(To see our Predicting the G5 Futures column previewing the AAC, click here.)
It would be easy for any Conference USA preview to just say “It’s Liberty’s world and everyone else is just paying rent. Sure, you may see the occasional clickbait headline that suggests Western Kentucky or Jacksonville St. are set to challenge. But we here at Walk-On Redshirts are truth tellers.
It’s Liberty’s world and everyone else is just paying rent.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be some intrigue within the conference. Jacksonville St. made a good first impression last year and are looking to sustain their position in the upper half of the conference, while Sam Houston St. is looking to climb to that level. Both schools already have seniority, as Kennesaw St. enters CUSA for their first year as a member of the FBS. There are new coaches at UTEP, New Mexico St. and Middle Tennessee St. Not to mention Louisiana Tech and Florida International are still there!
So I have picked 3 teams to highlight based on the over/under win totals established by the good people out in the desert. And just so you don’t think I am some rando who just writes these for clicks, check my work from last year. If you have issues, let me know on our socials (@walkonredshirts, @justincripe). I’m not hard to find.
As a reminder if you didn’t check out the column previewing the AAC, a couple self-imposed rules:
- No values worse than -140. I just don’t have it in me to wait 3 months for a payout so minimal. Juice is for breakfast.
- I did the legwork to find the best value for you between FanDuel, DraftKings and ESPN BET as of July 15. If you have a gambling site of choice, you do you Boo. Don’t say I’m not trying to help.
Western Kentucky Over 7.5 wins (+105 on ESPN BET)
This one is actually all over the place depending on where you look, but this was the only site I found Plus money, so here we are.
The bet is based on mostly on Todd Helton and what he has established in Bowling Green, Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are consistently in the top half of the conference thanks to an offense that has proven to be difficult to stop. And this year, they brought in well-travelled quarterback TJ Finley to lead the offense. The receiving corps will need someone to step up after the graduation of Malachi Corley, but it’s Western Kentucky. They will figure it out. Defensively, they have arguably the top CB in the conference in Anthony Johnson and other experienced pieces. But again, it’s Conference USA. We aren’t talking about the Baltimore Ravens trying to stop Patrick Mahomes here. They’ll be fine.
Looking at the schedule, I think this team is undervalued based on what they lost, opening the season at Alabama and their 8-5 record last year. But taking a look at a few of the games they lost, Troy isn’t on their schedule this year, Jacksonville St. is a home game this time around and New Mexico St. is rebuilding. Essentially, I am betting on an 8-2 record assuming losses at Alabama and at Liberty towards the end of the year. They also have a game at Boston College which won’t be easy, but the Eagles are prone to a stinker against a G5 squad from time to time. (Ask Northern Illinois about last year.) That leaves home games against Eastern Kentucky, Toledo, UTEP, Kennesaw St., Louisiana Tech and JSU and matchups with Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston and New Mexico St. away from home. There may be a test or 2 in that lot, but until other schools not named Liberty prove they can outscore Big Red, I see no reason to believe they can’t win at least 8 games.
Jacksonville St. Under 7.5 wins (+110 on FanDuel)
So to hit the Over, the Gamecocks need to go 8-4. However, they have road games at Louisville, at Liberty and end the season at Western Kentucky. Let’s start there.
Can they win at least one of those? Sure. This is a good team coached by Rich Rodriguez, they won’t be intimidated by any of these environments. But they aren’t likely to be favored in any of them. Assuming 3 losses, you are asking a team breaking in a new quarterback (likely either Zion Turner or Logan Smothers) to go 8-1 against the rest of their schedule. The non-con includes games at home against Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss and a road game at Eastern Michigan. All 3 of those are tricky in some form or fashion.
The rest of the CUSA schedule is pretty manageable, with the only other road games at Kennesaw St. and at Louisiana Tech (which is immediately following the Liberty road game). The only home game I would be wary of is Florida International, as it is immediately following the back-to-back road games at Liberty and La Tech. And speaking of the Panthers…
Florida International Over 4.5 Wins (+138 on FanDuel)
After the top 3 in the conference, there is a bit of a log jam. And this will sound wild, but outside of Liberty, this team might have the best skill position players in the conference.
Let’s start with quarterback Keyone Jenkins. The freshman saw his first action in the second game of the season last year and never really looked back, accounting for over 2,400 passing yards and 11 TDs through the air and another 6 on the ground. That dual-threat ability always keeps defenses on their toes.
The loss of receiver Kris Mitchell to Notre Dame hurts, but Jenkins has weapons to throw to in Dean Patterson (28 catches last year), Eric Rivers (32 catches last year). They also brought in receiver Jullian Lewis from Georgia Tech who can make an impact. As could running back Shomari Lawrence, who combined for over 1,000 yards with backup Kejon Owens. If an offensive line that returns 3 starts holds up, this offense can put up numbers.
Defensively, there are definitely concerns, and this is a team that may have to win some 38-35 games. But with a schedule that has home games against Central Michigan, Monmouth, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston, New Mexico St. and Middle Tennessee, there are wins to be had. Forget about games at Indiana, at Liberty, and probably at Jacksonville St. But get a road win at FAU, UTEP or Kennesaw St., and an Over that doesn’t even require getting to a bowl is very live.
Predicted Order of Finish:
- Liberty
- Western Kentucky
- Jacksonville St.
- Louisiana Tech
- Middle Tennessee St.
- Florida International
- New Mexico St.
- UTEP
- Sam Houston St.
- Kennesaw St.
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