It might’ve felt good to be back, but the picks were miserable. Toledo was a totally unforced error of greed, going moneyline when they covered the 10.5 but never threatened outright. NU to win outright in New Orleans was as wrong as a pick could get. Taking IU to immediately resume their auto-cover ways was naïve, but thankfully Cal came through to prevent the wipe out and end up 1-4 (-4.15 units). In hindsight, I shied away from the big games for no good reason. OSU at home vs a new starter will almost always make more sense than the G5 stuff I dredged up. Instead of the top 10 matchup theme of week one, the slate is loaded with mismatches so big the most common thing for a top 10 team is no spread at all. In my quest for 5 winners I’ll lean into the typical overreaction theme when 1 game leads to more certainty than it should. But most of all I’m going to stick with what worked, and go after the lines that look most off, the way Cal-Ore St did. As always, 5 picks with a press on the last most confident one.
Bet 1: Baylor +2.5 (+100) at SMU (11:00am CT Sat 9/6, CW; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)
This spread stinks to me. SMU gave up some yardage to East Texas A&M in their opening 42-13 win, but it was 42-3 before the last 10 in garbage time. It wasn’t an alarming showing, unlike Baylor who got gashed at home by a game Auburn squad. So the CFP team with the returning QB is laying less than a FG at home? Doesn’t compute. Nobody can accuse Baylor of dodging teams with this 1-2 start to non-con while playing in a league with 9 conference games. I think they turn the in-state P4 road non-con into a restart.
Bet 2: Virginia +3.5 (-125) at NC State (11:00am CT Sat 9/6, ESPN2)
Non-con among conference members doesn’t even shock us anymore. I’m no fan of laying this much juice, but it’s not tilted that way for no reason. UVA looked good welcoming their new veteran QB Chandler Morris (most recently of North Texas) into the fold. Nearly 10ypa in a thorough blowout of better-than-most-G5 Coastal Carolina, a coterie of transfer WR’s leading the cause. CJ Bailey has loads of potential as the Wolfpack’s young sophomore QB. He was good in their opening win over East Carolina, but not great. He had a pick and didn’t run much besides an 11yd TD. Doeren has built enough of a reputation that they should be nearly a TD favorite against a bowl-starved program like UVA. The market is sensing weakness, and so am I.
Bet 3: Arkansas St +22.5 at Arkansas (4:00pm CT Sat 9/6, ESPN/SEC+)
Butch Jones gets a lot of crap, but he’s doing good work these days. Ark St has been FBS almost entirely since 1974 and somehow this is the first time these teams will play as FBS members. Something tells me the visitor is more excited about it. Arkansas was capable blowing out Alabama A&M last week, but this is a much fairer fight. If Arkansas rises up to win with style, so be it, but I think this will be a struggle the 22.5 will cover.
Bet 4: Boston College +145 moneyline at Michigan St (6:30pm CT Sat 9/6, NBC)
There’s a theme to these final two picks. MSU was far from predictable in year one of Jonathan Smith, starting strong, then fading, but rising up to beat a good Iowa team in the process. BC lost Week 1 hero Tommy Castellanos to FSU, but plugged in Dylan Lonergan and looked good vs a walkover FCS opponent. MSU has continued to look too shaky, specifically on offense, to not take a stab on a BC that appears on the rise under Bill O’Brien.
Best Bet (2 units): Oklahoma -4.5 (-115) vs Michigan (6:30pm CT Sat 9/6, ABC)
And my fade the state of Michigan two-step is complete. Feel free to parlay it. No doubt Underwood is a massive upgrade from last year, but that’s a subterranean bar to clear. Mateer at home is the stronger signal caller in this one, and this shapes up as a large home field advantage spot. Michigan might be the best defense Mateer will have faced in his career to date, but last year’s Jr Belichick Washington isn’t far off and Mateer steered Wazzu to the win. He’s been tested and is at home, Underwood hasn’t, and he’s gotta keep it this close in hostile Norman right away? I’ll tip my hat if the Wolverines are that game.
Good luck! (Week 1/Season: 1-4, -4.15 units)
