Woof, that was a rough Week 7. Just 1-4, not hitting the aggressive moneyline underdog in UVA (+240) after a second half surge to take the lead into the last two minutes, then seeing the naively trusted Ohio St defense get torched like a typical Autzen visitor (-4.4, win: FAU; losses: Rutgers, Illinois, UVA ML, OSU x2). UVA came way too close to jump ship on the moneyline underdog habit, but four other winners are clearly on the board to be had. Is it time to buy low on UGA, or just admit the dominance of 2021-22 isn’t around the corner? My penance in the form of five rock solid winners.

Bet 1: Cincinnati -5.5 (-110) vs Arizona St (11:00am CT Sat 10/19, ESPN+; all odds via ESPN Bet)

Kenny Dillingham’s crew added to the wonder story with the win vs Utah last week, losing QB1 Leavitt in the process. In steps Jeff Sims to try and keep the momentum rolling for a cross country kick at 9am Tempe time (will be 10am once daylight savings time ends). I’m very skeptical the transition will be smooth. They’ll feed Skattebo as much as possible, but his home/road splits were crazy when they still had QB1. Cincinnati is a strong 4-2 with just a one point loss to undefeated Pitt, and three point loss to TTU in Lubbock. Sitting in wait, a TD+ win is the minimum expectation.

Bet 2: Illinois +155 moneyline vs Michigan (2:30pm CT Sat 10/19, CBS)

Why not? If this was your same ole Illini tease, they find a way to lose the Purdue game after blowing the big lead. Michigan with Tuttle off the bye is more of an unknown, with admitted upside, but their price is still being influenced by the reputation of ’21-23. Illinois took their foot off the gas vs Purdue, more a sign of a team inexperienced with success than incapable of playing at the level necessary to beat this year’s Michigan team. I think Bielema is able to coach off it, UM remains a flawed offense, and the homefield advantages carries the day.

Bet 3: San Jose St -11.5 (-110) vs Wyoming (3:00pm CT Sat 10/19, MWN)

#FadeWyoming returns after their win against horrid Air Force and loss to crummy SDSU. Niumatalolo’s boys lost last week at Colorado St, but it was a close game with 450 yards of offense undone by 100+ in penalties. The Spartans are juggling two QB’s nicely, inserting Walker Eget for the prior starter Emmett Brown two weeks ago in a win over Nevada. Both saw action last week. Even if SJSU’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, this 265ypg Wyoming offense will not be able to hang around absent a crazy turnover edge.

Bet 4: Iowa at Michigan St over 39.5 (-105) (6:30pm CT Sat 10/19, NBC)

Iowa overs, what a time to be alive! Their total has gone over 39 in 5 of 6 games, and it was 39 in the other. This is a different form of football than the tortured punt plus turnover alchemy we were subjected to for 2-3 years too long. MSU’s offense slowed down dramatically on the way from 3-0 to 3-3, but they’re off the bye with Jonathan Smith expected to make corrections to his side of the ball. If it gets bogged down into a field goal fest, the pace probably won’t be enough to get there, but Iowa is blocking their way into the end zone and I expect some tricks in MSU’s early chances to get Chiles confidence going.

Best Bet (2 units): UConn -1 (-110) vs Wake Forest (11:00am CT Sat 10/19, CBSSN)

I’m obsessed with this game! Wake has been my whipping boy, and now I get to bet a plucky UConn at home laying just a point! UConn was outclassed in their opener at Maryland, but that’s the equivalent of a lifetime ago at this point. Wake pulled off the upset in their only prior road game at NCST two weeks ago before getting blown out by Clemson last week. The step down in competition may slow UConn up for a bit, but the trajectories and motivations are too divergent to not jump on Jim Mora’s squad. P4’s don’t visit UConn often, don’t let this one off the hook.

Good luck! (Week 7: 1-4, -4.4; Season: 19-19-1, +1.2)