Only three teams fell out last weekend as Tennessee, Kansas State and UNLV were eliminated. 35 teams remain in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
Virginia 8-1 (5-0)
Virginia is in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship. Imagine reading that sentence back in August. Sure enough, Tony Elliott’s squad is undefeated in ACC play after handling business against Cal. The remaining schedule is against teams who are a combined 13-12, which gives them a great shot to finish 11-1 and secure a spot in the ACC Championship. Would an 11-2 season put them in? It depends how the rest of the season plays out.
Remaining games: vs Wake Forest, at Duke, vs Virginia Tech
Louisville 7-1 (4-1)
Louisville handled business against Virginia Tech this past weekend, but there are still a few possible trap games remaining. Even with Clemson sitting at 3-5, they are loaded with talent, and playing in Death Valley could easily result in a loss. SMU is another team fighting for a possible ACC Championship berth, and playing them on the road could be difficult. If Louisville wins out, they may miss the ACC Championship because of tiebreakers, but they could still make the playoff.
Remaining games: vs Cal, vs Clemson, at SMU, vs Kentucky
Work To Do
Pitt 7-2 (5-1)
Pitt has won five games in a row. They now face the toughest part of their schedule, with three top-20 teams to finish the season. Win out, and they are easily a top-10 team. Any loss likely puts them on the outside looking in. Notre Dame would not count against their conference record, making Georgia Tech and Miami that much more important.
Remaining games: vs Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, vs Miami
Miami FL 6-2 (2-2)
Would a 10-2 Miami make the playoff even without reaching the ACC Championship? That is the question for the next few weeks. NC State and Pitt are the two most likely upset candidates remaining on the schedule. If Miami wins out, their chances likely depend on what happens elsewhere — but their win over Notre Dame continues to look better each week.
Remaining games: vs Syracuse, vs NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt
Georgia Tech 8-1 (5-1)
Georgia Tech’s path to the College Football Playoff just got tougher. A loss to NC State puts them in a position where they must beat Boston College and Pitt to have a shot at the ACC Championship. The game against Georgia also becomes more important — if they beat Georgia, Brent Key’s squad can still make the playoff even without appearing in the ACC Championship.
Remaining games: at Boston College, vs Pitt, vs Georgia
Needs Some Help
SMU 6-3 (4-1)
SMU kept its hopes alive this past weekend by upsetting Miami. They should be able to handle Boston College, which puts the focus on Louisville. If SMU knocks them off, they could have a clear shot at the ACC Championship.
Remaining games: at Boston College, vs Louisville, at Cal
Duke 5-3 (4-1)
Duke has a long way to go to reach the ACC Championship, with Virginia the major roadblock. If they beat the Cavaliers, we can revisit their playoff chances.
Remaining games: at UConn, vs Virginia, at North Carolina, vs Wake Forest
Big 12
Serious Contender
BYU 8-0 (5-0)
BYU was off this past weekend. They start the stretch run with a trip to Lubbock. A road win at Texas Tech gives BYU a legitimate shot at an at-large playoff bid if they fail to win the Big 12. Last year, they began to fall apart in November. Can they hold together this time?
Remaining games: at Texas Tech, vs TCU, at Cincinnati, vs UCF
Texas Tech 8-1 (5-1)
Texas Tech should be heavy favorites against UCF and West Virginia. Hosting BYU is what this season comes down to. If they fail to beat BYU, their fate goes to chance. This weekend is huge for the Red Raiders.
Remaining games: vs BYU, vs UCF, at West Virginia
Work To Do
Utah 7-2 (4-2)
Utah keeps its hopes alive after handling Cincinnati. The problem remains: in tiebreakers, they lost to both BYU and Texas Tech. Their hopes remain alive, but where the committee ranks them could be crucial.
Remaining games: vs Cincinnati, at Baylor, vs Kansas State, at Kansas
Cincinnati 7-2 (5-1)
Cincinnati got smoked by Utah on the road last weekend. Luckily, it was only their first conference loss, but the path is now more difficult. None of their remaining games are easy, but if they win out, they’ll be in the Big 12 Championship.
Remaining games: vs Arizona, vs BYU, at TCU
Needs Some Help
Houston 7-2 (4-2)
Houston took a rough loss to West Virginia, eliminating any chance of an at-large bid. They still have a chance to reach the Big 12 Championship but must take care of business.
Remaining games: at UCF, vs TCU, at Baylor
TCU 6-2 (3-2)
TCU was off last weekend and watched chaos unfold around the conference. Their four remaining opponents are a combined 27-7, making a 4-0 finish unlikely — but it’s college football.
Remaining games: vs Iowa State, at BYU, at Houston, vs Cincinnati
Now Eliminated: Kansas State
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana 9-0 (6-0)
Indiana did Indiana things and beat Maryland. The Hoosiers remain one of the best teams in the country and should finish the regular season undefeated, locking in an automatic spot in the playoff.
