One week closer to the College Football Playoffs, and by my count, only four teams have been eliminated from the bubble watch. I still have 27 teams in play, though their chances are getting smaller and smaller. Similar to last week, we’ll have three categories: Should Be In, Work To Do, and Needs Help.
Needs Help means exactly that: the team needs help. Even if they win out, they face a difficult road to make the playoffs.
Should Be In means the team is sitting pretty, and barring a crazy upset, they will make the playoff.
Work to Do means the team might have a difficult game or two ahead. If they falter, they’ll likely miss the playoffs.
ACC
Should be In:
• None
Work to Do
• Miami Hurricanes – Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech means they likely have to win out. How will the committee view a loss to Georgia Tech, and how would they view a second loss in the ACC Championship game? If the Hurricanes finish 11-2 with a loss in the championship game, they’ll still have a good chance of getting in, but they’ll lack any key victories. Right now, Miami is hanging its hat on a road win over Louisville. Will that be enough?
Remaining Games: vs Wake Forest, @Syracuse
• SMU Mustangs – SMU was off this past weekend, so nothing changed with their chances. Manageable games against Boston College, Virginia, and Cal still remain. Provided the Mustangs win out, we’ll see how they fare. The lone loss to BYU continues to look better, as the Cougars remain undefeated.
Remaining Games: vs Boston College, @Virginia, vs Cal
Needs Help:
• Clemson Tigers – The ACC is going to struggle to get two teams in, let alone three. Clemson still has a chance, but they need a lot of help. Another loss for Miami would go a long way, which means their hopes might come down to Syracuse—because Wake Forest is not beating Miami. Clemson is not going to get an at-large bid, so they need to find a way into the conference championship game.
Remaining Games: @Pitt, vs The Citadel, vs South Carolina
Now Eliminated: Pitt Panthers
Big Ten
Should be In:
• Oregon Ducks – Oregon is sitting at 10-0 with two games remaining. They also have wins over Boise State and Ohio State to bolster their resume. It’s hard to imagine Oregon missing the playoffs, even if they lose to Wisconsin or Washington and then lose in the Big Ten Championship—though that would be a disastrous situation. Right now, Oregon is sitting pretty.
Remaining Games: @Wisconsin, vs Washington
• Indiana Hoosiers – Indiana passed their first helmet test game. Michigan took them down to the wire, but now the Hoosiers get a week off before heading to Columbus. Even a loss to Ohio State should keep them in the top 12. Indiana has handled their business, and a one-loss Big Ten team should be in the playoffs. Who knows, maybe they’ll beat the Buckeyes. Also, Indiana isn’t losing to Purdue.
Remaining Games: @Ohio State, vs Purdue
• Ohio State Buckeyes – Provided Ohio State handles business against Northwestern and Michigan, the result of the Indiana game should not matter much. The Buckeyes will have three top-ten teams on their schedule, with Oregon coming as a one-point road loss. A win would remove any doubt, but even a 10-2 record with their schedule should be enough.
Remaining Games: @Northwestern, vs Indiana, vs Michigan
Work to Do
• Penn State Nittany Lions – Penn State is close to punching their ticket to the College Football Playoffs. The only thing the Nittany Lions cannot afford is a loss to Minnesota. They should handle Purdue and Maryland easily, but a road game at Minnesota could be tricky. The Golden Gophers are playing their best football as we head towards the end of the season. Penn State lacks a key victory, as they don’t have a win over a current top-25 team. Win out, and they’re in. Simple as that.
Remaining Games: @Purdue, @Minnesota, vs Maryland
Needs Help:
• None
Now Eliminated: None
Big 12
Should be In:
• BYU Cougars – I’m probably going to regret putting BYU in this category, especially after they continue to win in dramatic fashion every week. A last-second win over Utah keeps the Cougars undefeated with just three games remaining. Kansas and Arizona State will not be cakewalks. Kansas just dominated Iowa State and has played much better than their record suggests. Unless BYU loses two games between now and the Big 12 Championship, they should be in. The win over SMU looks better and better each week.
