Why this conference is fun
There’s no Boise St. or James Madison to dominate the conference. Games are played on Tuesdays and Wednesdays in October. You are guaranteed at least one comically bad defense somewhere. I’m open to other reasons.
Joking aside, honestly Conference USA feels like the most pure form of the sport we all love so much. It’s generally low stakes in the college football landscape. There is little talk of NIL. And sure there are transfers just like anywhere else. But most of the names are not changing schools with an eye on being a first rounder in next year’s NFL Draft. They are looking for opportunity to play. Just don’t expect too many upsets over Power 4 opponents.
Top Tier Teams (in predicted order of finish)
Delaware
The past two years, the conference champion has been in their second year at the FBS level. In 2024 it was Jacksonville St. Last year it was Kennesaw St. Delaware is far more likely to follow the pattern than Missouri St. (Which means it might actually be Missouri St.)
The Blue Hens boast the top returning quarterback in Nick Minicucci and several skill players to throw and hand the ball off to. I can see this offense being really, good. On the flip side, solid defenses in this conference are just hard to come by. So if they can just get a couple stops, the offense can carry them pretty far.
Jacksonville State
If Minicucci isn’t the best returning quarterback in the conference, it’s Jacksonville State’s Caden Creel.
Creel threw for over 1,500 yards and ran for over 1,000. He also had Conference Player of the Year Cam Cook to hand off to, who has since moved on to West Virginia, but I expect them to still be able to run the ball. Some pass catchers will need to step up, but they were able to keep defensive pieces in a conference that is hard to do in. This team has what it takes to win the conference. And oh by the way, Jacksonville State plays at Delaware Nov. 28.
Western Kentucky
The quintessential bridesmaid on CUSA, Western Kentucky is always good enough to strike fear into anyone on their schedule. Yet never seem good enough to win the conference outright. Expect more of the same from this Hilltopper squad.
The quarterback battle is an interesting one, between sophomore incumbent Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Florida St. transfer Brock Glenn. They better get that choice right, because the schedule begins with 4 of their first 5 games on the road (at Nevada, Georgia, Indiana and New Mexico St with a home game against Mercyhurst). That could do some damage to the team’s psyche.
Liberty
The one team in CUSA that should be able to use the Transfer Portal and NIL to their advantage more than any other is the Liberty Flames. They’ve been able to bring in quarterbacks with regularity, and a skill position player here and there. But last year’s 4-8 record showed that wasn’t enough.
This year may be more of the same, or back to what Jamey Chadwell does best. The starting quarterback is expected to be either Deshawn Purdie (Wake Forest) or Jaylin Henderson (West Virginia). Between them and incoming RB Kanye Udoh (Army and Arizona St.), this offense could be fun. But that defense needs some real work. If they can be even average, the Flames have a chance to reclaim their spot at the top of the conference.
Wild Cards
Florida International
Between a young, energetic coach entering his second year and Pitbull money being available, there may be something cooking at FIU.
Willie Simmons enters his second season after taking the Panthers to a bowl game in his debut. Former App State quarterback JJ Kohl arrives to Miami to get the offense going. Kohl is a more classic dropback passer than Keyonte Jenkins, but he can’t do it alone. If a couple receivers step up and running back Anthony Carrie can do some damage on the ground, the Panthers can be feisty because I actually like their defense. There’s a pretty big “But…” that I’ll get to later.
Missouri State
Possibly my favorite transfer in the conference is former UTEP Quarterback Skyler Locklear coming to Missouri State. And he may not even win the starting job.
Locklear will battle Duke transfer Henry Belin IV to run the new look Bears offense (coach Casey Woods came from SMU). Whoever wins the starting job at least has an all-conference receiver to throw to in Jmariyae Robinson. A tough road slate may make wins hard to come by, but it feels like they still have a chance to surprise.
Kennesaw State
The defending conference champs were last seen being absolutely curb stomped by Western Michigan in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. But don’t let that minimize what was a very successful second season in the FBS for the Owls.
Like most teams, expect them to look much different this year. Quarterback Amari Odom was essentially traded to Syracuse for their backup Rickie Collins, who will likely run the offense this season. With only two returning OL on offense, it’s hard telling what they will look like on that side of the ball. With the D at least returning 5 starters. they may have to lead the way for a while.
Sam Houston State
I’m willing to chalk last year up as an outlier. Sam Houston didn’t have a home stadium, as it was undergoing renovation. On top of that, it was the first year under head coach Phil Longo. It just feels like last year was designed to be a transition year.
Their stadium is renovated. They have a quarterback in Landyn Locke in his second year in Longo’s system. There’s not much else returning from last year, but that may not be a bad thing. In a conference that is seemingly always undergoing turnover, there are openings in the standings for the Bearkats – who I remind you won 10 games just two years ago – to take advantage of.
Would be surprised if they made a Bowl
New Mexico State
If not for Diego Pavia leaving an imprint on this program 3 years ago, there wouldn’t be much to hang your hat on if you are a New Mexico State fan. I’m not sure if there is much this year either.
The Aggies turn to Trey Hedden to lead the offense. Hedden is transferring in from FCS Furman, so it is hard to tell what to expect. But they do have a decent receiving corps and five returning starters on defense. This is just one of those programs you have to assume won’t be very good and be pleasantly surprised when they are.
Middle Tennessee State
Call it completely a vibes call, but if I were to pick a G6 Program most likely to fire their coach and phone it in the last half of the season, my pick would be the Blue Raiders.
It just feels like there have been very little stability since former coach Rick Stockstill retired. And with the graduation of Nicholas Vattiato, you would think they could bring in a transfer to replace him. Nope. Maybe Roman Gagliano is that guy, but I am just having a hard time finding reasons to get excited about this squad.
Five Games to Circle
Oct. 2: Liberty at Delaware
A Friday night in Delaware. What could be better?
Seriously though, if Delaware is going to be the team I think they can be, they have to get off to a 1-0 start in conference. An as an added bonus, it would come at the expense of a Liberty squad looking to prove last season was a fluke.
Oct. 13: FIU at Jacksonville State
Oct. 14: Kennesaw State at Missouri State/Western Kentucky at Sam Houston State
I am basically grouping all three of these games together, as they are a part of the same Tuesday/Wednesday grouping of games that Conference USA does in October. It’s no MACtion, but CUSAnity reaches its peak with these games.
Nov. 28: Jacksonville State at Delaware
This feels like one of those games where neither team shows too much because a rematch for the conference title has already been locked up a week later. But if it’s not that, I feel like at least one of these teams will be fighting for a title game birth.
Predicting the Futures (Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 06/25)
Florida International Under 6.5 wins (-134)
Sure it is a bit juicy, BUT… (I told you I’d come back to that.) take a look at that road schedule.
At South Florida. At Florida Atlantic. At Jacksonville State. At Liberty. At Delaware. At Kennesaw State. Even if they win all their home games (which is not guaranteed since this is still FIU we are talking about) they need to find a win on that road slate. I don’t see it.
Sam Houston State Over 3.5 wins (+128)
To make up for the FIU bet, I give you a plus sign.
I mentioned all the reasons that I see Sam Houston improving this year. Hoping that renovated stadium offers a legit advantage, they host Tulsa, Nicholls, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee. Tulsa and Western are the hardest of those. Getting the others get you over, regardless of the road games.
Delaware to win CUSA (+790)
If you give me an established quarterback and 6 other starters returning on that side of the ball from a bowl team, I like my chances to succeed. Especially in a conference as unpredictable as CUSA. And with threats like Liberty, FIU and Jacksonville State all coming to Delaware, they might be able to afford a loss at Western Kentucky.
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