It feels like since the arrival of Dynasty Mode in College Football 25, the popularity of the Group of 5 is rivaled by talking about politics and the Hawk Tuah girl. While that is all well and good, come this Fall, there is a real life application to knowing the starting quarterback for Ball St. or running back for UTEP. That’s where your resident G5 Huckleberry comes in.

Last year as my way of generating conference previews, I combined my two passions – G5 and gambling – to attempt to both educate and win you dear readers a little bit of spending money. You may have even purchased the aforementioned video game if you followed my advice last year betting the Under on Navy. So we are going to take that approach again this year. Each conference I will give 3 win totals that I would actually bet real money on, while sprinkling in some analysis along the way. While I would love to do the deepest of dives on all of the G5 teams, I just don’t have that kind of time. I will provide a predicted order of finish at the end and would be more than happy to chat about those rankings on any of our socials. (@justincripe, @walkonredshirts)

Before we begin, a couple self-imposed rules:

• No values worse than -140. I just don’t have it in me to wait 3 months for a payout so minimal. Juice is for breakfast.
• I did the legwork to find the best value for you between FanDuel, DraftKings and ESPN BET as of July 15. If you have a gambling site of choice, you do you Boo. Don’t say I’m not trying to help.
  

So, without further adieu, here are 3 Futures to bet in the AAC. Thank me at the pay window.

Tulane Over 7.5 wins (-120 on DraftKings)

I say this knowing full well that Tulane lost an NFL Draft pick (Michael Pratt) at quarterback and a stud receiver Chris Brazzell to Tennessee. I also know that Memphis exists. But this team could very well have the best skill talent in the conference.

Let’s start with what is returning. All-conference running back Makhi Hughes and his nearly 1,400 rushing yards are back, along with 3 starters on the offensive line and both starting tight ends. Stepping in to replace Pratt is former 4-star Oregon recruit Ty Thompson (assuming he beats out Kai Horton) and a stable of receivers from USC (Mario Williams), Alabama (Shazz Preston), LSU (Khai Prean) will team with Phat Watts and Yulkeith Brown to replace Brazzell’s production.

That’s a lot of new for also new coach Jon Sumrall to make work together. But if it does, this offense can be scary.

Before talking about the D, I should say something. I firmly believe is that there are no real standout defenses in the G5 anymore. The last one was Troy, coached by…Sumrall. If there is a strength of this Green Wave D, it is on the front line. Late portal addition Adin Huntington (DL from Louisiana-Monroe) may be a difference maker opposite all-conference end Patrick Jenkins.

So now that I have put all that out there, the top 2 teams in the AAC universally appear to be Memphis and Tulane. Luckily, that is being played in New Orleans in the season finale. But to get there, they need to get off to a good start with games at home against SE Louisiana and Kansas St. before back-to-back road games at Oklahoma and Louisiana. They also get conference darkhorse USF at home and don’t play UTSA. Road games at UAB, North Texas, Charlotte and Navy are all tricky but ultimately winnable. Add to that home games against Rice and Temple and there should be at least 8 wins to be found, possibly even before Thanksgiving.

UAB Over 6.5 wins (+122 on FanDuel)

The key to winning an Over/Under Win total bet is determining what from last year translates to this year. Here is what I know about Trent Dilfer’s squad. They put up points. No, it wasn’t consistent. The whole Blazer squad felt like they were flying by the seat of their pants. But you could see the signs from the offense. Ask South Florida and Florida Atlantic about their offense firepower. Now it is time to fine tune things to take that next step.

Here is something else I think I know, UAB’s schedule sets up well for them to get off to a great start. They face Alcorn St. at home to start the season, then go to Louisiana-Monroe to face a Warhawks squad still finding itself under new coach Bryant Vincent. After that they head to Fayetteville to take on an Arkansas squad that might by playing for Sam Pittman’s job before coming back home to open conference play against Navy. 3-1 is very reasonable before Tulane comes to town. Add to that home games with Tulsa, Connecticut and Rice along with road tilts at Army and a finale at a Charlotte team that might be much improved or still finding itself under Biff Poggi.

Road games against South Florida and Memphis will be tough, but this conference will be full of 49-42 shootouts. And some team is bound to take a 2023 South Florida-like move up the standings. Give me the team with the most boom or bust potential.

Rice Under 6.5 Wins (+125 on ESPN BET)

This is not a knock on a team that I was actually high on last year if you clicked the hyperlink I posted above. But Rice is not exactly a model of consistency. Optimists can point to increased win totals every year since 2020 and a plethora of returning talent and expect that trend to continue (which would allow the Over to hit). But skeptics may look to losses against Connecticut and a 3-game skid against Tulane, SMU and UTSA and think that Rice is good enough to beat the teams they are supposed to but not quite good enough to beat the upper echelon teams in the conference. And oh by the way, they lose NFL Draft Pick Luke McCaffrey at receiver. That reads like a 6-6 team to me.

But it is time to ask the question that everyone else is afraid to ask.

Is EJ Warner really the guy to take them to the next level?

Sure, he has put up very good numbers over the course of his two years at Temple, but it hasn’t exactly resulted in wins. Does the talent upgrade with this set of Owls have what it takes to go to Tulane and Memphis and leave with a win? What about at city rival Houston or high-scoring UAB? Because those are real games on their schedule. Army and Connecticut are the two other road games, and I’m not ready to say Rice is demonstrably better than either of those teams. The home slate features Sam Houston, Texas Southern, Charlotte, UTSA, Navy and a season finale against South Florida. I just think the road schedule is too tough. They are talented enough to get to a bowl, but 6-6 feels like their ceiling.

Predicted order of finish:

1. Tulane
2. Memphis
3. South Florida
4. UTSA
5. UAB
6. Army
7. Rice
8. North Texas
9. Navy
10. Florida Atlantic
11. Charlotte
12. East Carolina
13. Tulsa
14. Temple