So the best bet stayed red hot, but it came with a sweat. But the more important change was that it wasn’t served up with a bunch of losers! 4-1 and up overall on the season went Week 10. The best bet UGA-UF under was a sweat, but the game ended completely appropriately for both the total and side with Gunner Stockton taking a knee at the one to also preserve the Gator cover which was the right side all afternoon long, like the under. Elsewhere I got the loser out of the way early with lame duck Rutgers, sweeping the rest with Duke, SJSU and USC-Neb under. 4-1 (+3.9 units). Now for an encore. Half the board requires you to read the tea leaves on what type of response a coach’s firing is going to provoke, so I’ll try to put some method to that madness. With the first CFP rankings out, there’s probably a team ready to fall off a cliff whose initial ranking will seem impossible, who might that be? If SEC unders ain’t fix what? 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!

Bet 1: Iowa +200 moneyline vs Oregon (2:30pm CT Sat 11/8, CBS; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)

I’m of two minds on the questioning of Oregon since their signature win at Penn State’s white out has eroded so much in value. It was an intimidating atmosphere and gutty win, yes. But PSU was much worse than last year’s team all along. Without Tyler Warren, they were never going to really threaten the top of the B1G. Then most recently UO plays a drab 21-7 game against inept Wisconsin in a monsoon, and naturally the questions only pick up. 2-1 odds for a Hawkeye team that’s looked better than any of their smoke and mirrors no offense crap of recent years? Sign me up. The spread is less than a TD, I’d rather take the chance on the outright than losing by a hook in an OT game, or something similar.

Bet 2: LSU +10.5 (-115) at Alabama (6:30pm CT Sat 11/8, ABC)

The “we don’t like him” stories on Brian Kelly are numerous, and they’re grounded in truth. There’s virtually no way the team’s spirit isn’t vastly improved in their first game under interim Frank Wilson (whose prior HC experience at UTSA could matter). Whether that’s enough to stay close the full 60 in big bad Bryant Denny is another matter. I have faith in LSU in large part because DC Blake Baker is still there. That guy’s a stud and is going to be dead set on setting his work apart from the overall Kelly experiment. LSU is coming in with good enough players, coaches and emotion to make this a game.

Bet 3: Kentucky +3.5 (-125) vs Florida (6:30pm CT Sat 11/8, SECN)

Juiced to the max, probably for a reason. Kentucky knocked Hugh Freeze out of a job last week, so maybe a let down that the UF administration has deprived them of the opportunity at two in a row. But this still tracks as a very ugly low scoring game. Florida definitely has the higher ceiling, but this trip to Lexington is packed neatly between the big Georgia game (which they played well in) and a trip to CFP-ranked Ole Miss, it’s a complete lull spot. Stoops just ended an 11-game SEC losing streak at Auburn, to turn around and not play well at home against a totally beatable Florida squad would be criminal.

Bet 4: UCLA +1.5 (-120) vs Nebraska (8:00pm CT Sat 11/8, FOX)

I’m taking the point and a half juiced instead of -105 ML entirely on the possibility of UCLA (honestly, either team) going for two and the win following a late TD. The spread stinks in a way that makes UCLA look too good to be true, but I’m buying regardless. Nebraska is rolling in with backup QB TJ Lateef, an Orange County prep product himself. He will no doubt look better than what we saw when thrust in against USC, but that’s a very low bar. UCLA is at home off a bye, so underdog to a freshman backup QB in the new and vastly improved Tim Skipper portion of the season seems off. The Husker defense might have some schemes up for Nico, but they haven’t been stopping the run for several games now. The overall picture doesn’t scream “travels well” to me.

Best Bet (2 units): Texas A&M at Mizzou under 48.5 (-105) (2:30pm CT Sat 11/8, ABC)

Pressing my luck on the afternoon game delivering another low scoring affair. One could read this as an easy win for an Aggie team that is just stacking wins, and now gets the break of facing a backup/third-string QB in a hostile road spot. But life in this SEC is going to catch up to you eventually, and Mizzou is going to have some curveballs up their sleeve to try and rally their season. Both teams should be conservative with the ball, knowing turnovers are the most likely deciding factor. Drinkwitz should be looking back at the Bama game regretting Ahmad Hardy didn’t get more touches, no way he lets that repeat itself. Plenty of running and punts to look forward to.

Good luck! Week 10: 4-1 (+3.9 units); Season: 24-26 (+2.6 units)