For longtime readers, I have tried to preview the conferences formerly known as the Group of 5 in the context of predicting the Over/Under Win totals. But I realized letting Big Vegas dictate how I view these teams was only scratching the surface of what makes these teams interesting in this current college football landscape.
So I am going to dive a little deeper. Go out on a further limb. Give you games and names to know. (Or remember fondly from a previous school.) Because apparently not everyone lives and dies by the win total of Rice. Who knew?
Why this conference is fun
Long viewed as the best of the G…However Many, some coaches may see this is a stepping stone to greener pastures. (Looking at Alex Golesh and Ryan Silverfield’s direction.) While some players may see this as a chance at redemption without being forgotten about. With that in mind, here are a few of the quarterbacks that have transferred to American Conference teams.
- Michael Van Buren (Mississippi State and LSU) and Luke Kromenhoek (Florida State and Mississippi State) are BOTH at USF.
- Air Noland (Ohio State and South Carolina) is at Memphis. And he may not even beat out 2025 Harlon Hill Trophy Winner Marcus Stokes (West Florida).
- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion (Louisiana and Houston) is Tulane’s likely starter.
- Former Hoosier and UCF Knight Tayven Jackson will likely be starting at North Texas.
- Mitch Griffis (Wake Forest and Texas Tech) will battle Emory Williams (Miami Fla.) for the starter position at East Carolina.
- Jacurri Brown (Miami Fla. and UCF) will likely be running the offense at Rice.
You get the idea. Regardless of how you feel about the turnover from year to year in college football, the juxtaposition of that amount of change with Service Academies Army and Navy in the same conference makes for a compelling watch from year to year.
Top Tier Teams (in predicted order of finish)
South Florida
I may be drinking a bit of Kool-Aid here, but I do believe in the “Year after the Year” theory.
A year ago, following wins over Boise St., Florida and a dismantling of conference foe North Texas, the USF Bulls looked like the G5 Rep for the CFP. Things leveled off a bit, but Alex Golesh, Byrum Brown, WR Chaz Nimrod (yes I just wanted to type that name) and company used that success to land in the SEC at Auburn.
But the transfer portal and NIL giveth as much as it taketh away.
Replacing Golesh is Ohio State WR Coach and perpetual “soon-to-be Head Coach” Brian Hartline. Hartline has been viewed as a can’t miss coach seemingly since names like Olave and JSN were catching passes from CJ Stroud. He’s landed in Tampa at a school looking to spend money both on updating resources and bringing in talent to succeed. (And probably catch the eye of the ACC, but that’s for another time.) Teams like Tulane, Navy and North Texas lost a lot from successful teams last year and this year’s schedule is not as daunting. Trust pedigree.
UTSA
There are a lot of newcomers at the quarterback position, but the best returning quarterback in the conference can be found in San Antonio.
Owen McCown enters his third year as a starter with the potential to put up monster numbers. The son of Josh McCown is a legit NFL prospect in his own right. Their defense has a lot of questions, but it wasn’t long ago that the Roadrunners were winning 42-38 games on the reg. This version has a similar makeup.
Army
The Black Knights are at their most dangerous when they have an experienced signal caller. They took a step back to 7-6 last year after the departure of Bryson Daily, but they seem primed for a rebound behind the return of Cale Hellums, four starters on the offensive line and sophomore breakout candidate Godspower Nwawuihe at running back.
This offense could be scary good.
Wild Cards
Memphis
Memphis always feels like they should be far and away the class of this conference, but for whatever reason never quite get there. Perhaps new coach Charles Huff will be the answer.
Huff, who has been successful in the Sun Belt at Marshall and Southern Miss, tends to not stay at one place for too long. That has not gone unnoticed. But Memphis is a place that has a lot of talent available, and if one of the previously mentioned quarterbacks hit, this team (despite having ONE returning starter, left guard Parker Mitchell) is the wildest of wild cards.
