Five teams were eliminated last weekend, and five new teams entered the mix. As a result, 29 teams remain alive in the College Football Playoff hunt.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Virginia (9–2, 6–1)
Virginia took care of business against Duke on Saturday and now just needs to beat Virginia Tech to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship. Virginia is off this week and gets an extra week to prepare, and they also have the Hokies at home. Virginia will need to win the ACC in order to make the playoff.
Remaining games: vs. Virginia Tech
Miami (FL) (8–2, 4–2)
Miami is the only ACC team remaining that might be able to make the playoff without winning the ACC. The Hurricanes were 15th in the playoff rankings last week and continue to win. They dominated NC State and now face Virginia Tech. A 10–2 Miami team will be an interesting case considering they have a win over Notre Dame, which looks better each week.
Remaining games: at Virginia Tech, at Pitt
Georgia Tech (9–1, 6–1)
Georgia Tech allowed Boston College to stay in the game much longer than expected, but all that matters is that they won. A win over Pitt puts them in the ACC Championship. A win over Georgia could give them a shot to make the playoff without winning the ACC, but that is not a chance the Yellow Jackets would like to take.
Remaining games: vs. Pitt, vs. Georgia
Needs Some Help
Pitt (7–3, 5–1)
Pitt was dominated by Notre Dame, but as Pat Narduzzi said, the game does not matter. In terms of the ACC Championship race, it was not a factor. Pitt needs help because they would fall behind SMU and Virginia in a tiebreaker scenario.
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech, vs. Miami
SMU (7–3, 5–1)
SMU was off this past weekend and will now face Louisville, a team coming off a devastating loss that removed them from playoff consideration. SMU is still alive in the ACC hunt but needs either Georgia Tech or Virginia to lose a conference game while the Mustangs win out.
Remaining games: vs. Louisville, at Cal
Now Eliminated: Duke, Louisville
Big 12
Serious Contender
Texas Tech (10–1, 7–1)
Texas Tech continues to cruise, and Jacob Rodriguez looks like one of the best players in the country regardless of position. The Red Raiders simply need to beat West Virginia to make the Big 12 Championship. Would Texas Tech still make the playoff if they lose the Big 12 title game? Probably, but it depends on how the rest of the season plays out.
Remaining games: at West Virginia
Work To Do
Utah (8–2, 5–2)
Utah dominated Baylor and kept its playoff hopes alive. Utah should be favored in its last two games, but if Texas Tech and BYU win out, the Utes will miss the Big 12 title game. The committee ranked them 13th, which might be high enough for them to slide into the playoff even without making the conference championship.
Remaining games: vs. Kansas State, at Kansas
BYU (9–1, 6–1)
BYU took care of TCU and now has its eyes on Cincinnati, its toughest remaining opponent. If BYU wins out, they will get a second chance at Texas Tech. A second loss to Texas Tech would create a complicated scenario.
Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. UCF
Needs Some Help
(Added) Arizona State (7–3, 5–2)
After Sam Leavitt went down, it seemed like Arizona State was finished, but Jeff Sims has kept the Sun Devils alive. Their most direct path requires losses by BYU and Utah. They should breeze past Colorado, leaving a rivalry game with Arizona left in the fold.
Remaining games: at Colorado, vs. Arizona
Houston (8–2, 5–2)
Houston is 8–2 but was not ranked by the committee. They likely need to appear in the rankings this week to have even a remote at-large chance. Realistically, their best path is through chaos in the Big 12 and making the conference championship game. They need losses by Arizona State, Utah, and BYU, which seems unlikely, but they are not out yet.
Remaining games: vs. TCU, at Baylor
Cincinnati (7–3, 5–2)
Cincinnati has an even tougher path than Houston. The Bearcats cannot worry about anyone else. They must beat BYU first, then reevaluate whether a path still exists.
Remaining games: vs. BYU, at TCU
Now Eliminated: None
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana (11–0, 8–0)
If there were a category for Locks, Indiana would be in it. They have one remaining game and are all but certain to make the Big Ten Championship. Indiana is off this weekend before playing Purdue. Get ready to see the Hoosiers in the playoff for the second straight year.
Remaining games: at Purdue
Ohio State (10–0, 7–0)
Ohio State defeated UCLA and is now one game closer to the rivalry game against Michigan. Assuming they beat Rutgers, Ohio State will make the playoff even if they lose to Michigan. They are another virtual lock.
