Why this conference is fun
It’s right there in the name. The Fun Belt.
Or is it?
It does feel like the conference has lost a bit of its charm over the years. Maybe it is the loss of Curt Cignetti to Indiana. Maybe it is the loss of Jamey Chadwell to Liberty. Both coaches gave those teams an identity that they may have lost over the years. (Coastal more than JMU.)
Programs such as App State, Louisiana, Southern Miss and South Alabama seem to be lacking a little juice. And it shouldn’t go unnoticed also that Texas St. – one of the most explosive offenses in all of college football over the past couple years – is now gone to the Pac-12. They have been replaced by a Louisiana Tech team that makes sense geographically, but won’t move the needle from a entertainment standpoint.
So I guess the “fun” lies in the conference’s unpredictability. Both divisions feel pretty wide open, meaning anyone can win any given week.
Top Tier Teams (in predicted order of finish)
Louisiana (1st in West)
This may be one of those rare years where the West Division is more interesting than the East Division.
Quarterback Lunch Winfield returns after leading Louisiana to wins in 4 of their last 5 games. There are also four starters on the OL and an all-conference caliber WR in Shelton Sampson. If they find a RB to give some balance, this offense could hum. Defensively there are certainly holes to fill, but at this level, you just hope you hit on a couple transfers and trust the system.
Aside from a road trip at USC, there aren’t many games that strike fear in Ragin Cajun Nation. The crossover games are against Coastal Carolina and at Georgia St. Arkansas St., Troy and South Alabama all come to Lafayette. This feels like the team to beat.
Marshall (1st in East)
There is opportunity in the East Division as well. With so much turnover, the team that might have the most stability is the Thundering Herd.
Returning at QB is Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who put up modest numbers to the untrained eye. But 17 TDs and only 5 INTs will put you in position to win a lot of games. The 660 rushing yards were a luxury. He has enough weapons at WR to improve that TD total and maybe decrease the need to scramble.
The defense is what it is. Not great. And road games at JMU, ODU and Georgia Southern are not ideal. I just think second-year coach Tony Gibson can figure things out.
Troy (2nd in West)
This isn’t your older brother’s Troy Trojans.
This team doesn’t hang its hat on defense in a historically dominant way like Jon Sumrall’s teams did in 22 and 23. In fact, they may not even be good by any measurable metric at the G6 level. The hope for this team lies with QB Goose Crowder and his ability and willingness to sling it in new OC Adam Austin’s offense.
Austin comes from Tarleton State, one of the most potent offenses at the FCS level. He has a chance to make an impact at this level. And the home schedule (Sam Houston, Alabama State, Southern Miss, ULM, Louisiana Tech, Georgia Southern) offers this a soft floor. If they find a couple road wins, this team will challenge.
Georgia Southern (2nd in East)
This is my G6 crush.
Point to their terrible defense. Point to their coaching and whether or not Clay Helton is the right guy. I don’t care. This team is fun as hell, and if they put it all together, they can be a real problem.
Quarterbacking this Eagle squad is former LSU, Texas A&M and UNC Quarterback Max Johnson. Skill has never really been the issue, rather staying healthy. He doesn’t have the skill position weapons that JC French did (French transferred to Cincinnati) but this team generally does a good job finding players in the portal.
The defense may not be world beaters, but if they are competent, the conference schedule breaks pretty well for them (JMU, App State and Marshall all come to Statesboro). This may be the darkest of darkhorses, but worth a longshot.
James Madison (3rd in East)
It could be a case of “the more things change, the more they stay the same” for the Dukes. But I kinda doubt it.
Ever since they entered the Sun Belt 5 years ago, they have made an impact. Curt Cignetti paved the way before winning a National Championship at Indiana. Bob Chesney kept the train rolling to a College Football Playoff birth before going to Westwood. Now the program is in the hands of Sun Belt Billy. Billy Napier is now HC. His stint at Florida was mid at best, but people forget that to even get that job he made his mark in this conference for the Ragin Cajuns. This might be his comfort zone.
Leading the offense will be…..uh….that part is unclear. And I just don’t fully trust teams choosing from 4 candidates to run their offense. Also, it’s not impossible Napier has lost his fastball. Look for teams to focus on stopping all-conference RB George Pettaway until given a reason not to.
