Things were going too well. I knew it. Week 11 was the quick backlash to Week 10 and running success. 4-1 was flipped to 1-4, and worst of all the best bet wasn’t spared (8-1 run ends). Despite the record, the picks weren’t that off last week. I was too greedy with Iowa thinking the Kinnick mojo would be too strong for the exact game-winning drive Moore and the Ducks pulled off. LSU only failed to cover by the hook, and they didn’t even score a touchdown. And finally the A&M-Mizzou under was in great shape for more than 3 quarters until wild runs broke out for three TD’s in the last 8 minutes. The Kentucky win and UCLA loss round it out for 1-4 (-4.45 units). The schedule improves this week with the far fewer teams on byes. The CFP angles are adding up, with the ACC in particular starting to get antsy (which is bound to happen when your two most recent national champs who won 3 title in a 6-year span are 4-9 in conference, and not pointed towards improvement). I’m leaning into the ACC and away from the B1G this week after an all B1G/SEC week did me in. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!

Bet 1: Pitt +12.5 (-115) vs Notre Dame (11:00am CT Sat 11/15, ABC; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)

No moneyline greed here. A coach’s public comments are a terrible way to read a game, and Narduzzi’s comments about it not impacting the ACC standings aren’t my motivation one way or another. But it’s pretty easy to see through them as trying to infect the ND roster’s minds. Of course Pitt is at maximum motivation level. Every ND opponent is. Think about how much worse an ACC loss next week at Georgia Tech will look and feel like if it comes after a game in which you appeared to be holding back? Whereas if you show all the fight in the world at home vs ND, the second loss will hurt in the standings, but you never once gave anything but your best. The idea ND is any more invested in this game is total nonsense. The Boston College struggle made a dent to ND’s inevitability in a spot like this.

Bet 2: NC State +14.5 at Miami (2:30pm CT Sat 11/15, ESPN)

Miami hasn’t beaten the Wolfpack by more than 14 points since joining the ACC. You have to go back to the Butch Davis era to get a margin that large. While NC State isn’t great, they’re improving and off a bye. Cristobal is so prone to large letdowns, maybe the +475 ML should warrant a look, but I’ll let the outright just be icing on the cake. Off a major convincing home upset of Georgia Tech, you get a bye, then the chance to do it again on the road? 14.5 looks excessive to me. CJ Bailey should show major growth from the ND game and play well as Miami comes in with all the pressure.

Bet 3: Mississippi State +210 moneyline at Mizzou (6:45pm CT Sat 11/15, SECN)

Back to the SEC Network night game. MSU is quietly one of the most improved teams in the SEC, even nationally. Missouri, not so much. QB1 Beau Pribula is currently listed as doubtful, but if he does go, limitations would really hurt someone who relies on their mobility. Mizzou went from undefeated in a rock fight with Alabama to losing 3 of 4 with the only win in OT against Auburn. I’d buy Drinkwitz rallying the troops for a stand if the QB picture were better, but not as is. The Bulldog rushing defense has inspired money on Mizzou, but I think the Tigers are one-dimensional enough for focus and commitment to bear fruit.

Bet 4: BYU -3.5 (+100) vs TCU (9:15pm CT Sat 11/15, ESPN)

BYU can’t shake their doubters, and the Texas Tech game only emboldened them. But I’m not convinced they’re not ready to march toward a rematch. It starts at home against TCU. Considering the turnover margin, things could’ve been a lot uglier in Lubbock. Look for BYU’s defense to step up with plays that get the crowd involved and the atmosphere at their back. This is TCU’s first game against a ranked team. On the subject of unproven, you’re looking at it. Their road wins are at UNC and WVU. BYU is much more firmly in the category of KSU, who beat TCU by 13 in Manhattan. BYU gets right at home.

Best Bet (2 units): Washington State -8.5 vs Louisiana Tech (9:00pm CT Sat 11/15, CW)

Late to the party since it opened at 6.5, but this reads as a strong home performance from Wazzu. Oregon St suffered a nightmare loss after beating the Cougs in the first of their 2 matchups, which put Wazzu on notice during their bye last week. Wazzu will finish 0-3 against the P4, but pushing both UVA and Ole Miss on the road is part of that. After LT they get a shot at CFP dark horse James Madison, and home revenge against OSU. They are not overlooking their CUSA visitor. It all starts here. Cross-country, late kick, just start fast and don’t look back on the Palouse.

Good luck! Week 11: 1-4 (-4.45 units); Season: 25-30 (-1.85 units)