Instead of perfection it was more incremental progress as the record continues to improve after Week 9 put us negative for the first time all year (3-2, +0.55; wins RU ML, Ole Miss, Col over; losses: Cincy, NC St x2)). Rutgers success as a +190 dog was necessary to stay positive thanks to an overplay of NC State as a best bet (Duke is, in fact, just pretty good). Cincinnati’s on the banned list at this point. Despite looking good early, the horrid pick-six from Sorsby changed the game completely (4th down is not, in fact, an excuse to just float balls out into the flat from the opposing 20). All the complaining about the CFP rankings has me in a good mood. I guess people didn’t get the memo that more teams didn’t change the fact that the last one is all that matters, and they’ll do whatever they want for any reason at any time. Hopefully the rising pressure translates to 5 winners.
Bet 1: Syracuse +290 moneyline at Cal (2:00pm CT Sat 11/16, CW; all odds via ESPN Bet)
Emboldened by the Rutgers hit, even more aggressive to start Week 12. Cal has been getting more respect than any 0-4 ACC team in recent memory, and they finally paid it off last Friday night at Wake covering 7.5, winning by 10. Syracuse lost their second consecutive road game at BC, but it was a much better showing than the rout at Pitt. Syracuse has shown the pedigree to pull this off with the impressive win at UNLV last month. Fran Brown has shown more than enough mojo to take a chance on +290 vs a team that just won their first conference game.
Bet 2: Michigan St +2.5 (+100) at Illinois (1:30pm CT Sat 11/16, FS1)
Illinois fans can sense the all too familiar descent phase the season has become stuck in. Blown out at Oregon, join the club. Not recover at home vs Minnesota, uggh. In comes an unpredictable Sparty that stands to benefit from the Illini’s predictable malaise. A worse MSU spoiled a better UI in this game two years ago, and I look for Chiles to enjoy popping the balloon of optimism in Champaign.
Bet 3: Penn St -28.5 (-110) at Purdue (2:30pm CT Sat 11/16, CBS)
It’s unnecessarily cruel that Purdue keeps getting trotted out in front of the biggest TV windows for their beatings at the hand of top 10 teams. I’m of two minds on PSU. They’re overrated at #4 based on a cursory review of their resume, but the wins at USC and Wisconsin are better than the opponent records indicate. They were able to flush the stench of the annual OSU loss with a dominant white-out win. The Nittany Lion defense is too good to let Purdue hang around. James Franklin is petty enough to run up the score late if necessary.
Bet 4: Nebraska at USC under 51.5 (-115) (3:00pm CT Sat 11/16, FOX)
New OC vs new QB is enough to lure me in. Holgorsen replaces Satterfield for the Huskers. Maiava in for Moss for the Trojans. Maybe play the first half total instead of the full game if you think the feeling out process will play out like a script, but that’s too cute for my liking. I get Lincoln Riley’s need to see what he’s got, but Miller Moss was facing too much of a pass rush to think a dramatic improvement will be immediate with Maiava. Embrace the slop.
Best Bet (2 units): Georgia -9.5 (-115) vs Tennessee (6:30pm CT Sat 11/16, ABC)
Laying 9.5 to a top 10 team is a steep “buy low” price on UGA, but it’s still the right play. The complaints about UGA’s ranking are self righteous and unnecessary since it’s meaningless, but the fact remains that when pushed against the wall, their ceiling is as high as anybody’s. Severely flawed compared to the last three years, but more than good enough to rise up in Athens and deliver a statement. Coach up Carson Beck, take care of the ball, and beat a young QB who’s just 1-1 on the road for his career.
Good luck! (Week 11: 3-2, +0.55; Season: 28-30-1, -2.8)
