Writing a column about things I feel confident about would have been stupid after one week. Writing one after two weeks might be even dumber.
For example let’s look at a team like Clemson. Now this isn’t my lane, but after their Week One beating at the hands of Georgia, all everyone could talk about was how bad Cade Klubnik was and the lack of transfer portal usage. But after Week Two’s 66-20 demolition of App State? All is forgotten.
What do those two vastly different data points tell us about how good the Tigers are? The truth is somewhere in between, and I’ll let someone who happens to write and post a temperature based graphic about that very team inform as all about that. But let’s look at the team that is on the other side of Saturday’s game.
App State was considered the favorite in the Sun Belt East, and Week One’s 38-10 win over East Tennessee State didn’t do much to change that perception. But was Saturday’s game just a one-off aberration or a sign of some significant issues that teams in their very deep conference can expose? Water will find it’s level.
I’m not sure what exactly to think about App State two games in, but here are five things in the world of the G5 that I do feel confident about. Starting with a team in their very division.
Coastal Carolina is a real problem.
If there is a single game that changes the perception of both teams more (at the G5 level) it was probably the Week One Thursday night game between Coastal Carolina and Jacksonville St.
Prior to it, it looked like a game pitting a Chanticleer team without the face of the program in Grayson McCall taking on a Jacksonville St. team coming off a bowl in their first season at the FBS level. But credit to Tim Beck and his staff for changing the identity of the team in a way that plays to their strengths.
The offense returns three starters from last season, so why not lean on them behind a quarterback who can use his legs to make plays (Ethan Vasko) and a solid stable of running backs. There is no Jared Brown or Sam Pinckney to catch passes, but there are guys who can make plays when they need to.
The schedule breaks in a pretty nice way for CCU. Their remaining road games are at Temple, JMU, Troy, Marshall and Georgia St. And none of those are back-to-back. The home slate includes Virginia, ODU, Marshall, Louisiana, App State and Georgia Southern. I’m not saying Coastal will go undefeated, but there are no games that are impossible to win. They will be heard from in the conference race.
UL Monroe can go to a bowl.
I’m guilty of it. Anyone who made preseason predictions are.
The Sun Belt West was generally considered wide open with one exception. UL Monroe was going to finish last. And after a ho-hum victory over Jackson St. and a win over a UAB team that was personal to coach Bryant Vincent, I can see why you might not still be convinced. But this team feels very different.
Sure, Vincent came to Monroe with a reputation for being an offensive mind. And incoming freshman General Booty brought attention mostly for his name but potential with his game. (He has proven to be a game manager to this point, not turning the ball over and trusting a pretty potent rushing game. However, the team is 2-0 in large part due to it’s defense. While they have scored more than 30 points in both games, they have only given up 20 in two games. (Again, some perspective might be necessary given the opponent.)
In a division that has Texas St. out in front and a jumbled mess behind them, the Warhawks can find 4 more wins. The road games at Texas and at Auburn aren’t likely to be among them, but a home game against Southern Miss and road games at Troy, South Alabama, Marshall and Arkansas St. aren’t as daunting as they might have felt a couple weeks ago. And the season finale against rival Louisiana is at home. There is a path.
The MAC is deeper than you think.
Northern Illinois got their flowers after beating Notre Dame. But while they have made the biggest splash, there is a real chance they aren’t the team to beat in the conference.
I said in my MAC preseason preview that Bowling Green was the team to beat in the conference, and their near miss in Happy Valley against Penn St. does nothing to convince me otherwise. (Northern Illinois at Bowling Oct. 12 FYI.) But this is a much more wide open conference than you would think.
Don’t forget about teams like Toledo and Miami (OH). Those two are staples of the top of the conference and have opportunities this week against P4 opponents (at Mississippi St. and hosting Cincinnati respectively) to remind people who they are. And teams like Eastern Michigan and Ohio always seem to do their best work when the expectations are lowest. Also, the Falcons get another attempt to catch a big fish when they go to College Station to play Texas A&M Sept. 21. While the Huskies have made the biggest statement thus far, it may end up being just one of several big wins the conference can hang their collective hats on.
Air Force is the third best service academy.
This is of course a football related take. It is probably the coolest service academy. But that’s a different column.
Army and Navy have both got out to 2-0 starts in pretty convincing fashion. The Knights have settled into their new home in the AAC easily, with a road win at conference foe FAU already on their belt. Navy’s home wins against Bucknell and Temple aren’t going to have anyone talking CFP for the Midshipmen, but the real issue here are the Falcons.
The defense is it’s typical stingy unit, but the offense is struggling to find impact players. The fact that they couldn’t move the ball consistently against San Jose St. is alarming considering the Spartans are not expected to be in the upper echelon of the Mountain West. The good news is, there is no Boise St. or UNLV on the schedule, so if they can find playmakers to step up they can still make a move in the conference standings. But that’s an IF they haven’t had to consider the past couple of years.
Liberty is still the class of CUSA, but not playoff worthy.
They are 2-0, including a conference win over New Mexico. But these slow starts are going to bite the Flames one of these days.
It feels like they are coasting on reputation. Knowing they can beat most teams on their schedule but just saying “we have Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley and you don’t”. And while that is true, based on what happened the last time they played a P4 team (the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon) they need to step on the throats of their regular season opponents to get the playoff committee to give them a second chance.
This may all be moot, as they have to go undefeated to even get a chance. And their September dates against East Carolina and at App St. may put a 1 in their loss column and turn them from “possible CFP team” to “really good G5 team”.
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