Navy
Losing multiple draft picks to the NFL would affect most programs. Surely the Naval Academy can’t lose the likes of Eli Heidenreich on offense and Landon Robinson on defense to the pro game and not miss a beat.
Quarterback Braxton Woodson is talented, but can he replicate what the departed Blake Horvath was able to accomplish? The skill position players they lost were so good that a repeat of last year’s 11-2 record seems almost impossible. But this is still a bowl team.
Tulane
Hey, remember when this team made the College Football Playoff last year? Good times.
The program really found its stride the past few years under Willie Fritz, then Jon Sumrall. In comes Will Hall, who didn’t exactly set the Sun Belt on fire when he was coaching at Southern Miss but has done well here in New Orleans as a coordinator for both Fritz and Sumrall. That’s the main question for me.
The cupboard isn’t bare with talented Chriss-Gremillion at quarterback and former Florida State Seminole and Indiana Hoosier Jaylin Lucas at running back. Does Hall keep the Green Wave rolling or is this where the mini dynasty ends?
Florida Atlantic
If you believe in the second-year bump, then this team could be one to watch.
Coach Zach Kittley and quarterback Caden Veltkamp return for another year together. A skeptic may see their 4-8 record last year and say they aren’t that good as a duo so it doesn’t matter. But the other side of the coin will note that continuity is valuable these days and their defense was atrocious last year. It would also help if a running back stepped up to give the Air Raid some balance.
Call it a gut feeling, but someone always comes out of nowhere to make an impact. Maybe it’s FAU’s turn.
East Carolina
Stop me if you have heard this before. “There’s not a lot returning, but if the P4 transfer quarterback hits, this team will be in a bowl.”
East Carolina is the epitome of that. Griffis probably gives them a higher floor but Williams offers a higher ceiling. And they do bring in former North Texas offensive coordinator Jordan Davis, who will know how to get former Mean Green receiver Landon Sides the ball. Coach Blake Harrell is 14-5 since taking over midseason 2024, so there’s something cooking there. Road games at Memphis and Army are probably the toughest challenges. Is this the year it all comes together?
Temple
We’ve reached the Temple Talk portion of the column.
Temple is kinda the inverse to most of the teams touched on to this point. Sure, they brought in transfers as quarterback, but Penn State third-stringer Jaxon Smolik is unproven and relatively unknown. These Owls actually do build through recruiting and development. A novel concept.
I don’t know if the talent is at the level of other teams in the conference at this point (their best offensive player is Tight End Peter Clarke) and I don’t think Lincoln Financial offers much of a home field advantage. They also don’t wow you with an Air Raid or triple-option style offense. But I trust K.C. Keeler to do more with less as much as any other head coach not at a service academy in this conference.
Tulsa
At 4-8, it wasn’t necessarily a successful season in Tulsa last year, save for their win in Stillwater that ended the Mike Gundy Era. But they did end the season winning 2 of their last 3 including a victory at Army, so there are signs of optimism.
Second year coach Tre Lamb is still in the building phase of this challenge, but the Golden Hurricane has a chance to play Giant Killer again with a rematch on their home soil against Oklahoma State and at Arkansas. Getting even one of those two and a pretty easy home conference slate (which I’ll get to later) could make this team one to watch all season long.
Would be surprised if they made a Bowl
Rice
The Rice Owls have been the hotness in the American since, well, last year, when Scott Abell arrived with his unique Spread version of the Option. But this is a team that I need to see succeed in order to believe it. I like this as a landing spot for Jacurri Brown. I don’t like an early season game at Notre Dame as a confidence booster.
North Texas
Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young ain’t walking through that door. But former West Virginia coach Neal Brown and running back Jaheim White are. Beyond that, there are a lot of questions on defense. Oh, and they open their season at National Champion Indiana. Welcome back Tayven. The Hoosiers may be just and merciful to you.
