It is hard to believe we are heading into November with just one month remaining in the college football regular season. There are still plenty of teams alive in the College Football Playoff race. Tulane, however, has been eliminated following its blowout loss to UTSA.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
Georgia Tech 8-0 (5-0)
Georgia Tech is sitting in prime position to make the College Football Playoff this fall. They likely only need to win two of their next three games to lock up a spot in the ACC Championship. If they are able to beat Georgia, the ACC Championship may not even matter.
Remaining games: at NC State, at Boston College, vs Pitt, vs Georgia
Virginia 7-1 (4-0)
Imagine talking about Virginia as a serious playoff contender before the season started. A pesky loss to NC State is the only blemish. Virginia controls its own destiny and has a manageable schedule the rest of the year. They avoided Miami, Louisville, Pitt, and SMU this fall. Are they actually good? Not sure. Do they keep winning? Yes.
Remaining games: at Cal, vs Wake Forest, at Duke, vs Virginia Tech
Louisville 6-1 (3-1)
If Louisville wins out, they have a very good chance at the playoff. They are currently ranked 16th and are capable of winning every remaining game. A marquee win over Miami boosts their resume, and their only loss came against another contender in Virginia.
Remaining games: at Virginia Tech, vs Cal, vs Clemson, at SMU, vs Kentucky
Miami FL 6-1 (2-1)
Miami has no business missing the playoff this season. They might miss the ACC Championship because of their lone conference loss, but the win over Notre Dame keeps looking better each week. Dominating South Florida also does not hurt. Win out and the Hurricanes are likely in.
Remaining games: at SMU, vs Syracuse, vs NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt
Work To Do
Pitt 6-2 (4-1)
Pitt sits in an odd position where they are unranked but very much alive. If they win out, including over Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami, they would demand serious playoff consideration. However, the loss to West Virginia continues to loom large.
Remaining games: at Stanford, vs Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, vs Miami
Needs Some Help
SMU 5-3 (3-1)
SMU appears here only because they still have a realistic shot to reach the ACC Championship. With three overall losses, an at-large playoff bid is impossible, but winning out in conference could keep them alive for a title appearance.
Remaining games: vs Miami, at Boston College, vs Louisville, at Cal
Duke 4-3 (3-1)
Like SMU, Duke has a path to the ACC Championship. Their route may actually be easier unless Clemson suddenly finds its old form. Duke has only one ranked opponent remaining, and it comes at home. If they sneak into the ACC title game and stun someone, chaos would be glorious.
Remaining games: at Clemson, at UConn, vs Virginia, at North Carolina, vs Wake Forest
Big 12
Serious Contender
BYU 8-0 (5-0)
BYU is undefeated, though that was the case at this point last year as well. Utah is their best win so far, but tough games remain, especially a trip to Texas Tech. A late-season showdown with Cincinnati may decide the conference.
Remaining games: at Texas Tech, vs TCU, at Cincinnati, vs UCF
Cincinnati 7-1 (5-0)
Cincinnati is not flashy, but they win. Brendan Sorsby has been outstanding with 20 touchdown passes and only one interception plus seven rushing touchdowns. Utah, BYU, and TCU remain, and they can likely afford only one loss.
Remaining games: at Utah, vs Arizona, vs BYU, at TCU
Texas Tech 7-1 (4-1)
Texas Tech dropped a game to Arizona State without Behren Morton. Quarterback play becomes even more crucial with Hammond out for the year. The defense gives them a real chance down the stretch, but Morton must stay healthy.
Remaining games: at Kansas State, vs BYU, vs UCF, at West Virginia
Work To Do
Houston 7-1 (4-1)
Not many expected Houston to be in this position. A second loss likely ends their playoff hopes, but if they win out they will have a legitimate case.
Remaining games: vs West Virginia, at UCF, vs TCU, at Baylor
Utah 6-2 (3-2)
Utah has played both BYU and Texas Tech, losing close in both. They are still alive but likely must win every remaining game including this weekend against Cincinnati.
