Predicting the G5 Futures: MAC

(To see our Predicting the G5 Futures column previewing the AAC, click here. To see the preview of CUSA, click here.)

Amidst a college football season full of chaotic change, the MAC is that security blanket to keep you comfortable.

Sure, there is the occasional whisper that a team or two will join the conference. UMass actually is next year, but that’s not the needle mover you see when the Sun Belt or even Conference USA makes changes.

From a thousand-foot view, the MAC is just fun football. There are players who may transfer in as reclamation projects. Last year, quarterback Hayden Wolff left Old Dominion for Western Michigan and put up solid numbers. This year someone like Ben Finley to Akron from NC State and Cal comes to mind. There are also QBs who may not be NFL prospects, but are really fun college football players. (Watch Bert Emanuel for Central Michigan and Parker Navarro for Ohio for examples.)

So here are 3 bets I feel comfortable making based on what I think I know about the MAC. And to prove I’m not just some schmuck on the internet, here is what I wrote about the MAC last year. (Ball St. was a pander pick. It is very much not this year.) If you have thoughts, hit me up on the socials. (@walkonredshirts, @justincripe)

As a reminder or if you didn’t read my AAC or Conference USA previews, here are a couple gambling rules I am applying.

1. No values worse than -140. I just don’t have it in me to wait 3 months for a payout so minimal. Juice is for breakfast.
2. I did the legwork to find the best value for you between FanDuel, DraftKings and ESPN BET as of July 15. If you have a gambling site of choice, you do you Boo. Don’t say I’m not trying to help.

Bowling Green Over 6.5 Wins (+116 on FanDuel)

Before I get to Bowling Green, let me state that I think Miami is a very good team, and a lot of people think they are the cream of the crop in the conference. But Over 8 wins at around +100 is a sucker’s bet. There are too many swing games in the non-conference that I am staying away from them. Now, with that out of the way…

I love this Bowling Green team.

If you think Brett Gabbert is the top QB in the MAC, then Connor Bazelak is a very close second. I also believe that running back Terrion Stewart is primed for a big season. He was on track for 1,000 yards before missing the last 4 games due to injury and splitting time with Ta’Ron Keith (who has since transferred to Western Kentucky). I also trust all-conference Tight End Harold Fannin Jr. and incoming transfers RJ Garcia (Kansas St.) and Malcolm Johnson (Auburn) to make plays. With four returning lineman, this offense can be the best in the conference.

The Falcons return 6 starters from a defense that finished 25th in the nation in yards allowed last year, including the entire starting front line. Starting corner Jordan Oladokun and incoming transfer CJ Brown (from conference rival Northern Illinois) will stabilize the secondary.

The part that makes the Over a bit hard to justify are the back to back non-conference games at Penn St. and at Texas A&M after the season opener against Fordham. A 1-2 start is all but guaranteed. But from there, 3 of their next 4 games are at home against Old Dominion, Northern Illinois and Kent St., with the lone road game in that stretch at Akron. If 1-2 turns into 5-2, then you just need two wins at Toledo, at Central Michigan, home against Western Michigan, at Ball St. and in the finale against Miami being played in Bowling Green, Ohio. I like those chances.

Kent St. Under 2.5 Wins (+128 on FanDuel)

Let’s say something nice about Kent St.

They return four starters on the offensive line. And incoming transfer Ky Thomas – who spent time at Kansas and Minnesota – has a chance to be an all-conference running back. Same with sophomore receiver Chrishon McCray if he improves on his 41 catches and 4 TDs from last year. And hey, a 2-10 finish is still improvement over last year’s 1-11 season.

However, I think Kent St. wants to win football games, but every year their non-conference schedule suggests they don’t.

At Pittsburgh. At Tennessee. At Penn St. There are 3 very likely losses. A home game against Saint Francis is thrown in there. Ok so that’s one win. You still need two more from the conference schedule, and the O/U is basically banking on two home wins against Eastern Michigan, Ball St., Ohio and Akron.

This is a “bet it and forget it” play. It’s juiced pretty good to the Over. Could they make this pick look very dumb? Maybe. But say “I’m going to bet the Over on Kent St.’s win total” with a straight face, I dare you.

Ball St. Under 4 wins (-115 on DraftKings)

This is probably a make it or break it year for Mike Neu. And with five of the first seven games on the road, it’s a bad year for that.

A fun fact: They are the last team in the FBS to play their first game of the season. They don’t start until Sept. 7 at home against Missouri St. But after that, they only play in Muncie once until Oct. 26. And what are those games? Glad you asked.

At Miami (the Florida one). At Central Michigan. At James Madison. Following a home game against Western Michigan, they go back on the road to Kent St. and Vanderbilt. 1-6 is very, very real. And while they get 3 of the last 5 at home, those games are against teams expected to be towards the top of the conference (Northern Illinois, the other Miami, Bowling Green). Buffalo coach Pete Lembo is going to want to beat his former team. And the finale is at Ohio. Where are the wins?

I could try to put a spin on things. Ball St. tends to do their best work when the expectations are the lowest. They came out of nowhere to finish the 2020 season ranked in the Top 25. But the reality is, this is likely to be a long season in Muncie. At least the frat parties will be fun.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Bowling Green
2. Miami (OH)
3. Toledo
4. Northern Illinois
5. Central Michigan
6. Ohio
7. Eastern Michigan
8. Western Michigan
9. Buffalo
10. Kent St.
11. Akron
12. Ball St.