Remaining Games: vs Kansas, @Arizona State, vs Houston
Work to Do
• Colorado Buffaloes – Don’t look now, but Colorado is in position to make the Big 12 Championship game. They currently hold second place all to themselves, but they have a few more tests ahead. Utah will come to town, followed by a trip to Kansas, and then a home game against Oklahoma State to finish the season. Colorado needed a comeback to beat Texas Tech but now sits at 7-2. The Buffaloes will have to win the Big 12 Championship to secure a spot in the playoffs—three losses will keep them out.
Remaining Games: vs Utah, @Kansas, vs Oklahoma State
Needs Help:
• Iowa State Cyclones – Iowa State’s loss to Kansas has put them in a position where they’ll need to root for chaos down the stretch. Even if Colorado loses one of their next three games, the Cyclones will still find themselves in a situation where it comes down to tiebreakers if more than two teams are tied. You’d think the head-to-head win would be enough, but it might not be. They’ll need West Virginia to lose at least one game, as the Mountaineers would likely have a better conference opponent win percentage. Iowa State is down, but not out.
Remaining Games: vs Cincinnati, @Utah, vs Kansas State
• Kansas State Wildcats – Kansas State finds itself in nearly the exact same situation as Iowa State, which is ironic given that the two will play in the final week of the season. The winner could be headed to the Big 12 Championship game. Kansas State needs to handle business and hope for upsets ahead of them.
Remaining Games: vs Arizona State, vs Cincinnati, @Iowa State
• Arizona State Sun Devils – Not only does Arizona State need to win out, but they also need Kansas State to beat Iowa State and Colorado to lose at least one game. Arizona State has Kansas State and BYU on their schedule. It’s unlikely for the Sun Devils to make the Big 12 Championship, but their odds are not zero—they’re just no higher than 5%.
Remaining Games: @Kansas State, vs BYU, @Arizona
• West Virginia Mountaineers – Somehow, 5-4 West Virginia has not been eliminated yet. Two of their losses came outside the conference to Pitt and Penn State. They also lost to both Iowa State and Kansas State, but there is still a path for them to make the Big 12 Championship game. First and foremost, they need to win out. With remaining games against Baylor, UCF, and Texas Tech, it’s still possible. If they continue to win, we’ll dissect their odds further.
Remaining Games: vs Baylor, vs UCF, @Texas Tech
Now Eliminated: Texas Tech, Cincinnati
SEC
Should be In:
• Texas Longhorns – When the rankings come out on Tuesday, Texas should be in the top five once again. The Longhorns need to handle business against a tough Arkansas team next weekend, but if they beat the Razorbacks and then Kentucky a week later, the season will come down to a matchup against Texas A&M. If the Aggies beat Texas, I still think the Longhorns could make the playoffs. The SEC will have a lot of two-loss teams; it just depends on where everyone is ranked. I believe Texas is in the best spot right now.
Remaining Games: @Arkansas, vs Kentucky, @Texas A&M
Work to Do
• Tennessee Volunteers – If Tennessee didn’t have Georgia next week, I would consider them a lock. Even though the Bulldogs haven’t looked great the past few weeks, their season will be on the line next weekend. A loss, and the Bulldogs are out. Remaining games against UTEP and Vanderbilt should be wins. A 10-2 Tennessee team would be sitting in a really good spot, provided they stay competitive against Georgia.
Remaining Games: @Georgia, vs UTEP, @Vanderbilt
• Georgia Bulldogs – Speaking of the Bulldogs, their season is on the line against Tennessee. A 9-3 record will not be enough to make the playoffs at this pace, even if the three losses are to top-15 teams. A win, however, keeps them alive in the SEC and likely locks up their spot in the College Football Playoff. A loss, and they will be outside the top 12.
Remaining Games: vs Tennessee, vs UMass, vs Georgia Tech
• Ole Miss Rebels – Where the committee ranks Ole Miss will be key on Tuesday night. The Rebels have two games remaining against weaker opponents, and games against Florida and Mississippi State won’t do much to bolster their resume. If Ole Miss is ranked around 10, they’ll be in a great spot. If they’re 12 or lower, they’ll need some help to ensure they make the playoffs. The win over Georgia was huge, and Lane Kiffin has his team playing well in recent weeks. Let’s see if they can finish strong.
