I got too cute with the best bet heater last week, and now I’m really desperate for a sweep ahead of Conference Championship Game weekend. While the Maryland-Michigan under was defensible based on the current teams and their recent play, I usually afford weight to series history and trends, and Michigan has been way too consistent scoring against Maryland of late to make that a best bet. Split on the rest, SMU and Pitt both no sweats, Arkansas and Florida ML the same, but the bad kind. 2-3 (-2.2) I’m publishing late on Rivalry Week, so self-inflected slim pickings. Ohio State is due in The Game, but the vibes are so in Michigan’s favor there could still be five higher percentage plays to find. The SEC spreads continue to stink with money coming in on Auburn when DeBoer has the better team and everything to play for. Find a way to 5-0! 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!

Bet 1: Pitt +215 moneyline vs Miami (11:00am CT Sat 11/29, ABC; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)

ACC early window to start again. Miami seems like a zombie CFP team just waiting to be formally removed. They’re in the graphic, but they’re not really in because they aren’t making their CCG. They’re getting screwed by the ND eye test, but Pitt looks ready to put that part to sleep. This is a totally signature Cristobal flop spot. Narduzzi’s squad had his back on the road at Georgia Tech last week and is going to be at full focus at home. It would be out of character for Miami to come through in this spot, I’ll pay to see it.

Bet 2: Houston +2.5 (+100) at Baylor (11:00am CT Sat 11/29, TNT)

Houston has slipped up, but it’s not that grave. Baylor has bowl eligibility on the line, but it’s going to take more than motivation to fix their defense. It’s been nearly two months since Baylor’s play was at a level that would inspire confidence here. Willie Fritz can’t drop an in-state game like this with the superior team if he’s serious about building the Cougars up. I’m honestly about as into the under 57.5 as this side. This game screams a penalty and turnover aided Houston win.

Bet 3: BYU -17.5 vs UCF (Noon CT Sat 11/29, ESPN2)

This seems so obvious it might be a trap, but BYU has defied those expectations too consistently for me to care. The kickoff is more in line with UCF’s body clocks, I guess? BYU has one eye on their Texas Tech rematch for a CFP spot? Really? I suppose it’s true that UCF is the lull game between the final road test at Cincinnati they just passed, and the dragon they need to slay in Texas Tech. But UCF isn’t in a position to exploit that for more than a drive or two. Nothing about BYU’s season suggests they’re not going to be bringing their best here.

Bet 4: Northwestern +7.5 (-125) at Illinois (6:30pm CT Sat 11/29, Fox)

The only team to beat the Cats by more than a TD the last 10 weeks is USC in the Coliseum. The Illini got them H2H, but this isn’t close to as difficult a spot for the surprisingly decent visitors. Illinois’s schedule was all or nothing in terms of difficulty, until last week. They play an invigorated, but still extremely flawed Wisconsin team in Madison, and the environment is too much for them. NU has comeback from double-digits week after week. Too much competency out of Northwestern to not think they get this to the fourth quarter like so many of their games.

Best Bet (2 units): Washington St -13.5 (-105) vs Oregon St (5:30pm CT Sat 11/29, CW)

Wazzu has played a unicorn schedule in this second nomadic year before they headline the reborn “Pac-12” next year, which is attracting interesting names, like Jim Mora this week. Their random assortment of road games nearly all ended up at a team rising up for their best CFP push in years. North Texas, Ole Miss, UVA. James Madison too! Are you kidding? In between all those was a fated trip to Corvalis which resulted in an embarrassing 10-7 Beaver win 4 weeks ago. Wazzu didn’t even allow 200 total yards. Revenge is due in Pullman. Oregon St got to announce their new coach and spirits might get a small lift, but this screams bloodbath spot as they can’t wait to return to the “Pac-12” banner.

Good luck! Week 12: 2-3 (-2.2 units); Season: 29-36 (-4.3 units)