With the National Championship rapidly approaching, the college football season is nearing its end. Monday night, we will crown a new National Champion and the first of the 12-team playoff era. Notre Dame and Ohio State have both fought through adversity to reach this stage of the playoffs.
Notre Dame suffered a monumental loss early in the year to Northern Illinois but bounced back to go on a tear the rest of the season, leaving no doubt that they deserved to be in the playoffs. The Irish were doubted when they entered the playoffs. Could they defeat the in-state Cinderella? Beat a Georgia team that was viewed as more talented? Knock off Penn State, a team that plays a very similar style of football? They silenced the critics.
Ohio State returned nearly every starter on both sides of the ball and appeared destined for a national title until the injury bug hit their only weak spot, the offensive line. A road loss to Oregon and a home upset to Michigan forced everyone to question if this team was good enough. A team meeting following their loss to Michigan set the tone, and Ohio State dominated Tennessee and Oregon before outlasting Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
Ohio State and Notre Dame have incredibly different personnel and play a different style of football. While Ohio State may be an 8.5-point favorite, Notre Dame absolutely has a chance to win this game. Neither team needs to play flawlessly, but there are a few keys to victory for each team.
Notre Dame’s 3 Keys to Victory
1. Ugly the game up – The cliché way to predict a team’s victory is by saying they are ahead in the turnover battle or have fewer penalties. However, Notre Dame needs to put Ohio State’s offense in uncomfortable situations. We saw the Buckeyes struggle in the first half against Texas when they were put in second- and third-and-long situations. The key is to put pressure on Will Howard and force him to make mistakes. He tends to throw jump balls, and Notre Dame has the defenders capable of forcing a turnover. Even applying enough pressure to force an incompletion will help in the long run. If the Ohio State receivers start running free, this game could get ugly.
2. Control the clock – One reason Michigan was able to beat Ohio State was their ability to control the clock late in the game. Ohio State ran just seven plays in the fourth quarter, while Michigan ran 23. Jeremiyah Love is not going to be 100% healthy, no matter what anyone says. He is playing his 16th game and was seen wearing a knee brace before the Penn State game. Both Jadarian Price and Love will need to generate yards and convert first downs. Notre Dame’s offensive line cannot allow Ohio State to consistently put the Fighting Irish in third-and-long situations. Notre Dame was 11 of 17 on third down against Penn State. Keeping third downs at a manageable distance will allow Riley Leonard to scramble for first downs and also keep the rushing attack in play.
3. Get Creative – Marcus Freeman has demonstrated his ability to think creatively in the playoffs. He ran the entire team off the field to confuse Georgia late in the game, which led to an offsides penalty that helped seal the victory. Notre Dame also ran a reverse on the kick return in their win over Indiana. Both of these calculated risks paid off and helped the Fighting Irish secure the win. Tennessee, Texas, and Oregon all struggled to push the ball down the field, and all three have better receivers than Notre Dame (Tennessee might be a coin flip). How can Notre Dame steal yards, possessions, or points throughout the game? Could we see Freeman attempt an onside kick? Could there be a fake punt or field goal? The more time the ball is out of Ohio State’s offense’s hands, the better chance Notre Dame has to win the game.
Ohio State’s 3 Keys to Victory
1. Eliminate the avoidable mistakes – Ohio State committed two dead-ball personal foul penalties against Texas. TreVeyon Henderson pushed a Texas defender’s facemask after a run when Ohio State was inside the Texas 40-yard line. The penalty pushed Ohio State back to their side of the field, forcing them to punt. Late in the third quarter, Howard hit Carnell Tate for 15 yards, but the play was negated after Austin Siereveld hit a Texas defender late. Ohio State’s offense thrives when they can keep the defense on its heels and keep them guessing. However, when the offense faces 2nd and 20, the defense is no longer worried about the run. Both of these penalties were avoidable and hurt Ohio State’s chances to score. Stupid penalties will cost the Buckeyes.
2. Spy Riley Leonard – Ohio State did a great job containing Dillon Gabriel in the Rose Bowl. Cody Simon spied Gabriel and kept him from getting loose. Ohio State will need a similar game plan against Riley Leonard, as he can beat teams with his legs. Leonard was held to just 35 yards rushing against Penn State, but he did have a rushing touchdown. He has the ability to break the game open and convert on third down with his legs, which can be demoralizing to a defense expecting to get off the field. In the games Ohio State struggled in during the regular season (Nebraska, Penn State, Oregon, Michigan), all but Michigan had quarterbacks who ran for at least 30 yards. Davis Warren only ran the ball once but gained 11 yards. If Leonard improvises and continues to move the chains, Ohio State could be in trouble.
3. Get started quick – Everyone knows Notre Dame does not have an explosive offense compared to Ohio State. The Buckeyes put pressure on Tennessee and Oregon early by scoring quickly. Notre Dame needs this game to be a marathon and go the distance. If the Fighting Irish fall behind by two scores in the first quarter, how will they adjust their game plan, knowing they need to keep up with a fast pace? Ohio State appeared to be on their way to doing that to Texas before a costly penalty on their second drive forced a punt. Notre Dame’s scoring drives against Penn State averaged nine plays per drive. The Irish scored quickly against Georgia due to a kick return touchdown and a fumble recovery. If you put pressure on Notre Dame to increase their tempo and take chances, you can likely force mistakes by Leonard, putting the game out of reach.