Remaining games: vs Cincinnati, at Baylor, vs Kansas State, at Kansas
Needs Some Help
Kansas State 4-4 (3-2)
Kansas State is somehow still breathing. They would need multiple results to go their way, but mathematically they remain alive until a third conference loss ends their chances.
Remaining games: vs Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, at Utah, vs Colorado
TCU 6-2 (3-2)
TCU needs plenty of help and has little margin for error. Even winning out may not get them into the playoff, and making the conference championship will be difficult with two league losses.
Remaining games: vs Iowa State, at BYU, at Houston, vs Cincinnati
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana 8-0 (5-0)
Indiana has a clear path to the playoff and could even survive a loss. The schedule is favorable with only one opponent remaining above .500. Their win over Oregon gives them major insurance if needed.
Remaining games: at Maryland, at Penn State, vs Wisconsin, at Purdue
Ohio State 7-0 (4-0)
Ohio State lacks a signature win so far, but opportunities remain. Michigan still looms, and we all know the storyline there. The Buckeyes will be favored in every remaining game.
Remaining games: vs Penn State, at Purdue, vs UCLA, vs Rutgers, at Michigan
Oregon 7-1 (4-0)
A strong team with a strong profile even though Penn State has cratered. Oregon can still afford to split its biggest remaining matchups and likely get in at 10-2.
Remaining games: at Iowa, vs Minnesota, vs USC, at Washington
Work To Do
Michigan 6-2 (4-1)
Michigan still controls its path but must beat Ohio State. Their resume currently lacks substance, but three manageable games lead into The Game.
Remaining games: vs Purdue, at Northwestern, at Maryland, vs Ohio State
Iowa 6-2 (4-1)
Two massive games ahead against Oregon and USC. Sweep them and Iowa enters the final two weeks right in the hunt.
Remaining games: vs Oregon, at USC, vs Michigan State, at Nebraska
USC 5-2 (3-1)
USC has no margin for error. Their toughest matchups are still ahead, and they will need the defense to rise to the moment if they want to stay alive.
Remaining games: at Nebraska, vs Northwestern, vs Iowa, at Oregon, vs UCLA
Needs Some Help
None
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M 8-0 (5-0)
Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat to make the SEC Championship as well as the College Football Playoff. A win over Missouri this weekend should nearly stamp their ticket with only South Carolina and Texas remaining. This might finally be the year we see the Aggies make the playoff.
Remaining games: at Missouri, vs South Carolina, vs Samford, at Texas
Alabama 7-1 (5-0)
Alabama ran through a gauntlet of teams and now it feels like they finally get a breather. They can easily afford one more loss and still make the playoff. In reality, there are only one or two more difficult games on the schedule. LSU suddenly looks significantly easier with the game being played in Alabama.
Remaining games: vs LSU, vs Oklahoma, vs Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
Georgia 6-1 (4-1)
Georgia should not have trouble making the College Football Playoff if they avoid upsets. The only blemish on their record is a loss to Alabama. A few potential upsets loom with Florida, Texas, and Georgia Tech still remaining. They cannot start making plans for the playoff yet, but they are clearly positioned well to return.
Remaining games: vs Florida, at Mississippi State, vs Texas, vs Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss 7-1 (4-1)
Ole Miss might have the easiest path of any SEC team. They have taken care of business and now they should be able to cruise into November. Trinidad Chambliss and company are looking to take Ole Miss to their first ever College Football Playoff. The win over Oklahoma put them in a great spot.
Remaining games: vs South Carolina, vs The Citadel, vs Florida, at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt 7-1 (4-1)
Vanderbilt is in a great spot entering November. Diego Pavia has the team rolling after winning at Missouri last weekend. They are not out of the woods yet though. Trips to Texas and Tennessee remain, and losing one should still keep them alive, but losing both would likely end playoff hopes.
Remaining games: at Texas, vs Auburn, vs Kentucky, at Tennessee
Work To Do
Texas 6-2 (3-1)
Originally thought to be a sure playoff team before the season, Texas now needs to win out. They still have a shot to make the SEC Championship, but the schedule is daunting. Facing Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M in November suggests at least one more loss is coming. At 9-3, they likely lose all consideration.
