Things are coming into place midseason, just as I hoped. The best bet has been a point of pride batting 5 for its last 6 without a single one possession sweat among them. The only loss was Penn St at home against Oregon, and everyone can now agree that PSU was not what anyone thought it would be at their halfway mark. Week 7 was a solid 3-2, losing Stanford-SMU over and Mizzou early, then sweeping Maryland, Clemson and BB Utah (+1.95 units). Plenty of conference games on the slate, 5 winners just waiting for their blessing. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!

Bet 1: Tulane -9.5 (-115) vs Army (11:00am CT Sat 10/18, ESPNU; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)

I see a pretty clear cleavage between the 3 legitimate American (we can’t even abbreviate AAC anymore if I’m understanding things right) CFP contenders of Memphis, South Florida, and Tulane, and the rest of the pack. 9.5 vs a military academy that might bleed the clock is a little annoying, but Sumrall will not let them come out flat after a sloppy win against ECU. “CFP” shouldn’t be in your vocabulary if you’re struggling the slightest bit with a crummy Army team at home with a couple extra days of rest. Tee off Green Wave.

Bet 2: Northwestern -3.5 (+105) vs Purdue (2:00pm CT Sat 10/18, BTN)

There’s a totally perverse take on this game that I saw from Brett McMurphy, among others. This is not a letdown spot for NU. Not that it stopped UCLA from building on their upset of PSU, but this last week was not that. The entire focus was on Franklin’s firing. There was virtually no national media praise for NU beyond just naming them as the opponent. Now they’re so in love with themselves they fail to focus on their most winnable remaining game. What? If you think Purdue is going to cover/win, the only reason can be because you think they have significantly better players. It is not, going to be a motivation or focus edge. In reality, it’s Purdue that shows more signs of a letdown after blowing what should’ve snapped the conference losing streak at Minnesota, and now have to get back up for a brand that doesn’t naturally fire up opponents. Prepare yourself for both UCLA and NU getting to 3-1 in B1G play.

Bet 3: Ole Miss +7.5 (-120) at Georgia (2:30pm CT Sat 10/18, ABC)

Ole Miss was caught looking ahead against Wazzu, but don’t let that distract from what they’re building. Plugging in a D2 standout and competing at the top of the sport, there is no confidence lacking with the Rebs. I think UGA is still paying a tax in terms of expectations because of how loaded and dominant they were 3-4 years ago. The current squads are just so much more vulnerable on a weekly basis, their record ATS has been consistently bad enough to see more of the same with Ole Miss being vulnerable in a close game, but not overmatched.

Bet 4: Rutgers +17.5 (-105) vs Oregon (5:30pm CT Sat 10/18, BTN)

Going cross-country on the heels of a draining loss is not the ideal intro to having to cover 17.5, against a team with a pretty darn good offense. Schiano is going to empty his barrel of gimmicks and tricks to try and make this a 4th quarter game. Oregon could score 50, and still not cover. Everything went perfectly for Oregon in B1G games, until IU said “enough of this.” There’s decent chance for a really aberrant result here. Rutgers ML at +700 or more should warrant consideration.

Best Bet (2 units): Ohio State -25.5 at Wisconsin (2:30pm CT Sat 10/18, CBS)

This is a terrible mismatch. I don’t know why anyone in the Badger community would want to watch. There’s a little fear in the Iowa game being an opportunity for rock bottom, and some unexpected amount of fight against big bad #1. But how are they going to score? OSU is beating really good teams like Washington and Illinois by just a TD less than this. The Buckeye offense didn’t put up much yardage at Illinois. This should’ve been a tough week of practice for Sayin and weapons. Ryan Day blocks out the rat poison, train keeps rolling in a bloodbath.

Good luck! Week 7: 3-2 (+1.95 units); Season: 15-20 (-2.85 units)