The best bet remains no sweat red hot! Illinois-Washington went over 54.5 with over eleven minutes left in the game. If only I flipped Houston and Northwestern in terms of moneyline or spread, it would’ve been an epic Week 9. With Oklahoma and Vandy offsetting each other as home favorites it was 3-2 (+1.9 units). More of the same this week will get us into plus money on the year. It’s kind of a down week in terms of games due to a lot of byes, and the annual preseason headliners of OSU-PSU and UGA-UF each being down a head coach. The B12 is featuring the most good-on-good matchups, while the ACC sends is best on the road for tough prove it spots. The schedule is so tricky I’m breaking my G5 fast for a late kick. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!
Bet 1: Rutgers +12.5 at Illinois (11:00am CT Sat 11/1, NBC; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)
The chopping finally broke through for RU last week at Purdue as they notched their first B1G win. Illini return home after the disappointing trip to Seattle. I like over 62.5 too, but Rutgers has simply shown too much fight to pass up this many points against a very flawed Illinois defense. Bielema has done a wonderful job building up the program to win in focused spots, like their home upset of USC earlier this year. The decades long Illini weak spot is when they’re expected to cruise. Illinois’s remaining 4 games are too beatable (Maryland, at Wisconsin, Northwestern) to not infect the single week intensity needed to cover here.
Bet 2: Duke +3.5 (-115) at Clemson (11:00am CT Sat 11/1, ACCN)
Cade Klubnik is probable to return, but the rot in Clemson runs deeper. I wish I could just root for Dabo to fight through it in a refreshing contrast to the hooks at PSU, LSU and elsewhere, but Duke remains on the board. I’d prefer to take the moneyline if it was +150 or better, but at just +130, the 3.5 is the better value. Sure, Clemson could rise up and dramatically change the direction of their season, but as of this writing they’ve only beaten Troy, UNC and BC. Duke put together a mercenary crew together over the offseason to show off against their former bullies in a spot precisely like this. Darian Mensah ain’t gonna fell bad about it. So stop asking!
Bet 3: USC at Nebraska under 59.5 (-115) (6:30pm CT Sat 11/1, NBC)
The late money is coming in on Nebraska as it went from USC -6.5 to 4.5 in the last day or so. When USC has the ball it’ll be classic good-on-good vs the Husker secondary. Between the strong possibility that Nebraska doesn’t get beat over the top, and the growing book on USC that straight ahead running and clock control are the best way to attack them, this doesn’t shape up as a constant back and forth to me. It’s too even for one side to breakout and it just devolve into easy scoring. Possession will be too important to get to 60 points.
Bet 4: San Jose St -1.5 vs Hawaii (9:30pm CT Sat 11/1, CBSSN)
The Hawaiian vs Hawaii. It’s Ken Niumatalolo’s first game against his alma mater as head coach at SJSU. When the 2-5 team is favored against 6-2, you don’t say no. This is as pure a pride spot as it gets for SJSU. Season in the dumps, but you can defend your head coach’s honor for 3 hours and nothing else will matter. Hawaii’s got more going on, is trying to ride the momentum of their 3-game winning streak to a Mountain West CG appearance. As impressive as Hawaii has been, they’re not setup to be taking MW opponents best punch, and that’s what SJSU is setup to deliver.
Best Bet (2 units): Florida vs Georgia under 50.5 (2:30pm CT Sat 11/1, ABC)
UGA’s gotten into shootouts against Tennessee and Ole Miss, but UF with an interim seems a far cry from them. The Gators should be fired up and game, but what that looks like in my mind is a nasty rallying defense and determination to compete at the line of scrimmage, it doesn’t look like a sharp passing offense. The underdog having nothing to lose doesn’t usually mean it makes big plays, but it does mean big plays are tougher to make against them. Muck it up in a game in the teens into the fourth quarter, and hope the late bounces go your way.
Good luck! Week 9: 3-2 (+1.9 units); Season: 20-25 (-1.3 units)
