I don’t like facing this reality, but it is what it is. We are at the halfway point of the college football regular season.
This is of course the time of year that a lot of people with write about “Most Surprising” or “Most Disappointing”. But I am not here to talk about the Indianas and Florida States of the world. I want to look at this from a completely different perspective.
There are a lot of teams sitting at 3-3 for whatever reason. Maybe they had a tough non-conference schedule and are finding their footing in conference. Maybe an early season injury forced a team to make some changes. (What’s up Jacksonville State?) And the reality is, there is a wide variance of outcomes if you sit at that spot. They could get hot and end up 9-3 or they could take a serious downturn and finish 3-9. The truth is somewhere in between for most of those teams. So sitting at the midway point of the season, who are some mid teams I am keeping an eye on? Here’s one from each G5 conference and how they may look at the end of the year.
AAC: Charlotte
The talk of the G5 has been Army and Navy. And rightfully so. They may be heading towards one of the most important showdowns in the history of the rivalry if they can both keep Notre Dame from “winning” the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy. But taking a glance at the conference standings, they aren’t the only teams out to an early lead in the conference race. Among the other teams sitting at 2-0 are Tulane, North Texas and…Charlotte.
Two one point victories against Gardner-Webb and Rice may not instill a ton of confidence, but those are games that the Fighting Biff Poggis probably didn’t win last year. And there is no shame in getting beat by James Madison, Indiana or North Carolina. (Well, maybe the last one isn’t aging well.) But this team is starting to click, especially offensively.
Florida transfer Max Brown was expected to be the starter, but freshman Deshawn Purdie has actually taken the reins. He isn’t putting up crazy numbers (his high is 206 yards passing) but he has been efficient and hasn’t made many mistakes, throwing for 4 TDs and only 1 INT. The rushing game has been the story, no surprise considering Poggi’s background coming from Michigan. Hahsaun Wilson, Terron Kellman and Cartevious Norton are all backs capable of going off, and the rushing game as a whole all came together rushing for 6 TDs in their last game against East Carolina. They may not be able to do that every game, but they at least have an identity established.
Looking at their schedule going forward, this week they travel to Annapolis to face Navy in a battle for first place that NOBODY saw coming. But beyond that, they also have a road game at Memphis and a home game against Tulane. Not many 3 game stretches as tough as that. But the closing stretch at home against South Florida, at Florida Atlantic and at home against UAB conversely looks significantly more manageable than it did weeks ago. They may need to win all 3 to reach a bowl, but if they do, this is a team that will have a ton of momentum going into 2025.
Prediction: 6-6
Conference USA: Jacksonville St.
If you saw them play on the first Thursday night of the season against Coastal Carolina, you were probably really disappointed. The Gamecocks were seen as a threat to Liberty and THE team coming into its second year of FBS play. Then Sam Houston came along and stole a little bit of that thunder. The BearKats are a threat to Liberty, but JSU has recovered nicely from an 0-3 start.
The team made a change at quarterback week two against Louisville, turning to Tyler Huff to take over for Logan Smothers. And the team hasn’t looked back offensively. Huff is the dual threat that Rich Rod needs to have his offense run at its smoothest. He has rushed for over 100 yards twice and thrown for two TDs in two different games. If you squint, you can see a little bit of Diego Pavia in his game.
From a schedule perspective, Southern Miss, Kennesaw St. and New Mexico St. are very bad teams, but the Gamecocks beat each of them soundly. You can only play the teams on your schedule. But that has given the teams confidence going into the meat of their conference slate. Their road slate includes game at Liberty, Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky, so the defense is going to have to be on point. But getting Sam Houston at home is more significant than expected. (The conference race is sneaky fun.)
Prediction: 7-5
MAC: Central Michigan
I’m not sure it gets more mid than Central Michigan. It’s right there in their name. But beyond that, they are 3-3 overall and 1-1 in the conference. If there was ever a team destined to finish 6-6, this is it.
There’s just not a lot to be Fired Up about. (If you saw CMU’s helmets last week that joke would’ve hit hard.) They have one of the top RBs in the league in Marion Lukes, but issues at quarterback have rendered this team very one-dimensional. And a defense that looked downright awful against FIU and Ball St. might have conference foes licking their chops.
The back half of the slate has road games against top tier teams Eastern Michigan, Miami, Toledo and Northern Illinois. And Bowling Green comes to Mount Pleasant. After going to Penn St. and Texas A&M, I don’t think the Falcons are going to be intimidated by the atmosphere on a Tuesday night in Mount Pleasant. Maybe Tyler Jefferson can give the Chippewas a spark at quarterback, but I’m not betting on it.
Prediction: 4-8
Mountain West: Fresno St.
Way back in August, Fresno St. was looked at as a threat to Boise St. to the top of the Mountain West and by proxy, a potential CFP playoff team. But as Michael Scott said, “how the turntables have turned”.
First, coach Jeff Tedford stepped away from the team to focus on his health. But after a season opener at defending national champ Michigan where the Bulldogs played pretty well, enough data has come in to show that Michigan’s offense just isn’t very good. Fresno St. rebounded nicely from that to take care of business against Sacramento St., New Mexico St. and New Mexico before getting caught up in the Hajj-Malik Williams Experience.
It remains to be seen if the 59-17 blitz by UNLV did long-term damage, but last week’s 25-17 loss to Washington St. didn’t help answer those questions. Maybe the defense just struggles against duel-threat quarterbacks. Or maybe an offense being carried by quarterback Mikey Keene isn’t quite good enough to go toe to toe with the best offenses in the conference.
The back half of the schedule is filled with games that honestly could go either way. There is no Boise St. but home games against San Jose St., Hawaii and Colorado St along with a road games against an improved Nevada, UCLA and an Air Force team that isn’t very good but can get it together at any time also pose challenges. The team is talented, but I don’t love the vibes. It feels like they are always catching teams at the wrong time and it may cost them a bowl.
Prediction: 5-7
Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
If you want a buy low team that could go on a run, this might be it.
A lot of teams would lose at Michigan, Iowa St. and Texas St. So 3-3 with those as your losses is not the worst thing in the world. Among the Red Wolves 3 wins is a game over South Alabama that could age well as the season goes on. And the back half of the slate includes road games at Southern Miss, Georgia St. and Louisiana along with home games against Troy, Old Dominion and *checks notes* division leading UL Monroe.
This team hasn’t been the most consistent, but when you have one of the most dynamic quarterback-receiver combos in the conference in Jaylen Raynor and Corey Rucker, you have a chance against any of those teams. If the defense holds up their end, there is a non-zero chance this team wins out.
Prediction: 8-4
So there are a few 3-3 teams that can really swing their fortunes the rest of the season. Obviously, there are others. Who stands out as interesting in the Group of 5? Let us know on our socials.
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