Remaining games: at Penn State, vs Wisconsin, at Purdue
Ohio State 8-0 (5-0)
Ohio State took care of business against Penn State. They should cruise through every game until Michigan — then we’ll see if Ryan Day can get over the hump.
Remaining games: at Purdue, vs UCLA, vs Rutgers, at Michigan
Oregon 7-1 (4-0)
Oregon was off this past weekend. They begin their stretch run with a trip to Iowa in what screams “trap game.” USC and Washington will also be difficult.
Remaining games: at Iowa, vs Minnesota, vs USC, at Washington
Work To Do
Michigan 7-2 (5-1)
Michigan struggled with Purdue but ultimately survived. Two tricky road games remain, but the season comes down to beating Ohio State.
Remaining games: at Northwestern, at Maryland, vs Ohio State
Iowa 6-2 (4-1)
Iowa’s season is on the line this weekend. A win vs Oregon keeps both their Big Ten title and playoff hopes alive. A loss likely ends both.
Remaining games: vs Oregon, at USC, vs Michigan State, at Nebraska
USC 6-2 (4-1)
USC remains alive in the playoff chase. They face tough tests with Iowa visiting and a trip to Oregon coming soon. Their offense struggled against Nebraska, but a win is a win.
Remaining games: vs Northwestern, vs Iowa, at Oregon, vs UCLA
Needs Some Help
Washington 6-2 (3-2)
Washington does not have a direct path to the Big Ten Championship, but winning out could put them into the playoff mix. Losses came against Ohio State and Michigan, but a win over Oregon may boost their case enough.
Remaining games: at Wisconsin, vs Purdue, at UCLA, vs Oregon
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M 8-0 (5-0)
Texas A&M was off this past weekend. They have a strong chance to make the playoff with their manageable remaining schedule.
Remaining games: at Missouri, vs South Carolina, vs Samford, at Texas
Alabama 7-1 (5-0)
Alabama was off as well. They likely need to finish 3-1 to lock up a playoff spot.
Remaining games: vs LSU, vs Oklahoma, vs Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
Georgia 7-1 (5-1)
Georgia escaped Florida and remains in strong playoff position. A win over Texas or Georgia Tech would likely seal their fate.
Remaining games: at Mississippi State, vs Texas, vs Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss 8-1 (5-1)
Ole Miss should cruise to the playoff if they avoid upsets.
Remaining games: vs The Citadel, vs Florida, at Mississippi State
Work To Do
Texas 7-2 (4-1)
Texas took care of Vanderbilt last week. They must win out to make the playoff.
Remaining games: at Georgia, vs Arkansas, vs Texas A&M
Oklahoma 7-2 (3-2)
Oklahoma earned a much-needed win over Tennessee. Beating Alabama is a must — a third loss eliminates them.
Remaining games: at Alabama, vs Missouri, vs LSU
Missouri 6-2 (2-2)
Missouri is now down to its third-string quarterback and faces one of the best teams in the country. A win keeps hope alive; a loss ends it.
Remaining games: vs Texas A&M, vs Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, vs Arkansas
Vanderbilt 7-2 (4-2)
Vanderbilt’s season will likely come down to Tennessee.
Remaining games: vs Auburn, vs Kentucky, at Tennessee
Needs Some Help
None listed
Now Eliminated: Tennessee
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame 6-2
It wasn’t pretty, but Notre Dame got the win over Boston College. Navy and Pitt will determine their playoff fate.
Remaining games: vs Navy, at Pitt, vs Syracuse, at Stanford
Group of Five
Serious Contender
Memphis 7-1 (6-1)
Memphis is now firmly in the driver’s seat after Navy’s loss.
Remaining games: vs Tulane, at ECU, vs Navy
Work To Do
USF 6-2 (3-1)
USF likely needs to win the American Conference Championship and rely on résumé comparisons to break through.
Remaining games: vs UTSA, at Navy, at UAB, vs Rice
North Texas 7-1 (4-1)
North Texas earned a crucial win over Navy and has a manageable remaining schedule.
Remaining games: at UAB, at Rice, vs Temple
James Madison 7-1 (5-0)
James Madison must win out and win convincingly to remain in the discussion.
Remaining games: at Marshall, vs App State, vs Washington State, at Coastal Carolina
Navy 7-1 (5-1)
Navy needs a win against Notre Dame to strengthen its case.
Remaining games: at Notre Dame, vs USF, at Memphis
(Army remains but does not factor into the playoff)
Needs Some Help
San Diego State 7-1 (4-0)
San Diego State remains alive but needs help along the way. Beat Boise State first — then see what happens.
Remaining games: at Hawaii, vs Boise State, vs San Jose State, at New Mexico
Now Eliminated: UNLV
