Week 12 brought stability after the Week 11 bloodbath, resembling so many weeks this season with a rock solid never in doubt best bet, and not much else. My ND-Pitt read was way off as Pitt no-showed, proudly so based on their coach’s own words, and neither NC State spread nor Miss St moneyline threatened cashing. To the good, it was no sweat for BYU to roll past TCU, and best bet Wazzu had their cover iced by early fourth quarter, 2-3 (-0.25). This is a down week, stretched extra thin by the double-bye 14 week calendar. I’m generally not a fan of betting 40+ point spreads, but a week like this can force reconsideration. In terms of CFP impact and looking for an edge there, the field appears more walled off from the at-large perspective than a year ago. At this point last year, Alabama, Ole Miss and Miami were ranked 7-9 and all went on to lose again before the CCG’s. This year’s equivalent of that would require both Oregon and Oklahoma to get upset, in all likelihood this week, and then either ND or Bama losing as a major favorite. It might just turn out that expansion wasn’t a panacea in terms of injecting “playoff stakes” to more games. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conclude. Let’s go!

Bet 1: SMU -2.5 (+100) vs Louisville (11:00am CT Sat 11/22, ESPN2; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)

I don’t like the idea of betting into Louisville when they should be at a low point in terms of perception after blowing back-to-back home games to Cal and Clemson respectively, but the line is treating them as no worse for them. SMU started out of the gate slow in their CFP encore, but a 1pt loss at Wake is the only blemish in two months, and they are coming in off a bye with the ACC CG still well within reach. I would see this as a good bounce back spot for Louisville if it had just been one loss and they got to regroup on the road. But consecutive losses that erase everything of importance in reach? SMU can kick that in the mouth.

Bet 2: Arkansas +8.5 at Texas (2:30pm CT Sat 11/22, ABC)

This is an insane spread for a 2-8 team on the road against a preseason #1 who is still on the periphery of the CFP. All does not appear well in Austin. The loss to Georgia knocked the wind out of the mirage of resilience that was inexplicably surviving against teams like Kentucky and Miss St. 8.5 is a ton of points for Texas to cover in SEC play. Only versus wounded Mateer in Red River have they won by more. Arkansas at home is the spot to do it, but when your coach is getting testy with the media and you know your roadkill against A&M, another escape act will be a good UT outcome.

Bet 3: Pitt +2.5 at Georgia Tech (6:00pm CT Sat 11/22, ESPN)

Another contrarian play into a stinky spread. Pitt embarrassed themselves a half-dozen ways against ND, from the lead up all the way through late time outs and an icy hand shake. On the other side, it seems like a lot of people are ignoring that GT didn’t return to form after their NCST loss, and struggled with a very poor BC team. In terms of ACC schedule, GT misses UVA, SMU, Miami, and Louisville. Haynes King is a good player and story, but they haven’t played many teams at Pitt’s level. The vibes this week would suggest a spread close near a TD. If they’re begging you to take the Yellow Jackets, ask yourself why.

Bet 4: Florida +155 ML vs Tennessee (6:30pm CT Sat 11/22, ABC)

The Gators come in losers of 3 in a row, but importantly none of them were at the swamp. They’re looking to close out the Ben Hill Griffin portion of their SEC schedule a perfect 3-0. Given the fight we saw at Ole Miss last Saturday, +155 looks like a good price. Tennessee has been a steady back half of the top 25 all season, but since the Georgia game it seems clear they’re closer to the unranked than the contenders. With Vandy on deck, they’re too directionless to take care of business if UF brings the SEC Swamp energy we’ve seen so far.

Best Bet (2 units): Michigan at Maryland under 45.5 (105) (3:00pm CT Sat 11/22, BTN)

The Terps are going through one of the quietest death stretches in B1G play in recent memory. 1-11 their last 12 in conference and Michigan coming to town will try your will. The Malik Washington era started promising, the usual September under Locks. But they’re averaging less than 14ppg the last month, and UM is not the cure. As for the Wolverines, they’ve got to clean things up first and foremost. They want to 1) win, 2) stay healthy, 3) have Underwood go turnover free, and 4) put as little as possible on tape for OSU. The last three of those favor a clean safe game plan. This the absolute last spot for UM to be running tricks to tack on points. Look for something in the 24-10 range.

Good luck! Week 12: 2-3 (-0.25 units); Season: 27-33 (-2.1 units)