The field tightened again with five more teams falling out of the race. Only twenty four teams remain with a path to the College Football Playoff.
Here is how the system works:
Serious Contender
A team firmly in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. Even with one loss, they would still have a strong chance to get in.
Work To Do
A team that must keep winning. One slip could put its playoff hopes in serious jeopardy or eliminate them.
Needs Some Help
A team without a clear path to the playoff. They likely must win their conference championship and get help elsewhere.
ACC
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Virginia (9–2, 6–1)
Virginia was off this past weekend and now plays in their rivalry game against Virginia Tech. It does not matter how they win, they just need to win. A win puts them in the ACC Championship with a College Football Playoff spot on the line.
Remaining games: vs. Virginia Tech
SMU (8–3, 6–1)
SMU had no problem with Louisville and looks to be hitting its stride at the right time. Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season, and a win will put them in the ACC Championship.
Remaining games: at Cal
Needs Some Help
Miami (FL) (9–2, 5–2)
Miami took care of business against Virginia Tech. The hardest part for Miami is the waiting game. The Hurricanes have no direct path to the ACC Championship and need some help. They need to get into the top 10 to have a chance, and chaos is now their friend, assuming they beat Pitt.
Remaining games: at Pitt
Pitt (8–3, 6–1)
Pitt is behind both SMU and Virginia in tiebreakers and needs one of them to lose this weekend. On top of that, they need to beat Miami. Pitt is not out yet, but the road is unclear.
Remaining games: vs. Miami
Now Eliminated: Georgia Tech
Big 12
Serious Contender
Texas Tech (10–1, 7–1)
Texas Tech was off this past weekend. They will travel to Morgantown to face a feisty West Virginia team. Ultimately, it is hard to imagine West Virginia putting up much of a fight against this Texas Tech team. A win puts the Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship. If they lose in the Big 12 Championship, do they stay in the playoff?
Remaining games: at West Virginia
Work To Do
BYU (10–1, 7–1)
All BYU has to do is take care of business this weekend against UCF. A win would set up a rematch against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. BYU has to beat the Red Raiders to make the playoff, but they should have a chance to do so.
Remaining games: vs. UCF
Needs Some Help
Utah (9–2, 6–2)
Utah needed a big second half comeback to beat Kansas State, which might not impress the committee. A blowout could have helped their case, and now they need chaos to make the playoff. Utah can only make the Big 12 Championship if Texas Tech loses and BYU wins.
Arizona State (8–3, 6–2)
Arizona State remains alive, but like Utah, they need help. Their path relies on other results going their way.
Remaining games: vs. Arizona
Now Eliminated: Houston, Cincinnati
Big Ten
Serious Contender
Indiana (11–0, 8–0)
Indiana was off this past weekend and now will face Purdue. While Purdue is better than last year, they still should not challenge Indiana. The Hoosiers are in the playoff no matter the outcome.
Remaining games: at Purdue
Ohio State (11–0, 8–0)
The game everyone has been waiting for. Can Ryan Day get over the Michigan hurdle? He is 1–4 against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes are in the playoff regardless of the outcome, but a win over Michigan would mean a lot moving forward.
Remaining games: at Michigan
Oregon (10–1, 7–1)
Oregon is in the playoff if they win this weekend. A win over USC is another quality mark on their resume. The Ducks were seventh heading into last weekend and are a lock with a win over Washington.
Remaining games: at Washington
Work To Do
Michigan (9–2, 7–1)
Michigan is on the fringe between Work To Do and Needs Some Help. If they beat Ohio State, how far will they jump? A win over Ohio State would send Oregon to the Big Ten Championship. Would Michigan move into the top 10 or remain just outside?
Remaining games: vs. Ohio State
Needs Some Help
None
Now Eliminated: USC
SEC
Serious Contender
Texas A&M (11–0, 7–0)
Texas A&M is going to make its first College Football Playoff this year. The question is whether they will get a bye. If they lose to Texas, they likely drop to 5 or 6. If they make the SEC Championship, they might get a bye either way.
Remaining games: at Texas
Georgia (10–1, 7–1)
Georgia is currently sitting outside the SEC Championship, and if they beat Georgia Tech, that might not be a bad thing. They would be in line for a possible top four seed, but as we saw last year, could a long layoff hurt them?
Remaining games: at Georgia Tech
Ole Miss (10–1, 6–1)
Ole Miss is likely in the playoff no matter the outcome of this game, but they can remove any doubt by beating Mississippi State. A home playoff game in Oxford would be electric.
Remaining games: at Mississippi State
Work To Do
Oklahoma (9–2, 5–2)
Oklahoma is in a good position after being ranked in the top 10 last week. A win over Missouri solidifies their spot, leaving only a home game against LSU. Beat the Tigers and they are in. Lose and they are out. It is that simple.
Remaining games: vs. LSU
Alabama (9–2, 6–1)
All that remains for Alabama is the Iron Bowl. The strange situation is that a win puts them in the SEC Championship. If they beat Auburn but lose in the SEC Championship, where would the committee rank them? Do they still make the playoff?
Remaining games: at Auburn
Needs Some Help
Vanderbilt (9–2, 5–2)
Vanderbilt officially needs help to make the College Football Playoff. They have one final game against Tennessee, but even a win is likely not enough. They need chaos in front of them to reach the top 10.
Remaining games: at Tennessee
Now Eliminated:
Independents
Serious Contender
Notre Dame (9–2)
Notre Dame is rolling. They had 49 points when the second quarter began. There is no realistic chance they lose to Stanford. Win and they are in, simple as that.
Remaining games: at Stanford
Group of Five
Serious Contender
None
Work To Do
Tulane (9–2, 6–1)
Tulane is currently the highest, and only, ranked Group of Five team. If they win the American Conference, they will get the final conference champion spot. Charlotte is one of the worst FBS teams, and it is hard to see Tulane losing, which leaves the question of who they face in the championship.
Remaining games: vs. Charlotte
North Texas (10–1, 6–1)
North Texas just needs to beat Temple to make the conference championship. They are currently unranked, but it would not be surprising if the committee ranks them this week. At 10–1, they continue to dominate lesser teams. A win over Temple and Tulane would put them in the playoff.
Remaining games: vs. Temple
Needs Some Help
James Madison (10–1, 7–0)
James Madison had a chance to cement their case, but instead needed a second half comeback against Washington State. Now they likely need chaos to make the College Football Playoff unless the committee ranks them this week.
Remaining games: at Coastal Carolina
Navy (8–2, 6–1)
Navy needs either Tulane or North Texas to lose this weekend. The problem is that neither faces a team with a winning record. There is still a path, but it will not be easy.
Remaining games: at Memphis
San Diego State (9–2, 6–1)
San Diego State might have one of the best defenses in the country. They are second in the nation, allowing just 11.6 points per game. The two losses are going to be hard to overcome. They need chaos in front of them and must win out. Their chances are on life support.
Remaining games: at New Mexico
Now Eliminated: ECU
