Wednesday, December 27th
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com: Virginia Tech (6-6) vs. Tulane (11-2)
2:00 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
Brent Prys second season as Hokies head coach looked to be a struggle in the opening month after starting 1-3 with losses to Purdue, Rutgers, and Marshall but they kicked things into gear when Kyron Drones got comfortable in the starting quarterback role and they entered ACC play, finishing 5-3 in conference play. Drones, a transfer from Baylor last offseason, finished with 19 total touchdown and just 3 interceptions. Defensive lineman Antwuan Powell-Ryland finished second in sacks (9.5) in the ACC and as a whole the Hokies finished second in sacks as a team (38) in the conference, only behind Florida State.
The Willie Fritz era at Tulane has come to a close as he took the Houston job after the Wave lost the AAC Championship. This Tulane team will look incredibly different from the one that defeated USC in the Cotton Bowl last season, as the opt outs and transfers have piled up in recent weeks. Star quarterback Michael Pratt has opted to begin preparation for the Senior Bowl, and nine other starters will follow via the portal including several wide receivers, leaving very little depth in the passing game. Breakout running back Mekhi Hughes (1,290 yards) will play, and will likely be the focal point of the offense in this game.
The Pick: Virginia Tech – I love the Angry Wave, but the departures of so many key pieces to this historic two year run means we’ll be seeing a vastly different team and one I can’t trust in a matchup against a Hokies team that is trending upwards and losing so few pieces.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina (8-4) vs. West Virginia (8-4)
5:30 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
North Carolina continued their weird trend of having great quarterback play and having it translate to less wins than expected. Likely top ten pick Drake Maye will sit out in preparation for the NFL Draft, and the Tar Heels will also be without leading receiver Tez Walker and star linebacker Cedric Gray. Omarion Hampton will be the key on offense for the Tar Heels, as the near 1,500 yard rusher led the ACC and finished 5th in the nation in yards. The Tar Heels pass defense will be tested after finishing last in the ACC and its leading defender Alijah Huzzie out with injury.
Neal Brown entered 2023 as the head coach on the hottest seat, but he coached his ass off and the end result was the first eight win regular season since 2018 for the Mountaineers. On offense, they rely on one of the best run games in the country with 234 yards per game (4th overall) on the ground and three rushers with over 700 yards on the season. They aren’t quite the Pat White-Steve Slaton era Mountaineers, but still great regardless. The only big loss for West Virginia in this game will be all-American center Zach Frazier.
The Pick: West Virginia – I’d feel a lot better about this pick if the Mountaineers offense played more to the Tar Heels defensive weakness (passing game), but they should still be able to rack up yards on the ground, especially with Cedric Gray out for the Heels. If West Virginia can keep momentum and control the clock, it’ll put North Carolina in a bad spot with an inexperienced quarterback.
DIRECTV Holiday Bowl: #15 Louisville (10-3) vs. USC (7-5)
8:00 PM ET – FOX
2023 was a very successful season for Louisville under new head coach Jeff Brohm. They finished 10-3, beat Notre Dame, and played in the ACC Championship. The Cardinals offense was very balanced, ranking mid pack in both passing and rushing yards, but they’ll be without lead rusher Jawhar Jordan and leading receiver Jamari Thrash. On defense, Louisville is stout against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game and has a good pass rush headlined by ACC sack leader Ashton Gillotte (11).
On the opposite end of the spectrum, it was a hellish season for the Trojans. At one point, the Trojans were 6-0 and in the thick of the playoff race before faltering against tough competition and ending on a 1-5 run. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was fired after continued suboptimal performance from his unit. Star quarterback Caleb Williams will sit out in preparation for the NFL Draft and they’ll be without leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd and second leading receiver Brendan Rice as well. The good news is that while they’ve had plenty of portal entries, most are closer to depth pieces as opposed to starters.
The Pick: Louisville – This is one of the tougher picks this bowl season. Even with Caleb Williams gone, I feel like Miller Moss is a capable enough passer in that offense to compete, but Louisville feels like it’s the better team as they actually have a playable defense.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (7-5) vs. #20 Oklahoma State (9-4)
9:00 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
Texas A&M finally fired Jimbo Fisher this offseason after another disappointing season, and with him will leave another mass of talent from those previous top ranked recruiting classes. When you look at the Aggies depth chart for this game, it’s missing plenty of names and they’ll be playing third-string quarterback Jaylen Henderson again after Max Johnson left for North Carolina.
Oklahoma State looked dead in the water after an ass kicking from South Alabama in September, as they had no quarterback play and a struggling team overall, but they reeled off five straight wins (including a win over rival Oklahoma) to keep the season alive. It appears as of this writing that Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon will play for the Cowboys after leading the nation in rushing, and star pass rusher Collin Oliver also appears set to play.
The Pick: Oklahoma State – The Aggies want to sim this game and get a jump on the 2024 season while Mike Gundy and his Cowboys are going to want to cap the year with double digit wins. This one feels easy.
Thursday, December 28th
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: #24 SMU (11-2) vs. Boston College (6-6)
11:00 AM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
SMU went out on top of the AAC, winning the conference before departing for the ACC next season. A loss to TCU early in the season was ultimately too much to overcome in the race for a New Years Six bowl, so the Mustangs get rewarded with a post-Christmas trip to…Boston? Ew. The Mustangs offense is a threat both in the passing and rushing game, and averaged over 40 points per game. Backup quarterback Kevin Jennings proved his worth in a win over Tulane, and the talent at the skill positions is immense: they had three running backs eclipse 400 yards and eight receivers eclipse 300 yards. The defense was surprisingly good too, allowing just 17.4 points per game.
