UVA to the rescue! The 13-pt 4th quarter comeback by the best bet Hoos helped even out the money on an otherwise 2-3, -0.2 Week 2 (wins: Cal +11.5, UVA ML x2; losses: GT, Iowa, Miss St ML). Plenty of good matchups on this week’s ledger. Volume II of SEC power visiting an upper midwest B1G foe. Notre Dame is on upset watch against another unranked team, but this time we’re actually on notice. The heat is on Colorado and Auburn among others after big Week 2 falloffs, the latter of which including a change at QB1 (RIP Peyton Thorne era). 5-0 starts now!
Bet 1: Miami OH +135 moneyline vs Cincinnati (11:00am CT Sat 9/14, ACCN; all odds via ESPN Bet)
The home team is coming off a bye, the visitor just blew a 21pt lead losing 28-27 at home to Pitt. M-OH won 11 games in a very impressive 2023 campaign, but the even though QB1 Brett Gabbert was back from injury, the offense struggled vs Northwestern. This is all about the hangover vs fresh contrast, along with home field advantage. It stinks a MAC>P4 price is just +135, but it beats -110.
Bet 2: North Texas +300 moneyline at Texas Tech (11:00am CT Sat 9/14, FS1)
We’re deep enough into this season with the possibility that TTU just isn’t worth a damn at all, that 3-1 is too good a price to not take this shot. NT has uber-seasoned former B12 QB Chandler Morris to help prepare his side for the atmosphere in Lubbock. Morris was sloppy in their Week 2 win over FCS Stephen F. Austin, but they still won by 15 and the yardage wasn’t close. TT on the other hand was taken to OT in Week 1 by similarly FCS rated (SP+) Abilene Christian, before laying an egg at Wazzu. +300 doesn’t need coin-flip, but that’s about what this game amounts to.
Bet 3: Purdue +240 moneyline vs Notre Dame (2:30pm CT Sat 9/14, CBS)
The theme is glaring, but I promise it’s just a coincidence. There’s chatter of Steve Angeli starting at QB for ND over the injured Riley Leonard. Even if that provides a spark compared to the offense on display against NIU, Purdue is extremely live. The situation is similar to Bet 1, with ND coming off a bruising, bitter loss, and Purdue hosting off a bye. Purdue looked flawless Week 1, but it was near bottom FCS level competition. They come in as essentially an unknown in terms of completed 2024 product, but the key pieces have enough track record to easily get behind. This is Ryan Walters’s signature win being served on a platter, and a healthy Hudson Card is more than good enough to lead it. ND should’ve dropped completely out of the top 25, but the error only fuels the Purdue underdog energy that carries on from coach to coach.
Bet 4: Indiana -3.5 (-110) at UCLA (6:30pm CT Sat 9/14, NBC)
The Coach Cig bandwagon is in town, saddle up! It’s only a 3.5pt spread, but the gap in coach’s egos is the biggest on the board. IU could be a gimmicky mirage, not ready for prime time in LA, but I’ll go down with the hype if that’s the case. Even if this ultimately turns into a 2023 Colorado-type conclusion, we’re still in the build-up phase. The Hoosiers’ credibility was boosted by their Week 1 (31-7 win) opponent FIU beating Central Michigan by 36 last week. UCLA is coming off a bye, but it’s going to take more than that to scare me after their middling 16-13 win at Hawaii.
Best Bet (2 units): BYU -9.5 (-110) at Wyoming (8:00pm CT Sat 9/14, CBSSN)
The #FadeWyoming campaign keeps pushing. Last week I said I’d take the FCS opponent in a hypothetical matchup instead of taking the actual FCS opponent (Idaho) they played and lost to. The Cowboys are averaging less than 200 total ypg on offense, and BYU’s defense is no slouch having just held SMU to 15pts and <300 total yards. If Wyoming scores more than 10pts, I’ll be surprised. Kalani Sitake appeared to have lost his way coming into this year, and I was skeptical myself. The progress has been too substantial to see them stooping to Wyoming’s level.
Good luck! (Week 2: 2-3, -0.2; Season: 7-7, +1.15)