Remaining games: vs Vanderbilt, at Georgia, vs Arkansas, vs Texas A&M
Tennessee 6-2 (3-2)
This weekend will end hopes for either Tennessee or Oklahoma as the two play in Knoxville. A third loss ends Tennessee’s playoff chances, and right now the resume lacks key wins. A win keeps them alive.
Remaining games: vs Oklahoma, vs New Mexico State, at Florida, vs Vanderbilt
Oklahoma 6-2 (2-2)
There is a path where Oklahoma loses every remaining game with how difficult the schedule is. Their win over Michigan continues to look better each week. A trip to Knoxville will not be easy, and Alabama, Missouri, and LSU still remain.
Remaining games: at Tennessee, at Alabama, vs Missouri, vs LSU
Missouri 6-2 (2-2)
Missouri is still technically alive, but without Beau Pribula, it feels like the season is slipping away. Matt Zollers will be thrown into the fire this weekend against Texas A&M. Relying on a true freshman quarterback typically does not go well. If they win, we can talk about chances.
Remaining games: vs Texas A&M, vs Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, vs Arkansas
Needs Some Help
None listed
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame 10-2
Notre Dame struggled in its first two games, losing to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points. Since then, the Fighting Irish have destroyed everyone in their path. Games against Navy and Pitt might help strengthen the resume and secure another hosting opportunity for a playoff game. It is simple: win out and you are in.
Remaining games: at Boston College, vs Navy, at Pitt, vs Syracuse, at Stanford
Group of Five
Serious Contender
Navy 7-0 (5-0)
Navy is tied for the front-runner spot as we enter November. The Midshipmen have taken care of business each week even if some wins have not been pretty. A daunting schedule remains with Notre Dame looming. North Texas, USF, and Memphis will each have something to say in the playoff chase.
Remaining games: at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs USF, at Memphis
(Army remains but the game will not factor into the Playoff)
Memphis 7-1 (6-1)
Memphis pulled off the upset against USF last weekend after somehow losing to UAB. The win over USF put them in control of the Group of Five playoff spot. Memphis must avoid another upset and focus on Navy later this month. Win out and Memphis will be in.
Remaining games: at Rice, vs Tulane, at ECU, vs Navy
Work To Do
USF 6-2 (3-1)
USF is not dead yet. They still have a path to the conference title game, and with wins over Boise State, North Texas, and Florida, 11-2 might still put them in the conversation. They need to win out and get some help. A chance to rematch Memphis would boost the resume.
Remaining games: vs UTSA, at Navy, at UAB, vs Rice
North Texas 7-1 (3-1)
North Texas got pounded by USF, but they have basically blown out everyone else. The biggest issue is a lack of a key win. Hosting Navy this weekend gives them a chance to add one, but even winning out might not be enough unless the American Conference title game opponent helps strengthen the resume.
Remaining games: vs Navy, and three others unchanged
James Madison 7-1 (5-0)
James Madison could have helped its resume greatly with a win over Louisville but fell just short. They are blowing out everyone currently, but strength of schedule is not helping. They will likely need some chaos to reach the playoff.
Remaining games: at Marshall, vs App State, vs Washington State, at Coastal Carolina
Needs Some Help
UNLV 6-1 (2-1)
The Mountain West appears a step back this year. UNLV got destroyed by Boise State but could still finish 11-1. Wins over Hawaii and New Mexico would help slightly, and beating Boise State in the conference championship would avenge the loss.
Remaining games: vs New Mexico, at Colorado State, vs Utah State, vs Hawaii, at Nevada
San Diego State 6-1 (3-0)
The Aztecs have an ugly loss to Washington State, but the defense has been elite with three shutouts already. A win over Boise State would make the nation take notice of their playoff hopes.
Remaining games: vs Wyoming, at Hawaii, vs Boise State, vs San Jose State, at New Mexico