Remaining Games: @Florida, vs Mississippi State
• Alabama Crimson Tide – Alabama dominated LSU, which helped them avoid elimination. Similar to Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide don’t have any remaining games that will boost their resume. Games against Mercer, Oklahoma, and Auburn won’t help Alabama move up in the rankings. They were ranked 11th, and a strong win over LSU should push them into the top 10, likely giving them some breathing room.
Remaining Games: vs Mercer, @Oklahoma, vs Auburn
• Texas A&M Aggies – Texas A&M was off this past weekend following their loss to South Carolina. The Aggies’ schedule comes down to the final week when they face Texas. Beat the Longhorns, and they’re in. Lose to the Longhorns, and they’re out. It’s as simple as that. They should handle New Mexico State, and Auburn shouldn’t provide much of a challenge. The key is avoiding a third loss on the resume.
Remaining Games: vs New Mexico State, @Auburn, vs Texas
Needs Help:
• Missouri Tigers – The only reason Missouri is listed here is because they have two conference losses, which technically keeps them in play for the SEC Championship game. They have remaining games against South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. I think Missouri loses to South Carolina, but if they win, their chances improve significantly.
Remaining Games: @South Carolina, @Mississippi State, vs Arkansas
Now Eliminated: LSU
Group of Five/Independents
Should be In:
• None
Work to Do
• Notre Dame Fighting Irish – I considered placing Notre Dame in the “Should Be In” category, but their remaining games against Army and USC could pose some potential challenges. Notre Dame is in a great spot if they continue to win out. Their wins over Texas A&M, Louisville, and Navy look strong and should be enough to keep them in the top 10 if they finish the season undefeated.
Remaining Games: vs Virginia, vs Army, @USC
• Boise State Broncos – Boise State continues to win, even if their victories haven’t been the prettiest. Beating a struggling Nevada team by just seven points won’t help them move up the rankings much, but they remain significantly higher than any other Group of Five team. The loss to Oregon by just three points might be enough to bolster their position and help them avoid being the 12th seed in the playoffs if they win out.
Remaining Games: @San Jose State, @Wyoming, vs Oregon State
Needs Help:
• Army Black Knights – Army finally beat a team with a winning record, and now their season comes down to a matchup with Notre Dame. The Black Knights need to win out to have a chance, and even an undefeated record might not be enough to pass Boise State. Army is probably wishing their game against Navy counted right about now, as Navy would be the second-best team on their schedule.
Remaining Games: vs Notre Dame, vs UTSA, vs Navy (Not Counted Towards Standings)
• Tulane Green Wave – Tulane was ranked in the AP poll this week, but it’s unlikely the College Football Playoff committee will rank them, especially since Army was at 25 last week. Tulane could make a push for a spot, but they need Boise State to lose and must win the AAC Championship. The Green Wave gave Oklahoma and Kansas State a fight, but those two teams are significantly weaker than the opponents they would face in the playoffs.
Remaining Games: @Navy, vs Memphis
• UNLV Rebels – UNLV remains in the hunt, but they’ll need a Colorado State loss to make the Mountain West Championship game. If UNLV reaches the conference championship, they would likely have a chance to avenge their loss to Boise State. With a little help, they could become the top-ranked Group of Five team. It’s not impossible, just highly improbable.
Remaining Games: vs San Diego State, @San Jose State, vs Nevada
• Washington State Cougars – Washington State will continue to be one of the most interesting cases, especially if they win out. The Cougars have just one loss on the season, and it came against Boise State. Washington State will need to make the playoffs as an at-large team, and sitting at No. 21 right now gives them a chance. If you’re a Cougars fan, you’d like to see your team around No. 18 on Tuesday, which would give you hope heading into the final three games of the season. New Mexico, Oregon State, and Wyoming don’t provide significant challenges, so they will need a lot of help to stay in the hunt.
Remaining Games: @New Mexico, @Oregon State, vs Wyoming
• Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – If, by some chance, one of the above teams doesn’t get the Group of Five bid, Louisiana has a good chance to finish the season 12-1. The Ragin’ Cajuns play the three weakest teams in their division to close out the year, with a likely matchup against Marshall or Georgia Southern remaining. Louisiana has the 115th hardest schedule, so their resume will be difficult to take seriously. However, if they finish 12-1 and no one else is close, they could still earn the bid.
Remaining Games: vs South Alabama, vs Troy, @UL Monroe
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