Predicting the G5 Futures: Sun Belt

Unless you are a UL Monroe fan, this conference is hella fun.

That was an unnecessary shot at the Warhawks. But the past few years have been a struggle at the alma mater of Tim Brando. But thanks to new coach Bryant Vincent and quarterback General Booty, their helmets may not be the most interesting thing about them this year. But beyond them, there are 13 teams that all think they have a chance to win their division. And they are right, it is that wide open.

In the Sun Belt East, significant changes at James Madison (head coach Curt Cignetti leaving for Indiana and taking half his team with him), Georgia St. (head coach Shawn Elliott leaving for a coordinator position at South Carolina and quarterback Darren Grainger out of eligibility) and Coastal Carolina (the transfer of Grayson McCall) have opened the door for teams like Marshall and Georgia Southern to potentially move up the conference pecking order.

Appalachian St. is considered the prohibitive favorite thanks to the stability that a returning quarterback (Joey Aguilar) and defense that returns its entire Front 7 can provide. And don’t forget about Old Dominion, a bowl team last year who returns All-American linebacker Jason Henderson and starting quarterback Grant Wilson. They tend not to get the respect they deserve but if they can find some skill players to step up and navigate a tough non-conference schedule, they can get back to a bowl game.

The West is equally interesting. I’ll wax poetic about Texas St. later, but they are considered the overwhelming favorite in that division based on expected down seasons by Troy and South Alabama. Arkansas St., Louisiana and even Southern Miss could make a move towards the top half of the division, and the aforementioned Trojans and Jaguars aren’t going away. All that to say, this is a wide open conference where almost anything can happen.

That really does include you, UL Monroe.

So from a gambling perspective, that does make this a difficult conference to prognosticate. “Fun” does not always translate to “consistent” which is part of what you are looking for if you are wanting to make money. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at 3 Over/Under lines that I would comfortably take a swing at. If you have thoughts, hit me up on the socials. (@walkonredshirts, @justincripe)

By the way, Your Boy was Plus Money last year in this conference. Used it to pay for my ESPN+ subscription, not a big deal.

As a reminder, here are a couple rules for these picks:


Texas St. Over 8.5 Wins (+120 on ESPN BET)

If things break right, there is a world where this team goes undefeated.

Is that hyperbole? Maybe a little bit. But this is absolutely a growing powerhouse in the Group of 5. From a skill position perspective, their roster legitimately stacks up well with some teams in the Big XII.

Start at quarterback with Jordan McCloud. Sun Belt Nation last saw him as the conductor of a James Madison offense that has taken the conference by storm the past two years. There is no reason to believe he can’t do the same here with arguably better skill position depth. Texas St. has receivers Joey Hobert and Kole Wilson returning, who together combined for 142 catches. Hobert is likely the standout who can expect the majority of all-conference consideration, but both are legitimate threats. The same can be said at running back, where 1,331-yard back Ismail Mahdi returns. He’s not likely to duplicate that production because of the depth Texas St. brought in in the form of UTEP backs Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr. There are weapons galore.

Defensively, the Bobcats are no slouch on this side of the ball either. Defensive End Ben Bell could challenge Henderson for Conference POY and more transfers were brought in to help upgrade the talent. This is where it could get dicey, but this team can handle shootouts.

So what makes me think that undefeated is possible? Let’s take a look at their schedule. Well for starters, none of their non-conference games are on an opposing team’s campus. They host Lamar, UTSA and Arizona St. then take on Sam Houston St. at NRG Stadium in Houston. Those middle two games will certainly be tough, but they are at home. The conference slate begins and ends with tough road slates at Troy and concluding at South Alabama, but this is the year for those to be on the road. In between is Arkansas St., at Old Dominion, Louisiana, at UL Monroe, Southern Miss and Georgia St. both at home. Not a ton of meat on those bones.

If it all comes together it could be a magical season that ends with a CFP birth, but they do need to be more consistent. Last year they opened up the season beating Big XII opponent Baylor but had 77 hung on them at the end of the season by Arkansas St. A dud is possible somewhere along the way, but 9 wins is more than reasonable.

Marshall Over 6 Wins (+105 on Draftkings)

I had to do some shopping on this one, as the other books have the number at 5.5, but I’ll take my chances that this is a bowl team.

First things first, as far as the East goes, I think it is a three-horse race between App St., JMU and Marshall. I happen to think that JMU is still the best team despite all the turnover, but this time is right there. The key is at quarterback. I was never a big fan of Cam Fancher, so whoever wins the battle at the position between incumbent Cole Pennington or Tulsa transfer Braylon Braxton brings an upgrade at the position, provided they can take care of the ball. I also love the fit of Jordan Houston at running back. The former NC State star is a perfect replacement for all-everything Rasheen Ali. There need to be playmakers to step up at receiver, but under Mike Leach disciple Seth Doege, catches will be made.

There are some questions on defense as well, but this might be the year in the East to cover up deficiencies on that side of the ball. I don’t know if teams like Georgia Southern, Georgia St. and Coastal Carolina will be as equipped to take advantage of that as they would have been in years past.

Looking at the schedule, a starting slate off Stony Brook followed by roadies at Virginia Tech and Ohio St. all but guarantee a 1-2 start. But things get significantly easier after that with 4 of their next 5 games at home. Home games against Western Michigan, App St., Georgia St. and UL Monroe are interrupted by a game at Georgia Southern. That gives the Thundering Herd a huge opportunity to collect wins. The closing stretch of at Southern Miss, Coastal at home, at ODU and at JMU aren’t overwhelming either. The finale will obviously be tough and may determine the division title, but for the purposes of this exercise, I think they will be at 7 wins by then and over the expected win total.

Louisiana Under 7.5 Wins (+110 on FanDuel and DraftKings)

Vegas knows that best offensive player off a 6-7 team transferred out right?

Ever since the Billy Napier/Levi Lewis era, Louisiana has been see-sawing between Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge at quarterback, with neither being able to seize the position. It was about a year and a half of that before freshman Zeon Chriss came in and turned the offense around. Chriss took his talents to the Big XII, ending up in Houston. His replacements? Fields and Wooldridge.

What are we doing here?

Look, I think Louisiana is going to be ok. I like their defense a lot. But the offense has no consistent leadership. Is that not important? The line of 7.5 feels like a result of what Vegas feels is a wide open Sun Belt West. But as you saw above, I happen to think that Texas St. runs away with it. And these two play in San Marcos. The Ragin Cajun home slate has games against Grambling, Tulane, App St., Arkansas St., South Alabama and Troy. There are enough swing games that they could lose a couple. The rest of their road schedule includes at Kennesaw St., Wake Forest, Southern Miss (back to back), Coastal Carolina and UL Monroe. Certainly no killers, but I just haven’t seen enough from Louisiana to see that they can win 8 games.

Predicted Order of Finish:

Sun Belt East

  1. James Madison
  2. Appalachian St.
  3. Marshall
  4. Coastal Carolina
  5. Georgia Southern
  6. Old Dominion
  7. Georgia St.

Sun Belt West

  1. Texas St.
  2. Arkansas St.
  3. Louisiana
  4. South Alabama
  5. Troy
  6. Southern Miss
  7. UL Monroe

Leave a Reply