Thank God for Demond Williams! That’s my Week 4 takeaway after he and Fisch kept it rolling in my best bet to cover up some bad luck and more stupid G5 underdog plays. Bad luck in Miami (OH) losing DeQuan Finn to injury, then multiple 14pt leads, but Tulane in Oxford was DOA. 2-3 (-0.1 units) on the day with North Texas covering ugly in OT, and Purdue failing to cover by the hook when it shouldn’t have been that close. With the turn of the page from Week 4 to 5, the caliber of games shoots up dramatically. Not even the temptation for another random large G5 dog. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conlude.
Bet 1: Minnesota -4.5 (-115) vs Rutgers (11:00am CT Sat 9/27, BTN; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)
Opened at 3.5, so not cutting against the grain. At home off a bye vs no bye, blew exactly the type of win the program has been in need of last week. These teams have as incestuous a relationship as I can think of in the sport. It is simultaneously the Kirk Ciarrocca, Athan Kaliakmanis and Robb Smith bowl. And there’s probably some lesser names that could be included too. Probably no Darius Taylor for Minnesota, which hurts, but this Rutgers defense just isn’t good enough to make enough stops to keep it closer than a TD on the road. The familiarity with the Rutgers QB should redound to Fleck’s benefit.
Bet 2: Ole Miss -1.5 vs LSU (2:30pm CT Sat 9/27, ABC)
Feels like a major home field advantage spot. LSU’s Clemson win shouldn’t be seen as diminished as Clemson, but it can’t be ignored either. Blake Baker’s doing his best with the defense, but this is a step up. I was ignorant in my dismissal of Trinidad Chambliss last week, but now I’m riding the former D2 standout. All that winning experience will come in handy in taking care of the ball, not making things any easier for Nussmeier and company. Reb’s play clean, make plays to get the crowd involved, and it’ll be a trudge for LSU.
Bet 3: Washington +260 moneyline vs Ohio St (2:30pm CT Sat 9/27, CBS)
This spot makes sense for the ML instead of the points. If Washington can make it a game, it’s an environment that results in the outright win more often than not. If Patricia is able to scheme u[p some master class against Williams, they wouldn’t cover anyway. Either the Huskies capture the full force of home field advantage against the reigning champ in their conference opener, or they don’t. If they do, vs a young starter in Sayin, they win outright.
Bet 4: San Jose St +2.5 (+105) at Stanford (6:30pm CT Sat 9/27, ACCN)
The ML is only +120, so sure, why not take the 2.5 at +105. Ken Nuimatalolo with an experienced QB is so beyond live, I love this spot. Stanford pulled off an impressive upset of BC in their only prior home game, but it’s not a reliable team right now, even if their losses at BYU and UVA were to decent teams. They caught BC taking them lightly, but the chip is clearly on the shoulder of the other Bay area team. The Cardinal pass defense is one of the worst in the country, worst case scenario against a team that would like to throw it 40 times/game.
Best Bet (2 units): Penn St -3.5 (-115) vs Oregon (6:30pm CT Sat 9/27, NBC)
This is a crazy amount of respect for an Oregon team whose best win is at Northwestern. Home field advantage remains the theme of the week and concludes with a press on the white-out hosts. PSU hasn’t looked great, but they’ve been obsessed with not showing anything ahead of this game. The margin for error is non-existent for PSU to stumble here. If they lose this game, a road loss to Ohio St might be enough to nudge them out of the CFP. The program basically exists to win this big time game at home. Dante Moore’s got a nice arm. It’s a deep talented team, but this is too much.
Good luck! Week 4: 2-3 (-0.1 units); Season: 8-12 (-2.05 units)
Don’t just read about the action — join it.
Sign up for Battle Bets today, risk fake money, and win real prizes.
Our Walk-On Redshirts group runs weekly giveaways you don’t want to miss.
iOS: battlebets.app/walkonredshirts
Web: play.battlebets.app
