We’re in the thick of the offseason, so naturally my mind is wondering about some of the intricacies of college football. One idea that was sparked after seeing a post about how great Miami’s recruiting classes have been in the past 5 years – why brag on how good your recruiting classes are if they on field production is sub-par? Let’s take a step further, what is the correlation between recruiting rankings in the past decade and winning percentage? After collecting the data, I made a simple correlation – average recruiting class rank (1-130) subtracted by average winning percentage rank (1-130).
Not to get too nerdy (I’m not able to due to lack of brain cells), but to explain the data, I’ll give a quick summary. If the difference is close to (0) the team has been performing as predicted based on their talent (recruiting class rank) – top 10 recruiting class is expected to have a top 10 winning percentage. If the difference is positive, then the team is outperforming their talent and if the difference is negative, then the team is under performing. Now, the fun part, the data set. NOTE: I removed Group of 5 teams from the data set because they made up almost the entire top 25 – they all have low recruiting classes, but they play against each other, so the data becomes skewed.
ALSO, before you get all mad because Alabama isn’t number 1, go back and read the paragraph above and the key below, then if you’re still mad, ask a friend for help.
What do you think? Is everyone about where you thought they’d be? I’ll tell you firsthand that I had a few teams shock me when looking at their placement – here are three of those teams.
1. South Carolina – Average Recruiting Class Rank = 26.30 / Average Winning Percentage = 43.78 / Overall Difference ranking = 64th out of 67. South Carolina has dropped off mightily since the Steve Spurrier era, but this ranking is still mind boggling. The Will Muschamp era was a failure and now we’re in the midst of Shane Beamer’s regime. The recruiting classes and winning percentages between the two eras are almost identical. Does the next decade look different if they stick with Beamer, or does a major change need to come to Columbia?
2. Texas – Average Recruiting Class Rank = 9.70 / Average Winning Percentage = 59.05 / Overall Difference ranking = 43rd out of 67. I know Texas football has not been up to snuff this past decade, but the craziest stat is the average recruiting class ranking! A top 10 recruiting class over the last decade has only produced winning a little over half of their games a year!? Excuse my French, but what on God’s green earth has been going on in Austin? Steve Sarkisian seems to have a good thing going there now, but I’m curious to see if he can sustain it – success is hard, sustained success is very hard.
3. BYU – Average Recruiting Class Rank = 68.00 / Average Winning Percentage = 61.01 / Overall Difference ranking = 1st out of 67. When you first look at the Cougar’s numbers, you aren’t blown away, but when you look at their Overall ranking, you need to take a seat in a Mormon pew to keep from suffering a traumatic brain injury. Now, my first thought was that BYU didn’t play a Power 5 schedule as an Independent, and I was right (nice humble pat on the back for me). BYU, over the past decade, had Power 5 teams make up only 39% of their schedule, as opposed to the average Power 5 team that has about 80% of their schedule made up of Power 5 teams. So are you really the number 1 team?
3 Takeaways
1. It pays to be an Independent…if you can afford it: Notre Dame and BYU both are considered “over-achievers” by the data. BYU is now officially a Power 4 school (so long PAC12 – I’ll miss you at midnight in the fall) but was able to dodge a G5 identifier due to their independent status before joining the Big12.
2. SEC SEC SEC: not a single SEC school is considered “over-achieving,” which you could very easily argue is due to the strength of schedule they play. However, the most damning stat is that they also boast 3 out of the bottom 4 teams…ouch (South Carolina (I guess that’s why they have the Cockaboose), Vanderbilt, and Arkansas).
3. Recruiting matters and so does coaching!: the best teams are in the top 10 in recruiting besides Texas…way to go Steers. Which brings me to the other half, you can bring the Ferraris in but you need someone to drive.
I appreciate you taking time out of your highly important and busy schedules to read an article from a poorly educated, self-proclaimed football analyst. I hope you enjoyed it and tell me what you thought on social media – @walkonmoose (twitter/X). Thank you again degenerates!
