Substantial progress was made from Week 1 to Week 2, but there’s still room to grow. I stopped the bleeding of a 1-4 start, hit best bet Oklahoma and a sneaky Baylor comeback. I burned money on another stupid G5 reach with Arkansas St, but UVA was very live and only went down by the hook. BC had the highest expected win percentage of any Week 2 loser at 75.4% per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. It all adds up to 2-3 (-0.35 units). Week 3 feels like the hybrid bridge linking non-con to conference. The SEC starts in earnest after last week’s one-off, the B1G starts with their two biggest West Coast brands coming to the Midwest as heavy favorites (wouldn’t want to have them make the trip in tougher stretch!). ACC teams continue to play each other, but check the fine print on whether it’s actually conference game. 4 winners in chronological order with a 2-unit best bet to conlude.
Bet 1: Temple +23.5 (+100) vs Oklahoma (11:00am CT Sat 9/13, ESPN2; all odds via ESPN Bet on ESPN scoreboard)
It could be a complete sucker play buying Temple high and ignoring that Oklahoma could be one of the country’s most improved teams with haul of the offseason in Mateer. I’m taking the other side though since there are just as many warning signs for OU. A blue blood going on the road to Temple between a big home defeat of Michigan and the SEC home opener against Auburn next week is as trappy a spot as I can think of. Now add to it that the home dog has an experienced QB off to a hot start in Evan Simon (ex-Rutgers) and a new coach in KC Keeler. The talent gap will have to do all the work for OU, the intangibles won’t.
Bet 2: South Alabama at Auburn over 54.5 (-105) (11:45am CT Sat 9/13, SECN)
South Alabama was meh in their opener but came out hot against a very good Tulane defense at home last week. Bishop Davenport backed up Gio Lopez last year getting plenty of work and it shows. Auburn defense is floating high after beating up on Ball St, but the reality is that closer to South Alabama getting 20+ and this game getting into the 60’s.
Bet 3: Texas Tech -23.5 (+100) vs Oregon St (2:30pm CT Sat 9/13, Fox)
I was higher than pretty much anyone outside of Lubbock on TTU preseason. I see a 2022 TCU-like breakout raring to go with a crazy high finish, not just CFP appearance. Oregon St started 0-2 at home and is now going to Texas Tech and Oregon on consecutive Saturdays. If this isn’t hell on earth for the Beavs, it as close as possible. Behren Moerton is a week further removed from his nuisance injury in their opener. TTU is hell bent on getting to the CFP and is going to keep being ruthless in terms of style points as insurance against a failed Big 12 champion path.
Bet 4: Iowa -34.5 vs Massachusetts (6:30pm CT Sat 9/13, BTN)
This bet would get you committed to an insane asylum two years ago, but I’m not throwing in the towel on the Mark Gronowski era in Iowa City. But the real star here is UMass and how they managed to hire the majority of recent Northwestern assistant coaches that helped guide Pat Fitzgerald to a 1-17 finish. Now Fitzgerald is a buddy of the Iowa program and can dish on them to Iowa. UMass didn’t just blow a 20-3 lead to FCS Bryant last week, they were outgained by them too. Iowa can’t afford to lick their wounds from the loss to ISU, the offense will be at its best of the short season here.
Best Bet (2 units): Cal +130 moneyline vs Minnesota (9:30pm CT Sat 9/13, ESPN)
PJ Fleck has been gushing about his team, and after lacking style in their opening win over Buffalo, they backed it up with a flawless 59-0 first half against FCS Northwestern St. Cal’s 2-0 after a win in Corvallis and an FCS blowout of their own. Minnesota might be the better team, but going out to Berkeley for a late kick just ahead of conference season tilts things towards Cal for me. +130 on Gopher QB Drake Lindsey’s coming out party having to wait for another day.
Good luck! Week 2: 2-3 (-0.35 units); Season: 3-7 (-4.5 units)
