Stability was restored after the disaster of Week 7, and the moneyline underdog train got back on track thanks to an Illini win that was never in doubt. If not for the horrible beat allowed by San Jose St in the final minute, it would’ve been a really good week (3-2, +0.25; wins: Cincy, IL ML, Iowa-MSU over; losses: SJSU, UConn x2). The moneyline underdog choice is only getting more aggressive, as for the rest of the board it remains to be seen if the large favorite non-cover trend will persist. Since the B1G has been much better to me than the rest of the sport, I’ll continue to lean into it. More teams, more to choose from. 5-0 below.
Bet 1: Missouri +15.5 (-110) at Alabama (2:30pm CT Sat 10/26, ABC; all odds via ESPN Bet)
“Get right game” isn’t really a thing anymore for Alabama in this transition season. Maybe they blowout likely-overrated Mizzou, but it’s not a 50/50 proposition. This Tide team is not as good as what the brand was used to. If anything, it’s confirming how much Saban overachieved with them last year. He was able to leave on a very respectable note of getting them to a semi, nearly beating the eventual champs. In reality, they had no business getting that far (thanks Auburn). Hopefully an ugly slog like most of the Tennessee game, and Mizzou can cover without even needing to threaten outright.
Bet 2: Texas Tech at TCU over 65.5 (-110) (2:30pm CT Sat 10/26, Fox)
Each team has already given up 59+ points at least once in B12 play. TCU had to slow it down in their ugly win over Utah last week, and TTU will let them get back to shootouts. TTU is giving up 466ypg and is 124th in scoring defense, Josh Hoover should resume the big numbers we saw through most of September. The winner of this game is topping 40 points.
Bet 3: Wisconsin +200 moneyline vs Penn St (6:30pm CT Sat 10/26, NBC)
Considering how narrow PSU’s escape at heavily-flawed USC was, this spread is stupid. PSU has only really blown out Kent St since Week 1. Good for Allar for making the clutch plays on 4th downs, but that’s not a sustainable way to pull out games. UW is looking better than at any point in the Fickell era, and Camp Randall will be rocking. The UW optimism could be counterfeit thanks to weak competition, but 2-1 is well worth the shot. A hot home team with the pride of Wisconsin is no walkover for a James Franklin team.
Bet 4: Cincinnati +6.5 (-105) at Colorado (9:15pm CT Sat 10/26, ESPN)
Everybody is on Colorado, so I’ll take the other side. For whatever reason, the Buffs have been much better on the road than at home. Their home games almost always come down to the final seconds. Cincinnati is continuing one of the quietest turnaround seasons in the country. From 3-9 to 5-2 with a 1pt loss to still undefeated Pitt, and a 3pt loss to TTU in Lubbock. Blowing out the Bearcats looks easy during the week, but proves really hard come game day.
Best Bet (2 units): Michigan St +4.5 (-115) at Michigan (6:30pm CT Sat 10/26, BTN)
Prisoner of the moment play, but I don’t care. MSU looks so much more dynamic on offense, if Chiles avoids a turnover meltdown, hard to see how they don’t hang around. Sparty went through the two game OSU-Oregon gauntlet and came out of their bye looking ready to attack the second half. Michigan doesn’t have any real apparent direction. The rivalry factor will get their attention, but there’s no there there for Sherron Moore to tap into. If they win, it won’t be a recreation of their 2021-23 flexes.
Good luck! (Week 8: 3-2, +0.25; Season: 22-21-1, +1.45)
