We step into week 4 in our biggest hot streak for the spread…don’t worry about last week’s outright winners and over/under plays – those didn’t lose, they just ran out of time. Water will find its level, and we will be above 500 on all metrics here soon, just trust the process. Speaking of the process, if you’re anything like me and like the idea of gambling, but don’t want to spend any of your hard-earned money on it, I’ve got just the app for you. Join the Walk-On Redshirts on BattleBets where you get all the fun of betting, but the only thing you lose is bragging rights – no money wagered! Join our league here https://join.battlebets.app/join?pool_id=194&token=PjDfo0yUQo-8zw and remember it’s free to join and even better, free to play!
Brief Recap of Last Week
– We were lucky enough to get to watch a potential Big 12 championship game in September as Houston and Texas Tech went toe-to-toe last Friday night. No, the Cougars didn’t win, but they showed the college football world that they aren’t a team that’s to be reckoned with.
– You like offense? Louisville vs SMU featured that and some as they combined for 72 points. Lousiville put themselves in the driver’s seat to make it to the ACC Championship, but don’t get carried away, it’s only September and there’s a lot of ball left.
– If you didn’t believe that Florida was legit, you better start. As Tom Petty coined in a now famous Gator 4th quarter chant, this team won’t back down and Auburn experienced this first hand at home.
– I thought Louisville exposed Ole Miss in week 1 and that LSU was a national title contender. However, we learned that Louisville may just be a legit playoff contender and hate is a strong emotion…especially when the opposing coach continues to fan those flames throughout the week.
– West Virginia’s rushing attack is deeper than a Morgantown mine and it was on full display in Charlotte. Virginia didn’t roll over, but they got exposed on the defensive side of the ball in ways that will keep them from returning to Charlotte for the ACC title game come December.
1. 1 Texas at 14 Tennessee
Faizon Brandon is making his first SEC start as the Texas Longhorns come to Knoxville for this midday matchup. Tennessee should be getting stud (former walk-on) Desean Bishop back for this matchup, while Texas is coming off a lackluster performance against UTSA shortly after winning a top 5 matchup against Ohio St. The stats don’t really matter in this game as both team’s haven’t built enough of a Power 4 resume – Texas has faced Ohio St. and Tennessee has faced Georgia Tech – but what we can say is that Texas’s P4 performance is extensively more impressive than Tennessee’s bashing of the Rambling Wreck of Georgia Tech. Two things will come from this game; Tennessee will feel confident that they have their future QB and Texas will win by double digits.
Texas 27 Tennessee 14
Texas -7
Under 56.5
2. 4 Ole Miss at 21 Florida
Ole Miss won revenge over Lane Kiffin in front of a ruckus Oxford crowd, while Florida took a trip to the Plains and came out victorious over the Tigers of Auburn. Florida’s offense can compete against anyone, but it’s their defensive performance that left a lot to be desired – allowing 39 points from this Auburn offense does not give me confidence. Ole Miss, however, gives me confidence as long as they keep trotting Trinidad Chambliss out as QB. Yes, this game is in the Swamp, but I think the Rebels gash the Gators.
Ole Miss 40 Florida 31
Ole Miss +1.5
Over 59.5
3. 17 Iowa at 18 Michigan
Just above this, I predicted a 71-point shootout in the SEC. If you think I’ll be predicting the same in this matchup, you haven’t watched either of these teams play with their Big 10 bully-ball style. Hank Brown is leading an undefeated Iowa team into the Big House to faceoff against a clunky offense but dominate defense in Michigan. Whoever wins the turnover battle in this one, wins that game – which bodes well for the Hawkeyes.
Iowa 17 Michigan 13
Iowa +4.5
Under 38.5
4. 21 Oregon at 12 USC
This game puts it corkscrew in my cranium as you have what people thought was a national championship roster in Oregon facing off against a team who still can’t spell defense but can score on anyone. Oregon, who lost to Oklahoma St. (who was coming off of a loss to Tulsa) and needed a 4thquarter comeback against Boise St., got some frustration out by beating Portland St. 84-0, but can they play a complete game against a conference foe? USC allowed Rutgers to drop 28 on their head, so this should be the game that Oregon’s offense comes alive…right?
Oregon 35 USC 31
USC +5.5
Over 61.5
5. Oklahoma St. at West Virginia
This game is the roller coaster game of the week as Oklahoma St. has lost to Tulsa and also won a top 5 game, while West Virginia has struggled against Coastal, but turned around and beat a ranked Virginia squad. The difference in this game is going to come down to defense – West Virginia has only thrown the ball 38 times this year, so we know that Rich Rod is going to have the rushing attack going. However, Oklahoma St. ranks 35th in the country in rush defense, allowing only 100 yards per game. Oklahoma St., on the flip side, is more balanced on offense with QB Drew Mestemaker and RB Caleb Hawkins equally leading this offense. BUT they are turnover prone, especially Mestemaker who as already thrown 4 picks. In this game, balance and rush defense wins out.
Oklahoma St. 33 West Virginia 31
Oklahoma St. +1.5
Over 61.5
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