Air Force squad already 0-1 in conference after a 49-30 loss to Utah State last week.
I think the Bye Week has allowed the Broncos time to figure things out that will bode them well for the rest of the year. And the Falcon defense has some issues that the Broncs can exploit. Expect another higher scoring game.