Wild Cards
Old Dominion (4th in East)
The Monarchs generally built the entire plane out of Colton Joseph last year, which got them to a 10-win season. Joseph is taking his talents to Madison, Wisconsin, RB Devin Roche is very good, but without any returners on the OL or to throw to, he will be the focus for the time being. Quinn Henicle will take over at QB and looked very good in a Cure Bowl win over USF, but I don’t put a lot of stock in a sample size of one during the season of opt-outs.
Defensively, this might be the best squad in the conference. So it’s good that defense travels, as they have road games at Virginia Tech (which….you know….), App State, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana Tech and UConn. I don’t think they’ll win 10 again, but they are pretty confidently a bowl team.
Louisiana Tech (3rd in West)
How do 8 wins in CUSA translate to the Sun Belt? Louisiana Tech is about to tell us.
The Bulldogs arrive to their new digs with two cornerstones at their position (TE Eli Finley and LB Kolbe Fields) who may immediately be the best in the conference at their positions. If QB Blake Baker returns healthy from his torn ACL, he offers another reason for Bulldog faithful to be optimistic. (If he isn’t, Trey Kukuk will likely take starter snaps.)
Road games at South Alabama, Troy and Georgia Southern won’t be easy. There are also in-state battles against Louisiana (in Ruston) and at UL Monroe that probably have both teams licking their chops. But no one is likely to run away with the West Division. Why not La Tech?
Appalachian State (5th in East)
Even though it is only Year 2, this feels like an important one for HC Dowell Loggains.
The hire raised eyebrows to begin with. And a 5-8 record didn’t instill much confidence. But at this level, so much depends on getting the QB position right. And with incoming transfers Malachi Singleton (Purdue) and Henry Hasselbeck arriving, they hope to hit on one of those. Loggains made his name as an offensive mastermind, and Boone is still a difficult place to win for road teams, so don’t expect this team to be down for long.
Arkansas State (4th in West)
Gone is QB Jaylen Raynor and WR Corey Rucker, who were vital pieces to last year’s bowl team. But it’s possible neither will be missed as much as you might think.
In comes former Texas transfer Trey Owens, a more traditional dropback passer. And while Rucker is gone, the Red Wolves still have receivers Chauncy Cobb and Hunter Summers to throw to and RB Devin Spencer to hand off to. Three returners on the OL also assist. The Oct. 3 game at Louisiana will set the tone for the West Division. If Arkansas St. pulls off the win, this will be way too low for them.
South Alabama (5th in West)
USA gives similar vibes to App State in the East. The talent is always there, but the coach is at a Make or Break season.
Quarterback Bishop Davenport returns after starting all 12 of the Jaguar games last year. But the team finished 4-8 so…..cool I guess? I think he can run Major Applewhite’s offense, but there isn’t a lot of production returning around him. Defensively, they bring in Todd Orlando to fix that side of the ball. Is there enough for him to work with?
Would be surprised if they made a Bowl
Coastal Carolina (6th in East)
First things first, I like the hire of new HC Ryan Beard. He’s young, creative and may remind people a bit of Jamey Chadwell. But I do think it will take some time.
One of 4 candidates will win the QB job, but all are relatively unproven. They hit the portal hard to fill depth along the rest of the offense too, so there is a giant question mark on that side of the ball. Defensively, they do return 4 starters from last year and bring players over from Missouri State. So there is that. It just feels like a year that will require patience in Myrtle Beach. But there are worse places to be patient.
UL Monroe (6th in West)
There are glimpses of hope in Monroe.
For one, third-year coach Bryant Vincent is establishing an identity. The Warhawks can run the ball. (Remember Ahmad Hardy started there two years ago.) This year, they will have former Hurricane and Louisville Cardinal Donald Chaney toting the rock. They also bring back returning QB Aidan Armenta. He didn’t put up eye-popping numbers, but stability is key anywhere you can find it. Home games against Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss offer chances for conference wins. They probably have a ceiling of 5 wins, but they won’t be overwhelmed often.
Southern Miss (7th in West)
As much as I like the hire of Beard at Coastal, I question the hire of Blake Anderson in Hattiesburg just as much.
It feels like stability has been lacking the past couple of years at Southern Miss. Will Hall was there a couple years, then fired. In comes Charles Huff, who led the Golden Eagles to a bowl, then bounced to Memphis. Now he is replaced by another guy who doesn’t tend to stay in one place too long (and might be problematic). I just kinda need someone to make it make sense.