Remaining games: vs. Rutgers, at Michigan
Oregon (9–1, 6–1)
Oregon looked good against Minnesota and now faces two difficult teams in USC and Washington. Oregon can probably lose one of the two and make the playoff. Losing both would eliminate them. Defeating USC would also eliminate the Trojans.
Remaining games: vs. USC, at Washington
Work To Do
Michigan (8–2, 6–1)
Michigan continues to flirt with danger. Five turnovers against Northwestern put them on the ropes, but a walk-off field goal kept them alive in the playoff race. Maryland is up next before the yearly showdown with Ohio State.
Remaining games: at Maryland, vs. Ohio State
USC (8–2, 6–1)
It was not pretty, but USC beat Iowa in a messy game. Survive and advance is the theme for USC. Their season comes down to beating Oregon this weekend, then seeing what UCLA has in store. Traveling to Eugene and winning is never easy.
Remaining games: at Oregon, vs. UCLA
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: None
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M (10–0, 7–0)
Texas A&M was on the verge of embarrassment after trailing South Carolina by four touchdowns at halftime, but Marcel Reed and company stormed back to win and remain undefeated. The Aggies have essentially secured their playoff spot with Samford next week. A loss to Texas would not eliminate them.
Remaining games: vs. Samford, at Texas
Georgia (9–1, 7–1)
Georgia added another quality win by beating Texas, nearly securing a playoff spot. Even a loss to Georgia Tech would not knock them out, and in the worst-case scenario, they could still get in even if they lose the SEC Championship, assuming they make it.
Remaining games: vs. Charlotte, at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (10–1, 6–1)
Ole Miss played it close but pulled out the win against Florida. They have only one game remaining, the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss should make the playoff no matter the outcome. It is hard to imagine a 10–2 SEC team being left out.
Remaining games: at Mississippi State
Work To Do
Oklahoma (8–2, 4–2)
Oklahoma was on the outside looking in, but now they are firmly in the playoff race. They still have tricky games remaining and have no real shot at the SEC Championship, but if they win out, they are in the playoff. Any loss eliminates them.
Remaining games: vs. Missouri, vs. LSU
Alabama (8–2, 6–1)
Alabama took a loss to Oklahoma, but it was their first SEC loss. They are in a strange position where if they win out, they will likely play in the SEC Championship. A loss to Auburn likely eliminates them. A loss in the SEC Championship probably keeps them in.
Remaining games: vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
Vanderbilt (8–2, 4–2)
Vanderbilt was off this past weekend and continues to hang around in the playoff hunt. They should take care of Kentucky, leaving a rivalry game with Tennessee to end the year. Win both, and Vanderbilt will be in position to make the playoff.
Remaining games: vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: Texas
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame (8–2)
Notre Dame throttled Pitt and continues to look like one of the best teams in college football. The remaining schedule is easy, with Syracuse and Stanford both being subpar teams. If Notre Dame wins out, they will make the playoff.
Remaining games: vs. Syracuse, at Stanford
Group of Five
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
North Texas (9–1, 5–1)
North Texas made it look easy against UAB. The Mean Green have just one loss, but they could be left out if ECU, Tulane, and Navy all win out, creating a four-way tie.
Remaining games: at Rice, vs. Temple
James Madison (9–1, 7–0)
James Madison looks better and better as chaos continues in the American. They face a tough test with Washington State this weekend. Winning out is essential because any loss eliminates them.
Remaining games: vs. Washington State, at Coastal Carolina
(Added) Navy (8–2, 6–1)
Navy defeated USF and is now back in contention. They have only one remaining game on their schedule, against Memphis. The Army game does not factor into playoff consideration.
Remaining games: at Memphis
Needs Some Help
(Added) ECU (7–3, 5–1)
ECU beat Memphis and is tied atop the American. Tiebreakers could send them to the conference championship game, and a win there could put them ahead of other Group of Five champions. They likely need James Madison and possibly San Diego State to lose.
Remaining games: at UTSA, at FAU
(Added) Tulane (8–2, 5–1)
It felt like Tulane was finished, but they are tied atop the American once again. Winning the conference would put them in an interesting debate against James Madison.
Remaining games: at Temple, vs. Charlotte
(Added) San Diego State (8–2, 5–1)
San Diego State sits atop the Mountain West after beating Boise State. Their best scenario is Hawaii getting the second championship spot so SDSU can avenge its lone conference loss. They do not have a direct path, but there is still hope.
Remaining games: vs. San Jose State, at New Mexico
Now Eliminated: USF, Memphis
