Championship week arrives with real stakes. Eight teams are out, 17 teams are still fighting, and the path to the first 12-team playoff is as wild as ever.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Virginia (10–2, 6–1)
Virginia took care of business against Virginia Tech and now is in a “Win and you’re in” scenario as they head to the ACC Championship. One of the most unlikely playoff candidates heading into the season controls their own destiny, but a loss and they are done.
Remaining games: vs. Duke
Needs Some Help
(Added) Duke (7–5, 6–2)
I think Duke might need some help if they win the ACC. I think the committee might rank James Madison this week. The winner from the American is getting into the playoff. Can James Madison stay ahead of an 8–5 Duke team? Maybe.
Remaining games: vs Virginia
Miami (FL) (10–2, 6–2)
I’m not sure where the committee will rank Miami on Tuesday night. In all likelihood, Miami’s chances are gone, but in the off chance they are pushing toward the top 10, they might have a shot.
Remaining games: None
Now Eliminated: SMU, Pitt
Big 12
Serious Contender
Texas Tech (11–1, 8–1)
I think Texas Tech is in no matter what happens in the Big 12 Championship Game. They are likely to be one of the top 4 teams in the country. They already beat BYU. Their only loss was without their starting quarterback. Texas Tech should be in no matter the outcome.
Remaining games: vs BYU
Work To Do
BYU (11–1, 8–1)
BYU needs to win Saturday in order to make the playoff. They already lost to Texas Tech once. Should an 11–1 team make the playoff from a Power 4 conference? Yes. But it’s apparent the committee does not view it the same way. I think a loss will keep them out of the playoff.
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech
Needs Some Help
Now Eliminated: Arizona State, Utah
Utah was sitting at 13 behind Miami. With limited spots remaining, Utah is unlikely to jump Miami, while Vanderbilt and Texas might jump Utah with bigger wins.
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana (12–0, 9–0)
Indiana is in the playoffs. They dominated Purdue on Friday and now will play for a Big Ten Championship for the first time in the program’s history. The Hoosiers are likely to get a bye no matter the result of the game.
Remaining games: vs Ohio State
Ohio State (12–0, 9–0)
Ohio State beat Michigan for the first time since 2019 and now will head to Indianapolis to face Indiana. Ohio State is also likely to have a bye no matter the outcome of the game.
Remaining games: vs Indiana
Oregon (11–1, 7–1)
Oregon’s season is complete, finishing 11–1. They were 6th in the playoff rankings last week and are likely to host a playoff game. The atmosphere in Autzen is going to be electric.
Remaining games: None
Work To Do
None
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: Michigan
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M (11–1, 7–1)
Texas A&M lost to Texas, but they will still be in the playoffs. Instead of a bye, they will likely host a playoff game. A bye is good, but a home playoff game is something people dream about. The loss stings, but a playoff game in College Station will go crazy.
Remaining games: None
Georgia (11–1, 7–1)
Georgia will play Alabama for the SEC Championship. If Georgia wins, they likely get a first-round bye. If they lose, they might be hosting a playoff game. I can’t see a scenario where they start on the road.
Remaining games: vs Alabama
Ole Miss (11–1, 7–1)
I think Ole Miss is in, but this Lane Kiffin disaster might open the committee up to dropping them. I am expecting Ole Miss to be ranked around 8 or 9. The committee has said coaching changes would factor into decisions, and no Lane Kiffin might drop them, but Ole Miss should still be in.
Remaining games: None
Oklahoma (10–2, 6–2)
Oklahoma was ranked 8th in the playoff rankings last week. They needed all 60 minutes to beat LSU, but they won. Oklahoma will be in the College Football Playoffs. The question for them is whether they will host or be on the road.
Remaining games: None
Work To Do
Alabama (10–2, 7–1)
I have no idea what the committee is going to do with Alabama if they win or lose. A win and I think they will host a playoff game. If they lose, could the committee drop them to 11? Would that result in the Crimson Tide missing the playoff? I have no idea, but the surefire way to make sure they are in is by winning this weekend.
Remaining games: vs Georgia
Needs Some Help
Now Eliminated: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is unlikely to make the playoffs. They would need to be ranked ahead of Miami on Tuesday, and right now I do not think the committee will do so.
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame (10–2)
I think Notre Dame is in the playoffs. Their schedule is bad though. Their best win is probably USC, who finished 9–3. After USC, it’s either Navy or Pitt. They have dominated in all their wins. Notre Dame is probably in, but I’m expecting some debates over the next week.
Remaining games: None
Group of Five
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Tulane (10–2, 7–1)
Tulane is heading to the American Championship where they will face off against North Texas. As of right now, it is unclear if Jon Sumrall will coach Tulane this upcoming weekend and the playoffs, should they win. Tulane is ranked, so a win would put them in the playoffs.
Remaining games: vs. North Texas
Update: Sumrall will coach in the conference championship and playoffs, should they make it.
North Texas (11–1, 7–1)
North Texas also saw their coach accept a new job, as Eric Morris accepted the head coach position at Oklahoma State. North Texas is allowing him to stay and coach, which is huge for their chances. A win for North Texas will put them in the playoffs.
Remaining games: vs. Tulane
Needs Some Help
James Madison (11–1, 8–0)
James Madison still has a shot to make the playoffs, but they probably need Duke to win the ACC. James Madison is a heavy favorite against Troy. James Madison should be encouraged if they are ranked on Tuesday by the committee.
Remaining games: vs Troy
Now Eliminated: San Diego State, Navy
In a true chaos scenario, UNLV has an outside chance to make the playoff. They would need Virginia and James Madison to lose.
