Six teams fell out last weekend as Missouri, TCU, Iowa, Washington, Navy, and San Diego State were eliminated. 29 teams remain in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Virginia (8–2, 5–1)
Virginia’s loss to Wake Forest this past weekend set them back significantly in their hunt to make the College Football Playoff. A second loss means they now must win the ACC to have a chance. Any loss the rest of the way will knock them out of contention.
Remaining games: at Duke, vs. Virginia Tech
Pitt (7–2, 5–1)
Pitt is an intriguing case because if they win out and fail to make the ACC Championship, they may still have enough quality wins to earn a playoff spot. The glaring blemish is a loss to West Virginia, who is unlikely to make a bowl game. Pitt’s remaining schedule is challenging, but they’ll be rewarded if they win out.
Remaining games: vs. Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, vs. Miami
Miami (FL) (7–2, 3–2)
Miami faces an uphill battle to make the ACC Championship since both of their losses came in conference play. The rest of the ACC isn’t doing them any favors when it comes to quality wins. Their victory over Notre Dame continues to look better each week, but it may not be enough to reach the playoff without a conference title.
Remaining games: vs. NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt
Georgia Tech (8–1, 5–1)
Georgia Tech has two conference games remaining and is in good position to make the ACC Championship if they beat Boston College and Pitt. If the Yellow Jackets manage to upset Georgia, they might be able to make the playoff even without a conference championship.
Remaining games: at Boston College, vs. Pitt, vs. Georgia
Needs Some Help
Louisville (7–2, 4–2)
Louisville’s loss to Cal significantly hurt their playoff chances. They had a great path, especially with a win over Miami, but that second loss makes it much harder to get in. Beating Clemson and SMU won’t be easy.
Remaining games: vs. Clemson, at SMU, vs. Kentucky
SMU (7–3, 5–1)
SMU blew out Boston College this past weekend and is quietly turning its season around. Remaining games against Louisville and Cal give them a chance to finish the season ranked—especially if they win the ACC.
Remaining games: vs. Louisville, at Cal
Duke (5–4, 4–1)
Duke took a loss to UConn but somehow remains alive in the playoff race. Even if they win out, there’s no guarantee they’ll finish ranked. They’ll likely be competing with Group of Five teams for a final spot.
Remaining games: vs. Virginia, at North Carolina, vs. Wake Forest
Big 12
Serious Contender
Texas Tech (9–1, 6–1)
Texas Tech established itself as the Big 12’s clear leader with a dominant win over BYU. The Red Raiders’ remaining schedule is favorable, and their victory over BYU will help their case if they lose in the Big 12 Championship.
Remaining games: vs. UCF, at West Virginia
Work To Do
Utah (7–2, 4–2)
Utah is quietly climbing the rankings and positioning itself for a potential at-large playoff bid. Ranked 13th in the latest playoff poll, the Utes were off this past weekend. Two conference losses might keep them out of the Big 12 title game, but winning out could land them in the top 10.
Remaining games: at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas
Cincinnati (7–2, 5–1)
Cincinnati had a bye week after being dominated by Utah. The Bearcats face three opponents with winning records down the stretch. A 3–0 finish would significantly boost their playoff standing.
Remaining games: vs. Arizona, vs. BYU, at TCU
BYU (8–1, 5–1)
BYU’s loss to Texas Tech doesn’t eliminate them, but it will be interesting to see how far they drop in the rankings. They still control their destiny for the Big 12 title. If they avenge their loss to Texas Tech in the championship, the committee will likely forgive the first defeat.
Remaining games: vs. TCU, at Cincinnati, vs. UCF
Needs Some Help
Houston (8–2, 5–2)
Houston barely edged UCF and remains on playoff life support. A loss to West Virginia hurts their resume, but winning out—and potentially sneaking into the Big 12 Championship—could keep their hopes alive.
Remaining games: vs. TCU, at Baylor
Now Eliminated: TCU
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana (10–0, 7–0)
It went to the wire, but Indiana survived Penn State to stay undefeated. This appeared to be their final real test, putting them on track for their first Big Ten Championship appearance. Anything can happen, but the Hoosiers should be heavy favorites in their last two games.
Remaining games: vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue
Ohio State (9–0, 6–0)
Ohio State handled business on the road at Purdue. The Buckeyes should roll through UCLA and Rutgers at home before the showdown with Michigan. The question remains—can Ryan Day finally fix his Michigan problem?
