I’d like to say that I went undefeated last week because my predictions were spot on…unfortunately I failed the people because my focus was on turkey and not predictions. HOWEVER, I’m back this week to bring you a prediction for every conference championship.
Last article’s results:
• 4/7 correct
• 58/91 for the year
o Loin Games = 3-1 for the year
• Surprise: Washington needing a last second field goal to beat Wazzu could have been put in the disappointment section, but I think this is more surprising than disappointing. Washington was a 16.5 pt favorite but just couldn’t put away the pesky Cougars.
• Best game: Ohio St. vs Michigan lived up to the hype. It came down to the last drive where Michigan sealed the win with it’s second interception of Kyle McCord.
• Disappointment: Auburn’s prevent defense. The number one rule on prevent defense is to not let anyone get behind you…on 4th and 31 you allowed the receiver to get behind you and win the game.
Now to this week’s slate.
Conference USA Championship: New Mexico St. at (24) Liberty *Friday
New Mexico St. who’s normally recognized for how bad they are, comes into conference championship week at 10-3 and a SEC win under their belt. Liberty comes to town as a very balanced team – 5th ranked offense and 38th ranked defense nationally. I think New Mexico St. is able to keep this one close in the first half, but Jamey Chadwell and the Flames put an end to the Aggies magical season.
Liberty 38 New Mexico St. 20
PAC 12 Championship: (5) Oregon vs (3) Washington *Fridayin Las Vegas, NV
Since Oregon and Washington last met, both teams’ seasons have been a tale of two cities. Oregon, since losing to Washington, won their remaining 6 games by an average of 30 points while Washington hasn’t won a game by more than 10 points in the same time frame. With Oregon hitting their stride at the right time and Washington stumbling to the end of the season, I think this game could get ugly.
Oregon 42 Washington 27
MAC Championship: Miami (Ohio) vs Toledo *in Detroit, MI
Toledo’s DeQuan Finn is probably the Group of 5’s best kept secret as he has thrown for 2,375 yards and 21 TDs to accompany 530 yards rushing on the season, but he’s not the best part of the team. The Rocket’s defense ranks 32nd in the country and as helped them get to the final Maction game of the year. Miami of Ohio brings in the 24th ranked defense, but the difference in this game is the Red Hawks lowly offense (99thranked offense). Looks like Team Rockets are blasting off again.
Toledo 25 Miami (OH) 10
Big 12 Championship: (18) Oklahoma St. vs (7) Texas *in Arlington, TX
This game has the ingredients to be fun…but it could also get ugly. Texas is trying to get style points at this point of the year to make sure the College Football Playoff Committee has to put them in the playoff. Stats and analysis aside, I think this is what puts Texas ahead and ahead big. Look for the Pokes to look to Ollie Gordon II, early and often, but for Texas to lock him down and light up the Oklahoma St. 112th ranked defense.
Texas 41 Oklahoma St. 20
Mountain West Championship: Boise St. at UNLV
UNLV lives and dies by the running game and Lou Groza finalist Jose Pizano (this is a first where I’m listing a kicker as a strength – you don’t get analysis like this anywhere else). Boise St. has limped into the Montain West Championship at 7-5 and are coming off the recent firing of their head coach Andy Avalos in week 10. UNLV and Barry Odom are able to capitalize on the wounded Broncos.
UNLV 27 Boise St. 21
SEC Championship: (1) Georgia vs (8) Alabama *in Atlanta, GA
I have flipped back and forth on this game and I’ve finally decided to flip one last time on my latest flip and stick with a team that I think will win…All jokes aside, this will be one of the biggest games of the weekend – win and Georgia is in, lose and que the chaos. Georgia brings the 6th ranked offense and 9thranked defense while Alabama comes in with the 48th ranked offense and 17th ranked defense (key stat). Yes Georgia is ranked highly all around, HOWEVER, they haven’t played a legitimate defense until this weekend and they haven’t been tested against a top 10 team this year (if you say Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Missouri count – shame on you). Alabama wins this one with their Lou Groza finalist kicker Will Reichard (this has to be a record number to time that a kicker and the Lou Groza award has been mentioned in a prediction blog – hang the banner).
Alabama 27 Georgia 26
AAC Championship: SMU at (22) Tulane
SMU is looking to change a vowel to a consonant (AAC -> ACC) and Tulane is staying put with their group of 5 brethren. Tulane has been there before and are putting the icing on top of their second straight amazing season. Look for Tulane and Michael Pratt to win this one by pulling away late in the game.
Tulane 34 SMU 24
Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian St. at Troy
This game is quietly one of my favorites of the weekend. App St. gets in because of JMU’s conference championship and bowl band (shame shame shaaaaaaaame on the NCAA), but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a conference championship caliber team. This game is strength on strength as Troy’s 12th ranked defense matches up with App’s 15th ranked offense. Perfect offense beats perfect defense – go Mountaineers.
App St. 21 Troy 17
ACC Championship: (14) Louisville vs (4) Florida St. *in Charlotte, NC
If I’ve flipped on the SEC championship game 100 times, I’ve flipped on this one 99. I have no idea who these teams are anymore as Florida St. lost the nucleus of their offense in QB Jordan Travis and Tate Rodemaker did not answer the bell against Florida. Louisiville had an outsider’s chance at the playoff, but that was put to bed and given a glass of warm milk last week as Kentucky beat the Cardinals. I think this game comes down to who can execute more on offense as both defenses boast very stout defensive lines and are able to put pressure on the QB (FSU 2nd in the ACC in sacks (38) / Louisville 6th in ACC in sacks (30). Cardinals make it easier on the College Football Playoff Committee and end Florida St.’s playoff hopes.
Louisville 24 Florida St. 10
BIG 10 Championship: (16) Iowa vs (2) Michigan *in Indianapolis, IN
This game has the ingredients to be ugly. Spoliers, Michigan wins this game, but I think it’ll be a helluva lot closer than Vegas thinks (Michigan to win by 23.5). Yes Iowa has been a laughing stock all year with their comical over/unders and yes this might be the worst offense with a 10-2 record in the history of the sport. However, this team has a playoff caliber defense and special teams. This won’t be enough to beat Michigan, but it will be enough to make things interesting. I think Michigan gets 4 FG’s and TD on their way to this ugly victory.
Michigan 19 Iowa 3
