Rivalry week chewed me up and spat me out – but we all know that’s because the football gods rigged the weekend against me (see the SC Clemson game recap). On to conference championship week where Clemson, SMU, Boise St. UNLV, Arizona St., Iowa St., and Alabama’s playoff fate hang in the balance. Everyone controls their destiny this weekend except for 12th ranked Alabama – if Clemson wins, does SMU stay in or does Alabama jump the Mustangs? Buckle up and enjoy the ride!
Brief Recap of Last Week
– South Carolina 17 Clemson 14
South Carolina didn’t win, Clemson just ran out of time. In all seriousness, LaNorris Sellers put the team on his head, shoulders, knees, and toes to pull out the victory in Clemson.
– Michigan 13 Ohio St. 10
If you didn’t know the final score of the game and I told you that Michigan only had 62 yards passing, you would’ve thought Ohio St. beat them by 100. Well, they didn’t…they lost by 3 in one of the most head scratching games in my lifetime.
– Notre Dame 49 USC 35
Notre Dame was the first team this year to have the lead in the entire 4thquarter against USC. They handled their business and put USC’s disappointing season to bed with a warm glass of milk.
– Alabama 28 Auburn 14
Auburn had the ball 4 times in the red zone and only came out with 14 points as Alabama bounced back from an embarrassing tail-whoopin’ in Norman Oklahoma. The Playoff committee then awarded the Tide with a potential playoff berth (pending this weekend’s outcomes).
– Texas 17 Texas A&M 7
The score differential does not tell the whole story of this game. In the first Lonestar Showdown in a decade, Texas made the Aggies their red-headed stepchild by coming to their house and dominating them defensively.
1. 20 UNLV at 10 Boise St. (Mountain West Championship)
Boise St. and UNLV are very similar teams – great rushing attacks, poor passing attack, great rush defense, poor pass defense. However, Boise St. has one thing that UNLV doesn’t – a Heisman candidate in Ashton Jeanty – but what if I told you that’s what costs the Broncos this game? I think the Rebels are able to take this rematch due to them having a multifaceted rushing attack with QB Hajj-Malik Williams and RB Jai’Den Thomas. This Friday Night matchup is going to be electric.
UNLV 30 Boise St. 29
UNLV +3.5
Over 57.5
2. 16 Iowa St. vs 15 Arizona St. (Big 12 Championship in Arlington, Texas)
If the news about Arizona St. wideout Jordyn Tyson being out is true, then this gives Iowa St. a huge edge. However, Arizona St. was going to have to win against Iowa St. on the ground with Cam Skattebo any way as Iowa St. has the nation’s 5th ranked pass defense led by DBs Darien Porter and Jontez Williams. This game is going to have fireworks, twists, turns, and I think the Cyclones end the Sun Devils hot streak.
Iowa St. 42 Arizona St. 40
Iowa St. +2.5
Over 49.5
3. 5 Georgia vs 2 Texas (SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia)
The last time these two teams faced off, the Dawgs went into Austin and made the Longhorns look like calves, winning 30-15. I think this game may be the hardest game to predict, despite the previous matchup, because Georgia has yet to play a full game this year – see Clemson, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas. When Georgia brings their A-game though, they are arguably the best team in the country. The Longhorns haven’t changed their winning recipe much this year, relying heavily on their defense to stymie opposing offenses enough to give their offense opportunities to score. If Carson Beck has another 3-turnover game like he did in the last matchup, Texas will avenge their loss.
Texas 20 Georgia 13
Texas -2.5
Under 49.5
4. 3 Penn St. vs 1 Oregon (Big 10 Championship in Indianapolis, Indiana)
Penn St. has handled business this year playing great defense, running the football, and letting Drew Allar do enough to not give the game away. Oregon, on the other hand, has won in a plethora of ways, relying on the defense against Wisconsin, special teams against Boise St., on the ground with Jordan James against Michigan St., and through the air against Ohio St. I think this game might be the worst conference championship, in terms of point differential, this weekend and the Ducks prove why they’re the number one team in the country.
Oregon 28 Penn St. 13
Oregon -3.5
Under 50.5
5. 17 Clemson vs 8 SMU (ACC Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina)
Clemson has struggled against teams that are good against the run (Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville) and unfortunately for the Tigers, SMU is ranked 4th in the country in rush defense, allowing only 2.8 yards per carry. However, the Mustangs have an Achilles Heel in their pass defense, as they’ve allowed TCU, Louisville, Duke, and Pitt, to throw for over 250 yards against them (TCU 415, Louisville 329, Duke 295, Pitt 350). I suspect Clemson will learn from their mistake against South Carolina and keep freshman linebacker Sammy Brown on the field by staying in 3 linebacker sets, to slow down SMU’s rushing attack and limit Kevin Jennings damage on the ground. The Tiger’s defensive backs and wide receivers better come ready to work as I think this game is going to be won on the perimeter, and Clemson pulls of a thrilling victory to make their way into the playoff.
Clemson 38 SMU 35
Clemson +2.5
Over 55.5
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