Predicting the G5 Futures: Mountain West

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This is me coming in a bit hot, but the Mountain West is the best conference in the Group of 5 this year.

I say this knowing there have been some recent developments that have changed the outlooks for a couple teams. (Namely coaching changes at Utah St. and Fresno St.) But taking a broad view of the conference, I feel strongly that there is a clear Top 3 (Boise St., Fresno St., UNLV) in whatever order you may have them. And that Top 3 is better than the Top 3 in any other G5 conference. Add to that the depth in the MW with teams like Air Force, Colorado St. and changes at Wyoming, San Diego St., San Jose St. (and others), plus whatever impact Oregon St. and Washington St. have, and this conference is going to be a lot of fun.

But what’s also fun is winning money. And that is what I am here for. As long as we ignore last year.

So here are 3 Futures I would recommend within the conference. (I will note that because of the recent firing of Gary Anderson as head coach and unfortunate drowning of cornerback Andre Seldon Jr., it didn’t feel right to figure them into this. Some things are bigger than silly Over/Unders.) But if you have thoughts, hit me up on the socials. (@walkonredshirts, @justincripe)

If you haven’t checked out the columns I have written for the AAC, Conference USA or the MAC, here are a couple rules:

No values worse than -140. I just don’t have it in me to wait 3 months for a payout so minimal. Juice is for breakfast.
I did the legwork to find the best value for you between FanDuel, DraftKings and ESPN BET as of July 15. If you have a gambling site of choice, that’s fine. You do you. Don’t say I’m not trying to help.

Boise St. Over 9.5 Wins (+108 on FanDuel)

I said this before in my Portal Winners and Losers column, but I think this team represents the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff.

Quarterback Malachi Nelson is one of the most impactful transfers that came through the portal this season. Him combined with running back Ashton Jeanty provides a combination on offense certainly not matched by many teams in the conference, if not the country if Nelson is as advertised.

While starting the season at Georgia Southern is a G5 Fan’s dream, it’s ultimately a game the Broncos should win. The follow-up at Oregon is the bigger concern. Assuming a 1-1 record to begin, the rest of the schedule appears tricky with two more back-to-back road weeks. (At Hawaii and at UNLV in October and at San Jose St. before a trip to Laramie in November.) The home games are nothing to be too concerned about, including both Oregon St. and Washington St., and there is no Air Force or Fresno St. to be found. There will be a conference trip up on the road somewhere, and the defense has some work to do to be considered a force, but 10-2 feels realistic for this team.

San Diego St. Over 5.5 Wins (+105 on DraftKings)

The Aztecs are about to play a style of offense which hasn’t been seen since the days of Marshall Faulk.

Sorry, I wrote that wrong.

The Aztecs are about to play a style of offense. Which hasn’t been seen since the days of Marshall Faulk.

New coach Sean Lewis – who was last seen not coordinating Colorado’s offense while they were in the midst of a collapse – will be the new head man in the hometown of Ron Burgundy. He is bringing with him a high-tempo offense that was actually good enough to make Kent St. relevant for a hot minute.

Lewis will be implementing what he is calling “AztecFast”, an up-tempo style of football designed to wear down the opposing defense. Leading the attack is Florida St. transfer AJ Duffy. There’s not a lot of data on Duffy at FSU, as he was behind Jordan Travis, Tate Rodamaker and others on the depth chart. How quickly he grasps the offense is the key to the Over hitting.

If the offense takes off early, the schedule gives opportunities for the Aztecs to get off to a very good start. After the opener against Texas A&M-Commerce, they host Oregon St. (They host Washington St. later in the season and for the record I think both those teams are mid at best. So getting them as home games is advantageous to any Mountain West teams lucky enough to do so.) They then travel to California, who is coming back from a trip to Auburn and preparing for another trip next week at Florida St. They could be ripe for the picking here. After a bye week, SDSU goes to Central Michigan in what could be secretly one of the most entertaining games in all of the Group of 5. Following that, they host Hawaii. If the defense is halfway decent and the offense is clicking, 5-0 is possible.

The second half of the schedule does have road trips at Wyoming, at Boise and at UNLV and a home game against Air Force to end the season. But there are also games against New Mexico and at Utah St. And another team that avoids Fresno St. We just need San Diego St. to get to 6-6 to hit the Over. Barring a horrific inability to figure out Lewis’s offense, that can be done.

San Jose St. Under 4.5 Wins (-115 on ESPN BET and FanDuel)

One of the more interesting coaching hires was San Jose St. hiring former Navy head man Ken Niumatalolo to replace new Arizona Wildcat leader Brent Brennan.

Ken (sorry I’m not typing that last name out again) inherits a team at the worst possible time, when they are attempting to replace a record-setting quarterback. Chevan Cordeiro is finally out of eligibility, and his replacement is going to be unproven. Also gone are 16 other starters.

After a home win against Sacramento St., the Spartans get an early conference game at Air Force before resuming their non-con against a Kennesaw St. team that shouldn’t be very good. Then they go to Washington St. before hosting a Nevada team trying to find its identity. A likely 3-2 record is a good start right? Well let’s take a look at the second half.

At Colorado St. Wyoming at home. At Fresno St. At Oregon St. (Remember me saying earlier getting the Pac-2 as home games was good? SJSU gets them both on the road.) And a three game home stretch to end the season gives them Boise St., UNLV and Stanford.

5-7 is possible, but this just feels like a 4-8 season. Either way, I get the impression this will be a longer-term build rather than a quick fix.

Predicted Order of Finish