Remaining games: vs. UCLA, vs. Rutgers, at Michigan
Oregon (8–1, 5–1)
Oregon needed all 60 minutes against Iowa, but Dante Moore delivered in crunch time to set up a game-winning field goal. The Ducks got the win despite missing key playmakers. They could afford one loss, but winning out locks in their playoff spot.
Remaining games: vs. Minnesota, vs. USC, at Washington
Work To Do
Michigan (7–2, 5–1)
Michigan had a bye week and now enters the stretch run. Northwestern and Maryland have struggled, which should give Michigan momentum before “The Game.” Beat Ohio State, and they’re in the playoff conversation.
Remaining games: at Northwestern, at Maryland, vs. Ohio State
USC (7–2, 5–1)
USC beat Northwestern and now faces a brutal closing stretch. Iowa’s defense will test them, and then they must travel to Eugene to play Oregon. Any loss will end their playoff hopes.
Remaining games: vs. Iowa, at Oregon, vs. UCLA
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: Iowa, Washington
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M (9–0, 6–0)
Texas A&M handled Missouri and now has a clear path to the playoff. Wins over South Carolina and Samford should set up an undefeated showdown with Texas. Even with one loss, the Aggies would still be firmly in the playoff mix.
Remaining games: vs. South Carolina, vs. Samford, at Texas
Alabama (8–1, 6–0)
Alabama beat LSU in ugly fashion, but a win is a win. Next up is Oklahoma, a golden opportunity to cement their playoff spot. Wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee bolster their resume enough to withstand a late-season slip.
Remaining games: vs. Oklahoma, vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
Georgia (8–1, 6–1)
Georgia rebounded to dominate Mississippi State. Wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss strengthen their case, and a victory against Texas would add another top-tier win.
Remaining games: vs. Texas, vs. Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (9–1, 6–1)
Ole Miss has one of the easier remaining schedules and looks playoff-bound. Florida and Mississippi State are reeling, and the Rebels’ offense should roll. The real question is whether they’ll earn a bye or host a playoff game.
Remaining games: vs. Florida, at Mississippi State
Work To Do
Texas (7–2, 4–1)
Texas faces one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. They must win out to have any playoff chance. Georgia and Texas A&M will be massive challenges, and Arkansas could be a trap.
Remaining games: at Georgia, vs. Arkansas, vs. Texas A&M
Oklahoma (7–2, 3–2)
Oklahoma’s season hangs in the balance this weekend. Beat Alabama, and they’re right back in contention. Lose, and it’s over. Missouri and LSU no longer look daunting, but only perfection keeps them alive.
Remaining games: at Alabama, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU
Vanderbilt (8–2, 4–2)
Vanderbilt survived Auburn in overtime to stay alive. Diego Pavia continues to shine, and if the Commodores win out, they’ll be a dark horse playoff contender.
Remaining games: vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: Missouri
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame (6–2)
Notre Dame took care of business against Navy. The Midshipmen hung around early, but the Irish exploded for 28 unanswered in the second half. With continued chaos across college football, Notre Dame’s playoff chances are increasing weekly.
Remaining games: at Pitt, vs. Syracuse, at Stanford
Group of Five
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
USF (7–2, 4–1)
USF’s playoff chances improved with Memphis’ loss to Tulane. The Bulls beat North Texas earlier this season and may need to do so again in the conference title game. Their inconsistency remains a concern, but their ceiling is high.
Remaining games: at Navy, at UAB, vs. Rice
North Texas (8–1, 4–1)
North Texas should make its conference title game, ideally with a rematch against USF. Avenging that earlier loss could strengthen their case for an at-large playoff spot.
Remaining games: at UAB, at Rice, vs. Temple
James Madison (8–1, 6–0)
The Sun Belt’s lone playoff hopeful survived Marshall and remains perfect in conference play. They must win out to stay in contention—any loss ends the dream.
Remaining games: vs. Appalachian State, vs. Washington State, at Coastal Carolina
Needs Some Help
Memphis (8–2, 4–2)
Memphis was in the driver’s seat but now needs a lot to break their way. They must win out and hope for help to reach the conference title game.
Remaining games: vs. Tulane, at ECU, vs. Navy
Now Eliminated: Navy, San Diego State