Jeff Hafley entered 2023 as a coach on one of the hottest seats, and after a 1-3 start it seemed like he destined to be fired. The Eagles reeled off five straight wins though to reach bowl eligibility, but then lost their final three games to fall back to .500. The good news is that they aren’t losing much beyond the guys that were lost to injuries earlier in the season, and freshman quarterback Thomas Castellanos has some juice in the run game as an electric playmaker. They will also have obvious home field advantage.
The Pick: SMU – I think SMU is lightyears better than Boston College from a talent level, but I also suspect Rhett Lashlee and company are going to want to enter the offseason with a win over a future conference opponent. The weather, travel, and kickoff time could potentially keep this closer than expected though.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (6-6) vs. Miami (7-5)
2:15 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
The Scarlet Knights rode a winnable early season schedule to bowl eligibility in 2023, winning 6 of their first 8 contests before a tough finale in Big Ten play. It was Rutgers first .500 or better regular season since 2014, though, so it’s proof of a potential trending up in Piscataway. They were one of the worst teams in the country in passing the ball, ranking 127th in yards per game, but running back Kyle Monangai ran for over 1,000 yards and has committed to returning in 2024. Star corner Max Melton opted out, which will be a big loss for a pass defense that ranked top five in the Big Ten.
The Hurricanes didn’t quite take the step up many (like myself) expected this season, but you can tell by watching that they are trending upwards and just capped a top five recruiting class. They will, however, be missing a lot of talent for opt outs, with 4 or more on both sides of the ball. Jacurri Brown, who started games in 2022 but redshirted this season, will get the start and he’s more of a runner than a passer.
The Pick: Miami – This is a toss up. I think all all of the opt outs for Miami will keep this game very close, but it also presents an opportunity for a lot of Cristobals young players to shine. The Canes are going to want to grind the ball with Brown and freshman back Mark Fletcher, both large athletic runners, in the cold weather.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: #18 NC State (9-3) vs. #25 Kansas State (8-4)
5:45 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
NC State got by mostly with a standout defense in 2023. Offensively, they weren’t in the top 100 of passing offenses at the FBS level and their leading rusher was quarterback Brennan Armstrong (544 yards). However, not all is boring on that side of the ball. Freshman standout Kevin Concepcion was a revelation, leading the team in both receptions (64) and yards from scrimmage (1,064) as a do-it-all weapon. He announced he’ll be returning to the Wolfpack next season, and will be an exciting player to watch in this game. On defense, NC State will be missing the heart of the defense in Payton Wilson, who finished the season with 138 total tackles, 6 sacks, and 5 turnovers. Beyond that, though, they’ll have most of their starters on that side of the ball for a unit that allowed just 20.2 points per game.
Kansas State lost four games in 2023, a little bit of a disappointment after winning the Big 12 in 2022, but all four came by one score so the Wildcats were in every game they played until the last second. Quarterback Will Howard left via the portal, but freshman Avery Johnson is an exciting prospect (Was the second highest ranked recruit at the position for the Wildcats in the past 20 years behind Josh Freeman). Offensive coordinator Collin Klein left to take the same job at Texas A&M, so thats something to keep an eye on here. The defense was solid yet again, but star safety Kobe Savage left via the portal which should be a big miss for the secondary.
The Pick: Kansas State – Another toss up. This pretty much comes down to how little I trust Brennan Armstrong, and missing such an impactful player like Payton Wilson on the defensive side of the ball. I like what I saw out of Avery Johnson in the run game earlier in the season, and I think with a month of preparation he should be fine in this game.
Valero Alamo Bowl: #14 Arizona (9-3) vs. #12 Oklahoma (10-2)
9:15 PM ET – ESPN/ESPN+
No team was hotter down the stretch than the Arizona Wildcats, which is not a statement anybody expected to make heading into the season. They won their final six games, four of which were against (at the time) top 25 teams. They were 12th in the nation in passing yards per game (304.5) thanks in large part to the emergence of quarterback Noah Fifita and a pair of future NFL receivers in Tetairoa McMillan and Jacob Cowing. The defense wasn’t anything to laugh at, either, averaging just 20.8 points per game allowed. Linebackers Jacob Manu (97 tackles – 6.5 sacks) and Taylor Upshaw (8.5) are serious playmakers to watch.
A late rally to beat arch rival Texas and a 7-0 start was an impressive start coming off a 6-6 regular season in 2022, but close losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks ultimately derailed the Sooners quest for the Big 12 Championship and potential Playoff birth. The offense was lethal, finishing third in the country with 43.2 points per game, but offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby (Mississippi State head coach) and quarterback Dillon Gabriel (transferred to Oregon) won’t be around, but freshman Jackson Arnold has had people raving since last offseason. The offensive line will also be without three starters in this game. On defense, Danny Stutsman is the ringleader from the linebacker spot, finishing with 99 tackles and safety Billy Bowman had 6 interceptions, tied for second in the nation.
The Pick: Oklahoma – The Wildcats had a great season and showed positive signs of progression, but I’ll buy the Jackson Arnold hype here and take the Sooners. At the end of the day, I think the Oklahoma defense will make more plays than the Arizona defense will in what could very well become an Alamo Bowl shootout.
