Fresh off the best week of the year, I’m back for more, and no less greedy! Thanks to the ambition of Syracuse as a +290 underdog, I was able to go only 0.1 unit worse than a perfect 5-0 on straight bets despite a loss (4-1, +5.9; wins: Cuse ML, PSU, Neb-USC under, UGA x2; loss: MSU). Thanks to minimal remaining byes and SEC non-con, we’ve got a pretty good slate to choose from. That Syracuse price will be tough to follow up, but a moneyline underdog (or two?) remains a must include. Indiana’s Monday line of +13.5 looks damn attractive in hindsight, but tougher choices won’t deter us. Encore performance below.
Bet 1: Maryland +140 moneyline vs Iowa (11:00am CT Sat 11/23, BTN; all odds via ESPN Bet)
All Maryland’s done for the last month is lose, but this is a spot similar to their last win – against USC. Spirits were at their lowest after getting blown out by Northwest and the Terps went out and pulled the upset. Iowa comes in after the Brendan Sullivan era ended predictably quickly with an injury. Instead of going back to Cade McNamara, in steps young prospect Jackson Stratton. He had some nice throws in a series or two at UCLA, but being the road starter going in will be a fresh test. Locksley comes through just when you think he’s toast.
Bet 2: North Carolina -2.5 (-110) at Boston College (11:00am CT Sat 11/23, CW)
UNC is undefeated against BC since the latter joined the conference in 2005. It was 20 years ago with Matt Ryan not even the starter yet, that BC last beat them as a member of the Big East. They haven’t played much as is the case among non-divisional ACC opponents, this is just the second time since 2013. BC played well at SMU in Grayson James’s first start in replacement of Castellanos, but UNC is by far the hotter team coming in. Three straight wins for the Heels behind Jacolby Criswell. Look for the UNC defense to contain the BC running game and Robichaux and the lack of a dual threat QB haunts BC.
Bet 3: Tennessee -41 (-110) vs UTEP (12:00pm CT Sat 11/23, SECN+)
It’s an obnoxious spread and bet, so not being easy to watch on TV isn’t really a bad thing. The Vols should come out salty after the way the Georgia game slipped from their grasp. UTEP has looked better the last month going 2-2 in CUSA play, but this is a different ball game. Heupel runs it up in November non-con winning by 51ppg since 2021. Too much pressure on the edge of CFP consideration for Tennessee not to win with the expected oomph.
Bet 4: Minnesota +360 moneyline vs Penn St (2:30pm CT Sat 11/23, CBS)
Bolder than +290 is a reality! I think the conditions are right for the Gophers to pull this off outright. PSU is a road favorite coming in off two blowout wins in a row, the second of which against the worst team in the B1G by a wide margin. Fleck’s side is a home dog off a bye after a very disappointing road loss at Rutgers that ended a four game winning streak. Minnesota isn’t as good, but this definitely conjures up memories of PSU traveling to a frigid Minnesota in November 2019 only to go down as a top 5 team. The Gophers offense has become less one dimensional under Brosmer and that’s the difference (as was the case 5 years ago).
Best Bet (2 units): Vanderbilt at LSU under 53.5 (-110) (6:45pm CT Sat 11/23, SECN)
Six weeks ago, the total between these two teams would’ve been nearly 70 points. These offenses, and team in the case of LSU, are in a serious funk. Instead of being some over adjustment due to recency bias, this total is infected by nostalgia for offenses that no longer exist. While Vandy +7.5 is tempting, I’m leaning into general ugliness more. A Vandy game hasn’t gone over this number since their upset of Alabama, a sputtering LSU isn’t going to put an end to that.
Good luck! (Week 12: 4-1, +5.9; Season: 32-31-1, +3.1)
