Week 6 was an improvement over the prior with two total non-sweat winners including best bet Duke (Clemson destroying UNC the other). But I keep taking hits on picks involving stupid G5 plays (Navy, ULM, Boise-ND over). All told, 2-3 (-0.35 units) We’re fully into the conference season, so I’m going to swear off G5 games as long as I remain positive on the week. Plenty of P4-only action to choose from, including top ten teams on the road. The ACC has been my most successful conference to predict this year, so I might have to ride them on the way back into plus money. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude.
Bet 1: Stanford at SMU over 55.5 (-105) (11:00am CT Sat 10/11, CW; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)
Neither program should be in the ACC, but since they are, I’m expecting a lot of passing success in a game where both teams are giving up over 300ypg through the air. The main fear would be SMU stiffening up the way they did a week ago against Syracuse. But a dominant three quarters against a backup isn’t enough to think Stanford can’t score with their improving starter Gulbranson. The Cardinal’s rushing attack is the antithesis of what it was during the Harbaugh-Shaw era so there isn’t a reason to try and avoid passing. Kevin Jennings plays another good game, it reaches the 60’s.
Bet 2: Missouri +2.5 (+110) vs Alabama (11:00am CT Sat 10/11, ABC)
The heavy juice on the Bama side after coming all the way down from 5.5 is a little scary, but it’s erased the temptation to take the moneyline at just +130, so I’ll take the home dog and points. It’s a clear step up in class for Mizzou, which is really the only thing I see in Bama’s favor. In terms of details, this is the second road game and third overall for Bama in a 4-game gauntlet against ranked teams. A fired up Tigers looking for their first win over the Tide since joining the conference should be everything they can handle. Bama adjusted and slowed down Vandy after a rough start, but on the road with momentum that would more resemble the FSU loss, I don’t see them righting themselves. SEC parity is real.
Bet 3: Maryland +6.5 (-105) vs Nebraska (2:30pm CT Sat 10/11, BTN)
I love this spot for the Terps! Definite moneyline and best bet urges, but I’ll leave those to more trusted hands than Locks for now. It’s a pretty good Nebraska defense against a young QB, but other than that, not much concern at all. Nebraska’s offense hoarded numbers against weak non-con, but now they’re going on the road for the first time this late in the season, and aren’t supposed to miss a beat against a team that had Washington dead to rights last week? Both these programs are too afraid of success recently to think either can win easily.
Bet 4: Clemson 13.5 (-1.25) at Boston College (6:30pm CT Sat 10/11, ACCN)
Total sucker stuff laying this again with a highly flawed Dabo squad, but BC is the second most UNC-like program, at least in the ACC, right now. After blowing the MSU game, losses at Stanford, then home vs Cal and again at home by 40+ to Pitt. BC might be good for some fight early, unlike UNC, but Clemson has returned to familiar territory taking on overmatched ACC opposition weekly. Some good vibes should also be in store after not running it up on UNC (very much unlike DeBoer’s Vandy cover!).
Best Bet (2 units): Utah -9.5 vs Arizona St (9:30pm CT Sat 10/11, ESPN)
ASU turns to Jeff Sims of Georgia Tech and Nebraska infamy to replace Sam Leavitt. At Utah ain’t the place to do it. The Sun Devils have pride and will come in ready for a fight, but turning that into points will be different story. The Utes only loss is to sudden-goliath Texas Tech, and while TTU had to use their backup, that was a guy who’d been getting work, Sims has yet to throw a pass this year. Utah at home off a bye is too well positioned to pass on.
Good luck! Week 5: 2-3 (-0.35 units); Season: 12-18 (-4.8 units)