The only returning starter on either side of the ball is the Center. Though I do like incoming transfer Ethan Hampton (most notably at Northern Illinois) as a stabilizing force. There is just a lot going on here that doesn’t instill much confidence otherwise.
Georgia State (7th in East)
Shawn Elliott might be a miracle worker.
It’s not long ago that the Panthers were one of the teams considered in the thick of the East Division race. But in the College Football world, life moves at you fast. Elliott took a job at South Carolina, and Georgia State was left scrambling and have yet to recover. Dell McGee came in two years ago, and the Panthers have won 4 of their last 24 games. Not great.
Returning is quarterback Cameran Brown, who showed flashes. But he also had NFL Draft pick Ted Hurst to throw to. Hurst is gone, with a lot unproven being asked to step up.
The good news is, there are winnable games being played in Atlanta. North Carolina A&T (even though they are a good FCS school), Northern Illinois, ODU, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern and Louisiana all are home games. Getting a couple of those early will be a huge confidence boost. Lose early? Lose often.
Five Games to Circle
Oct. 3: Marshall at James Madison – A tone setter for the Sun Belt East in early October. This home tilt is sandwiched in between road conference games at Old Dominion and Georgia Southern. So JMU gets thrown into the fire right away. Marshall’s non-conference schedule gives them opportunities to build confidence (I’ll get to that in a bit). A Thundering Herd win here and the East gets very interesting very quickly.
Oct. 10: Louisiana at Louisiana Tech/James Madison at Georgia Southern – JMU at Georgia Southern is either a must-win for the preseason conference favorites, or a classic letdown spot. But it also isn’t the only conference game of interest on that day.
In the West Division, we have the game that basically convinced the Bulldogs to join the conference. They wanted in-state rivalries. The Ragin Cajuns will be their Huckleberry. But if the Bulldogs get the W, then they may just take the whole division by storm.
Oct. 15: Georgia Southern at Old Dominion – Georgia Southern at Old Dominion is either a must-win for a team who may be playing for their coach’s job, or a classic letdown spot five days after a JMU win. A Thursday night game in Norfolk, what could be better?
Oct. 17: Troy at Louisiana – All of these games listed are within a two week period. It wasn’t unintentional, but the reality is this conference is wide open. So this could either be a must-win for a team expected to contend in the West, or a classic letdown after beating an in-state rival. Maybe check who Troy plays next week if you are noticing a pattern.
Predicting the Futures (Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 08/02)
Marshall Over 7.5 Wins (-104)
If you are ever going to play at Penn State, Week One of a new era is the time to do it.
I’m not saying they will win in Happy Valley, but it’s not the craziest thought in the world. And following that up with Middle Tennessee, at Missouri St. and Gardner-Webb to finish off the non-conference slate suggests 3-1 is the worst case scenario. From there, take care of the home games (Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Appalachian St., Georgia St.) and win the season finale at UL Monroe and you get to 8 wins.
Louisiana to make the Conference Championship game (+280)
Sure, it’s not the best value. But there is certainly a chance that they rise above the chaos.
You get Troy, South Alabama and Arkansas St. all coming to Lafayette. You leave the state twice in conference play, at Southern Miss and at Georgia St. Both teams may bring up the rear in their respective divisions. You could honestly play Louisiana to win the conference, at +750, or just take your winnings here and rol over accordingly.
Old Dominion Under 7.5 Wins (+102)
Aside from the season opener against Norfolk State and probably the season finale against Southern Miss, the schedule is littered with swing games. Which means if they go 5-5, that probably puts them at only 7 wins. And I know they have Virginia Tech’s number, but Week 2 in Blacksburg under James Franklin is a game the Hokies absolutely have circled. Also, you never know what to expect with non-conference foes East Carolina and UConn. At Louisiana Tech could be a challenge. There is just too much unpredictability to expect 8-4 or greater from a team who lost their quarterback to a Power 5 school.
If you’ve enjoyed this article, please go follow us on social media X: @walkonredshirts, Instagram: Walk-On Redshirts, Facebook: Walk-On Redshirts, and like and subscribe to our YouTube: Walk-On Redshirts. You can follow me specifically on X: @justincripe