UAB
The Trent Dilfer Era came and went with very little positive impact. So replacing him with Alex Mortensen, who debuted by leading the Blazers to an upset win over Memphis last year, is a step in the right direction. Even a simple vibe shift is a good starting point, as this is far from a hopeless cause, but the talent just isn’t there. Yet.
Charlotte
Second year head coach Tim Albin is the right guy. I firmly believe that. But they have the same issues as teams like Temple and South Florida. Home games at an off campus NFL stadium and an NIL account that isn’t going to wow many four and five stars. I want to be out in front when they eventually figure it out, but that time hasn’t come. Yet.
Five Games to Circle
Sept. 12 – Navy at Florida Atlantic, South Florida at Army
Early conference games are always more interesting in theory than in execution. Teams generally want to use the non-conference games to work out the kinks before conference play. But FBS vs. FCS doesn’t move the needle very much. So here we are.
We have two Week Two games where the road team is likely going to finish toward the top of the conference standings, but also look drastically different than their 2025 versions. So it is entirely possible that both Navy and South Florida are looking at 0-1 in the conference standings for a few weeks after these games at conference foes who seem to have a bit more continuity.
Oct. 22 – East Carolina at Memphis
East Carolina and weeknight games fit like hand and glove.
Last year the Pirates played 4 games on Thursday night. This year, there are 4 more games on various Thursdays and Fridays. It’s a good idea in theory, as it gives East Carolina a level of exposure they may not get on Saturdays. But going to the Tiger Den in Memphis on a Thursday night is a less than ideal proposition.
Oct. 24 – UTSA at Tulane
As you probably figured out, I’m not overly high on Tulane this year. But along with the questions post Sumrall, the schedule does them no favors. Before even getting to this game, they go to P4s Duke and Kansas State and host Memphis the week prior. However, you definitely want UTSA to come to your place. And this is the kind of game the Roadrunners need to get to challenge for a spot in the conference championship game.
Dec. 12 – Navy vs. Army (at East Rutherford, N.J.)
One of these years, this game is going to be played two weeks in a row including for a conference championship. This could be the year.
Predicting the Futures (Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 06/20)
Tulsa Over 5.5 Wins (-110)
I don’t love the idea of starting the season off against Oklahoma State after beating them last year in Stillwater. I think the Cowboys will be good and there is still an element of revenge at play.
But…..it’s not impossible they get either them or Arkansas. The other two non-conference games are at Sam Houston State and East Texas A&M. Split the difference and say 2-2. Can they get 4 conference wins among North Texas, Army, Florida Atlantic and Charlotte at home and roadies at Navy, Rice, Tulane and UTSA? No Memphis. No South Florida. No East Carolina. This feel like a team that can get to a bowl at 6-6 at least.
North Texas Under 5.5 Wins (+100)
The Mean Green are the sacrificial lambs to the slaughter Week One, as they head to Bloomington, Indiana. Pray for them. But other road games include Texas State, Tulsa, Navy, UTSA and Tulane. Two out of six wins is probably the best case scenario. There are very winnable games at home against the likes of Houston Christian, UNLV, Charlotte, FAU, Rice and UAB, but if a couple of those swing the wrong way, this team could struggle.
Basically, ask yourself if this feels like a bowl team? Because if not, then 5 wins in their ceiling.
Memphis Under 7.5 Wins (-114)
The non-conference schedule any other year would look great.
You get games at UNLV and at Boise St. sandwiched between at home game against Arkansas State. A couple wins on the road against the conference favorites in the *checks notes from previous column* Mountain West and Pac-12 respectively, and you move to the head of the CFP class. But there are too many questions at Memphis with the new regime to look at those as wins so early in the season.
Road conference games at Charlotte, Tulane, USF and Navy as well as home games against East Carolina, Army and Temple offer no relief. There are almost certain home wins against Arkansas St., Tennessee-Martin, at Charlotte and UAB, but the other 4 may be a sweat.
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