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Jayden Daniels’ Heisman Campaign vs. 2-3 Loss Winners: A Matchup Analysis

Now, we wait. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is likely down to two front runners: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. One plays a 13th game – another “datapoint,” if you will – while the other sits at home.

Washington QB Michael Penix, Jr. was the Heisman frontrunner until the last couple of games when he began playing below the high standard he set early in the season (four touchdown passes in games against Power Five competition, including against Oregon, and five touchdowns against Boise State in the opener). Many believe that Nix is the new favorite, and likely locks up the coveted trophy if he leads the Ducks to avenge their one loss of the season to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Nix has over 3,900 passing yards, 37 touchdowns to only two interceptions, 159 yards on the ground, and six touchdowns through 12 regular season games.

Though Nix is mobile, Jayden Daniels is the consummate dual-threat QB, akin to 2010 Heisman winner Cam Newton, among others. Daniels’ statistics outweigh the production of both Pac-12 Heisman-contending QBs. His only disadvantage is that his team isn’t in national championship contention. In fact, Daniels’ LSU team has been out of title contention since losing to Ole Miss in late September, and Alabama rolled, no pun intended, to a perfect 8-0 SEC record to clinch the West division title. But the Heisman Trophy, according to the historic Downtown Athletic Club that presents the award, is awarded to the “most outstanding player in college football” each season. It doesn’t say the “most outstanding player that’s on a team destined for the college football playoff or national championship.”

Daniels’ performance in 2023 justifies Heisman consideration no matter what his team’s record is. Also, his numbers are better than other Heisman-winning QBs from the last 20-30 years. To show how worthy Daniels is of college football’s highest honor this year, I pulled key statistics for all Heisman winners since 2000 who played only 12 regular season games before voting, had at least two losses, and did not finish in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings or Top 2 in the BCS.

Compare Daniels’ season to the five QBs since 2002 to win the Heisman Trophy after their teams lost 2-3 regular season games and didn’t play in conference championship games. Then pretend you have a vote. Would you vote for Jayden Daniels to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy? Let us know on social media.

Jayden Daniels, LSU (9-3), 2023

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Trophy Ceremony: TBD; No. 13 leading into conference championship Saturday

Passing Yards: 3,812

Yards Per Attempt: 11.7

Passing TD/INT: 40/4

Rushing Yards: 1,134 yards

Rushing TDs: 10

Total Yards: 4,946

Total TDs: 50

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: Florida: 372 passing yards, three touchdowns (0 INTs), 234 yards rushing and two touchdowns


Lamar Jackson, Louisville (9-3), 2016

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Trophy Ceremony: CFP No. 13

Passing Yards: 3,390

Yards Per Attempt: 8.7

Passing TD/INT: 30/9

Rushing Yards: 1,538

Rushing TDs: 21

Total Yards: 4,928

Total TDs: 51

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: At Boston College: 231 passing yards, four touchdowns (1 INT), 70% completion rate, 185 yards rushing and three touchdowns


Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (10-2), 2012

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Trophy Ceremony: BCS No. 9

Passing Yards: 3,319

Yards Per Attempt: 8.5

Passing TD/INT: 24/8

Rushing Yards: 1,181

Rushing TDs: 19

Total Yards: 4,500

Total TDs: 43

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: Arkansas (neutral site): 453 passing yards, three touchdowns (0 INTs), 76% completion rate, 104 yards rushing and one touchdown


Robert Griffen III, Baylor (9-3), 2011

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Trophy Ceremony: BCS No. 12

Passing Yards: 3,998

Yards Per Attempt: 10.7

Passing TD/INT: 36/6

Rushing Yards: 644

Rushing TDs: 9

Total Yards: 4,642

Total TDs: 45

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: Oklahoma: 479 passing yards, four touchdowns (0 INTs), 62% completion rate, 72 yards rushing (no rushing touchdowns)


Tim Tebow, Florida (9-3), 2007

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Ceremony: BCS No. 12

Passing Yards: 3,286

Yards Per Attempt: 9.4

Passing TD/INT: 32/6

Rushing Yards: 895

Rushing TDs: 23

Total Yards: 4,181

Total TDs: 55

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: At South Carolina: 304 passing yards, two touchdowns (1 INT), 69% completion rate, 120 yards rushing and five touchdowns


Carson Palmer, USC (10-2), 2002

BCS/CFP Ranking Before Heisman Trophy Ceremony: BCS No. 4

Passing Yards: 3,639

Yards Per Attempt: 8.1

Passing TD/INT: 32/10

Rushing Yards: -126

Rushing TDs: 4

Total Yards: 3,513

Total TDs: 36

Best Statistical Performance Against P5 Competition: At Oregon: 448 passing yards, five touchdowns (1 INT), 74% completion rate, -14 yards rushing (no rushing touchdowns)

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